DMM 2017 Q1 Report Highlights - California ISO€¦ · DMM 2017 Q1 Report Highlights Gabe Murtaugh...

DMM 2017 Q1 Report Highlights

Gabe Murtaugh – Senior Analyst, Monitoring and ReportingDepartment of Market MonitoringCalifornia ISO

Conference callJuly 31, 2017

Discussion outline

Page 2

• ISO market results

• EIM market results

• Load adjustments

• Special Issues– Aliso Canyon gas constraints– Load bias limiter

Prices declined in the first quarter because of low loads and high renewable generation.

Page 3

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2016 2017

Pric

e ($

/MW

h)

Day-ahead 15-Minute 5-Minute

Net loads were lower in the afternoon and prices followed a similar pattern.

Page 4

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

28,000

32,000

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Aver

age

net s

yste

m lo

ad (M

W)

Pric

e ($

/MW

h)

Day-ahead 15-minute 5-minute Average net load

Day-ahead prices were consistently negative during the quarter.

Page 5

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Perc

ent o

f hou

rs

-$15 to $10 -$10 to -$5 -$5 to $0 $0 to $1

Low loads and abundant renewables caused frequent negative prices in real-time.

Page 6

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2016 2017

Perc

ent o

f 5-m

inut

e in

terv

als

Below -$145 -$145 to -$50 -$50 to $0

With negative prices the ISO reduced more renewable output this quarter than.

Page 7

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2016 2017

Perc

ent r

educ

tion

Meg

atw

att h

our

Total economic decremental dispatch

Total self-scheduled curtailment

Wind and solar percent reduction

Virtual bidders made payments to the ISO for the second consecutive quarter.

Page 8

-$4

$0

$4

$8

$12

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2016 2017

$ m

illio

n

Virtual supply net revenueVirtual demand net revenueTotal bid cost recovery chargesTotal revenues less charges

Auction revenues continued to be less than payments made to CRR holders.

Page 9

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

150%

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2015 2016 2017

Perc

ent o

f auc

tione

d C

RR

pay

men

ts

Rev

enue

s an

d pa

ymen

ts ($

mill

ion)

Auction revenues received by ratepayersPayments to auctioned CRRsAuction revenues as a percent of payments

EIM prices were lower in Northwest areas during many hours because of congestion.

Page 10

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Aver

age

hour

ly p

rice

($/M

Wh)

PacifiCorp East, NV Energy, and Arizona Public ServicePacifiCorp West and Puget Sound EnergySouthern California EdisonPacific Gas and Electric

EIM prices in Puget and Arizona were significantly impacted by transition pricing.

Page 11

Dollars PercentPuget Sound Energy 15-minute market (FMM) $18.75 $19.16 -$0.41 -2.1% 5-minute market (RTD) $15.54 $17.31 -$1.77 -10.2%Arizona Public Service 15-minute market (FMM) $19.45 $8.64 $10.81 125% 5-minute market (RTD) $17.44 $5.13 $12.31 240%

Average EIM price

Estimated EIM price without transition

period pricing

Estimated impact of transition period pricing

Frequent flex ramp sufficiency test failures limited transfers to and from Arizona.

Page 12

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2016 2017

Perc

ent o

f hou

rs

PacifiCorp East PacifiCorp West NV EnergyPuget Sound Energy Arizona Public Service

NV Energy continued to receive imports from the ISO during the middle of the day.

Page 13

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Impo

rts

into

NV

Ener

gy (M

W)

PacifiCorp East to NV Energy California ISO to NV Energy

Average transfer

Arizona increased positive load adjustments in 2017.

Page 14

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%O

ctN

ovD

ec Jan

Feb

Mar Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017

California ISO PacifiCorpEast

PacifiCorpWest

NV Energy Puget SoundEnergy

Arizona PublicService

Perc

ent o

f int

erva

ls

Negative load adjustment Positive load adjustment

• Permanently update day-ahead indices with ICE information

• Use Monday only trading information on ICE to update day-ahead market index

• Update indices in real-time market with same day gas information

• Clarify after-the-fact recovery provisions

Page 15

Recommended approach for Phase 1:Use available gas information

Aliso measures related to gas constraints should be carefully considered because of gas trade data and the mitigation process.

Page 16

60% 80% 100% 120% 140%0%

10%

20%

30%

Perc

ent o

f tra

ded

volu

me

Trade price as percent of next-day average

First trade-day of week

Other days

110% 125%

Aliso measures related to gas constraints should be carefully considered because of gas trade data and the mitigation process.

Page 17

60% 80% 100% 120% 140%0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

Perc

ent o

f tra

ded

volu

me

Trade price as percent of average at 8:30 a.m.

110% 125%

Proposed changes to load bias limiter would reduce impact on prices.

Page 18

0

200

400

600

800

Power balance excess Power balance insufficiency

CAISO

Num

ber o

f 5-m

inut

e in

terv

als

(201

6) Current load bias limiter not triggered

Current load bias limiter tiggered

Proposed load bias limiter triggered