Drought: agricultural impacts and industry...

Drought: agricultural impacts and industry responsesDr Mike Storey

Head of R&D, AHDB Potatoes

mike.storey@ahdb.org.uk

4 & 5 June 2011

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Impact on revenue of variable yield (£m) (AHDB)

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Wheat Spring barley Winter barley

wet>dry dull>wet dry>wetdry dry

J Watts AHDB

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Met Office - Droughts across lowland England

Structural change 1970-74 2010-14

Area (ha) 224,000 121,000

Production (mt) 6.66 5.55

Yield (t/ha) 30.8 44.7

Growers 40,500 2,300

Area/grower (ha) 5.2 50.5

Capital investmentContractual commitments

Quality requirements Risk mitigation

GB potato industry structural change

Photos: Gary Naylor

IMPACT FOR GROWERS: this could mean a 36% increase in irrigation need for the West Midlands and 56% for the East Midlands

http://www.promar-international.com/_userfiles/publications/files/Phase%202%20Report%20-Impact%20of%20drought%20for%20potato%20growers.pdf

56% of all irrigated potato fields arecurrently located within areas classified as being at ‘high’ risk, and 32% are at ‘moderate’risk.

Baseline assessment for water resource status @ November 2011.

Source and data copyright Met Office

SMD’s

Modelled scenarios sites and planting

Map risk to production

Impacts on Quality

Lack water for early season

irrigation (tuber initiation)

control of Common Scab.

Lack water for late season irrigation –

crop bulking – tuber size and dry matter.

Quality for end markets

Dry (and associated higher temps) - early

maturity and dormancy break – challenge

for sprout control

Impacts on Quality

Dry conditions at harvest –

increased risk of bruising and

damage over harvester -

limited soil cushioning.

Irrigate dry soils before harvest to minimise risk

• Ingress of wound pathogens

affecting storage out-turn

• Waste - direct and indirect

• Consumer dissatisfaction

Projected change in land suitability for

rainfed potato production

Water resource management and irrigation are

crucial to the long term sustainability of the

industry

• Variety selection (drought and common scab tolerant – for pre-

packs) or switch to combinable crops

• Avoid growing on the lightest soils as these drain quickly and have

low water holding capacity

• Adopt scheduling and ensure irrigation systems are working at

optimum efficiency by reducing water losses (control pipe leakage,

appropriate operating pressure, filtering system).avoid windy days

• Restrict potato area to match available water resources after taking

into account potential abstraction restriction risks

• Consider investment in reservoirs to meet water demand

• Look for ways to trade/share water resources by work collectively

with neighbouring growers

• Consider joining or setting up a local water abstraction group

Mitigation and Adaptation for potato businesses

Protected horticulture

Improve system efficiency but in

many situations automation

difficult.

Glass house and polytunnel

crops absolutely require reliable

supplies.

Some reservoirs - capital,

licences, treatment.

Many businesses limited space

and only store few days supply

Field crops

Few vegetables can be grown without need

for irrigation but such cases are the

exceptional (deep Fen silts). Nearly all onions,

carrot and parsnip are grown with irrigation

required in most years

Ornamentals grown in

containers to provide a good

root ball for transplanting can

neither survive long without

water nor achieve quality

standards

All outdoor salads require

irrigable land. Good water

supply is essential to meet

market requirements

Likely effects of drought on livestock

• Prolonged periods of low rainfall (weather)• Reduced pasture growth & pasture quality

• Increased reliance (and cost) on purchased feed

• Longer term effects of low rainfall (climate)• Potential change in land use: pasture to

cropping

• Uncertainty over global feed availability e.g. protein

• Change in cropping patterns to forage species more suited to drought conditions (e.g. Fescue x Lolium hybrids and deep rooting broad leaf plants)

• Local/regional Water Stress Index impacting on cost/potential to produce

Image www.coolcows.com.au

Direct effects on animals

• Risk of associated heat stress

• Dairy cattle (> 25°C or THI > 55)

• Intake reduces

• Milk yield and fat % reduce1

• Water intake increases2

• Often initial improvement in productivity• Reduced parasite (liver fluke) burden

• Supply of water• Often mains water available as back up to

local sources

• Tanking in as a last resort for some

1Hill and Wall, 2014, 2Murphy et al., 1983

Costs

• Alternative water source for drinking

• Need to buy in feed to substitute for lost forage

• Pasture renewal cost if plants die

• Very rare to need to sell stock

• Beef finishers mainly unaffected (buying feed and piping in water anyway)

Actions

• Breeding for more resilient grasses

• Plant deeper rooting grasses

• Use of alternative drought tolerant forages

• Use of cover crops

• Engineering solutions

• Guidance to farmers: http://beefandlamb.ahdb.org.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/BRP-Managing-cattle-and-sheep-during-extreme-weather-events.pdf

ClimateEffective rainfall: 150

mm/yr.

PSMD max: 225 mm

Value of Irrigated

Agriculture : £51

M/yr

East Suffolk Holistic Water ManagementFelixstowe Peninsula Project

Irrigation demand: 9.5 M m3 (2011)

Growing at 2.3%/yr.

No new groundwater licences

Limited winter abstraction licences

Paul Bradford

Irrigation demand, East Suffolk: 9.5 M m3 (2011)Growing at 2.3%/yr.No new groundwater licencesLimited winter abstraction licences

• 850,000 m3 - 1,500,000 m3 storage

• 15 -20 km + mains pipe

• £2.5M - £4M

• 9 + Landowners

• 30 Ha + storage reservoirs

Felixstowe Peninsula Project Schematic

Reservoir and pipeline locations are representative only and subject to change

Barriers• Unique in UK

• Competing businesses working together

• New roles for Regulatory Authorities

• Cost

• Technical difficulty

Levers• Expertise (local and technical)

• Strong Abstractors Group (ESWAG)

• Good economic case (IRR. 10%-15%)

• Supportive Regulators (Environment

Agency, East Suffolk IDB)

• Determined Leadership (Suffolk County

Council)

Acknowledgements

AHDB colleagues:

Anne Stone

Jack Watts

Alice Sin, Jenny Bashford & Adrian Briddon

Kim Matthews & Liz Genever

Stephen Whelan & Ray Keating

Jerry Knox & Tim Hess - Cranfield University

Paul Bradford – Bradford & Brighton (Felixstowe Peninsula Project)