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Colorado Economic and Fiscal OutlookLauren Larson - Director Luke Teater - Deputy Director
May 12, 2020
The speed of the economic contraction is unprecedented and the path to recovery
remains uncertain
Job Loss Relative to Peak Employment
Unemployment Claims by County through April 25th
Average UI Claim Rate
Eastern 9.2%
Front Range 11.5%
Mountain 21.6%
Southern 11.3%
Western 17.4%
Unemployment hits industries with lower wage earners
What a recovery could look like
General Fund revenue forecasts were revised significantly downward from March
-
Estimated Revenue Impacts of CARES Act’s Tax Provisions
FY 19-20 FY 20-21 FY 21-22
Individual Income Tax $75 million $222 million $41 million
Corporate Income Tax $11 million $50 million $27 million
Declining revenues are driving a significant budget shortfall
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Questions?
Appendix
Table 1: Colorado Economic Variables-History & Forecast
Table 2: National Economic Variables-History & Forecast
Table 3: General Fund Revenue Estimates by Tax Category
Table 4: General Fund Overview
Table 5: General Fund & State Education Fund Overview
Table 6: Cash Fund Revenue Subject to TABOR
Table 7: TABOR and the Referendum C Revenue Limit