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ECMWF involvement in theDRR/SEE programme
• Conclusion of co-operation agreements with: The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia☺ Bosnia & Herzegovina
(agreed by the ECMWF Council, signature outstanding)? Albania• Provision of Metview software to: Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Montenegro the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Sarajevo March 2011
ECMWFan independent intergovernmental organisation
established in 1975
with
18 Member States16 Co-operating States
Sarajevo March 2011
Benefits of becoming aCo-operating State
• Full access to – ECMWF real-time products– archive data– software tools
• RMDCN link• Commercial use of ECMWF products• User support• Access to ECMWF Web Server• Access to ECMWF training facilities, user meetings
Sarajevo March 2011
Benefits of becoming aCo-operating State (cont)
• Visit to and from ECMWF• Member of the Advisory Committee for Co-operating States
(ACCS)• Attend Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), Advisory
Committee for Data Policy (ACDP) • Recruitment of staff• Participation to Optional projects (BC LAM)
Sarajevo March 2011
MARS
Custom DB
ODB
Archives Local files
+
What is Metview?
• Data:– Access – Examine– Manipulate– Plot / Overlay
• Can be run interactively or in batch• Can be easily installed and runs self-contained standalone
– From laptops to large servers– No special data servers required
Sarajevo March 2011
What can Metview visualise?
• High quality contouring• Automatic and
user specified titles• Automatic legends • WMO observation plotting• Visualisation of feedback data• Display of satellite data • Supports geographical and
Cartesian projections• Allows users to control layout
of plots on pages
Sarajevo March 2011
ECMWF: a component of the EMI
Information Systems and services – Analyses, forecasts and
support to decision making climate monitoring
– Archiving and reanalysis – Methods, tools and know-how– Web, push and pull services.
Sarajevo March 2011
National Met Services
EUMETSAT(satellites)
ECMWF
EUMETNET/EUCOS(others)
Shared and coordinated observation systems and related services
EUMETNET
Users/Customers/Decision-makersUsers/Customers/Decision-makers
Summary of the strategy for ECMWF 2006 – 2015
Principal goal
• Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global,medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort onearly warnings of severe weather events
Complementary goals
• To improve the quality and scope of monthly andseasonal-to-inter-annual forecasts
• To deliver real-time analyses and forecasts of atmospheric composition• To carry out climate monitoring through regular re-analyses of the
Earth-system• To contribute towards the optimization of the Global Observing System
Sarajevo March 2011
Global observations
Users National weather services
Sarajevo March 2011
Global weather forecasts
Severe Weather
• ECMWF forecasts are used by its Member States and Co-operating States to provide early warnings of severe weather
• ECMWF has developed a number of products to assist our users in this work
• Member States and Co-operating States have also developed their own applications for specific warnings using ECMWF forecasts as input
• ECMWF supports WMO members by providing products for severe weather forecasting, in particular ECMWF contributes to the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects
Sarajevo March 2011
Sarajevo March 2011
Extreme forecast index (EFI)• Used as an “alarm bell” to alert forecasters to possible
extreme events• Forecasters can then look in more detail
Sarajevo March 2011
valid for 24hours from Wednesday 01 July 2009 at 00 UTC to Thursday 02 July 2009 at 00 UTCand EFI values for Total precipitation,maximum 10m wind gust and mean 2m temperature (all 24h)1000 hPa Z ensemble mean ( Wednesday 01 July 2009 at 12 UTC)Anomalous weather predicted by EPS: Sunday 28 June 2009 at 00 UTC
60°E40°E20°E20°W40°W60°W
20°E20°W
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
60°E
40°E
40°W
60°W
88
8
8
8
8
16
16
16
16
16
H
H
H
H
H
HH
H
H
HL
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
60°E40°E20°E20°W40°W60°W
20°E20°W
70°N
60°N
50°N
40°N
60°E
40°E
40°W
60°W
extreme cold cold w arm extreme w arm w ind extreme w ind precip extreme precip
Central Europe heat wave July 2007
Sarajevo March 2011
Daily 2m maximum temperature anomalies summer 2007
Extreme temperatures 15-20 July, over 40°C in many placesForest fires, loss of crops, fatalities from heat stress Strong signal in 15 day forecast
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
EFI, 2m maximum temperature, Forecast t+240 VT: 20070720
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.30.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0°
0°
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E
EFI, 2m maximum temperature, Forecast t+360 VT: 20070720
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.30.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Extreme forecast index (EFI)
Sarajevo March 2011
• Used as an “alarm bell” to alert forecasters to possible extreme events
• Forecasters can then look in more detail
15-day and 10-day EFI for 20 July 2007
Central and Eastern European floods – July 2008
Sarajevo March 2011
Extreme forecast index for120-hour total precipitation(EPS from 21 July 2008, valid for period 22–27 July)
Several days of heavy rainfall over south-east Europe on23–28 July 2008
Flooding in parts of Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary
Over 35,000 people evacuated; 36 people reported killed
Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) gives good indication of area of exceptional precipitation. Higher values show stronger signal for extreme event
Storm Xynthia – 28 February 2010
47 casualties in FranceEFI gave a clear early warning
Sarajevo March 2011
Day 2-3
Day 3-4
Monthly forecastVerification 13–19 December 2010
Sarajevo March 2011
Sarajevo March 2011
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