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Disruptive TrendsIn TransportationRonald T. Milam | AICP, PTPFEHR & PEERSAugust 2018
Trends2017 to 2040 UNCERTAINTY
Trend EffectsTipping Point
Trend EffectsTipping Point
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Perc
ent o
f Veh
icle
Flee
t
Quarles & Kockelman (Conservative) Quarles & Kockelman (Moderate)Quarles & Kockelman (Aggressive) Litman (Conservative)Litman (Aggressive) Goldman SachsTrendline (high) Trendline (low)
Potential Growth in Autonomous Vehicles as Percent of Vehicle Fleet
Trend EffectsTipping Point
95% of Passenger Miles by 2030 Delivered by Transportation as a
Service (TaaS) in Autonomous Electric Vehicles (AEVs)
https://tonyseba.com | 2018 TRB Presentation
Trend EffectsEvidence
Per Capita Vehicle Miles Travelled - California 1.00% 8,820
8r800
8,780 0.50%
8r760
"'C Q,J 8,740 -'ii
0.00%
> ta I..
8,720 t-Ill Q,J - -0.50% ·-~ 8r700 Q,J -u ·-..c 81680 Q,J
> - 1.00%
8,660
8r640 -1.50% - VMT per Capita
8,620 - Percentage
81600 -2.00% Growth 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Hi_ghway Statistics
TNC EffectsEvidence
·what11s 1Ub1er Diisp1llacii ng? Ho. ·w . pe- I ·-.. .o- ·p. -. lie' -- ·wou. . . . I ld ·. -· t-. rav- : ·e. -I. . 1 ·11~·r~ the·-: . ·' y - we. : ·re-·- n'·t tak- . ···.·.. 1~1ng ,I_" ILJbe. . . - . ·1I r or . Lyf,_ · -t -
60+ % of TNC TripsAre New Vehicle Trips
2,2o/o
Fewer Trips Walk Bike Rail Carpool Taxi
Sourc 1e: Uniiversity of ca11·tornia. IDaviis lnsititut,e, 1of Transportati 1on ,Studies,
Trend Effects on TransitEvidence
f ri c e e m ■ or e
l lffl 1mc I I lll B d lL C
c.t Eff I C
..... N - -- "!If'"" '!l"""" '!l""""
N N N N N N N N N N N
So ces.: e n ere C: 88
a nd a .. hi t on D.C.
Trend Effects on TransitEvidence
The Washington Post | Falling Transit Ridership Poses an ‘Emergency’ for Cities, Experts Fear | Faiz Siddiqui | 3.24.18
Trend Effects on TransitEvidence New York Chicago
Boston Los Angeles
www.schallerconsult.com | 2018 TRB Presentation
TNCs to AVsFehr & Peers Testing 9
Regional Travel Demand Models
2Freeway Simulations
AV TestsVehicle Results
AV TestsTransit Results
AV EffectsEvidence
Research Findings: Chauffeur Experimen -( arb et ,al.; 2i017)
• 13 Sain Franci1S1CO !Bay Ar1ea1 subjects Cohorts: 4 Millennials, 4 Families~ 5 Retire-4!s • More aiuto travel
- 716'% 'in1crease in VMT - 22'% of ~ncreased VMT were ghost trips
• Ch11ang1e, in1 a11ct·vity p1att1e,rn1s -
194'% 'in 1crease in # lo1ng·er trip1s (:over 2101 miles)1
- 8,0% 'in1crease in # ev·en~ng· trip,s 1(after 6 pm) ,
Retirees increase most
Consistent across cohorts
Retirees increase most
• B,imodal imp1a11Ct 10,n1 miles w·a1lk:ed Consistent across cohorts - !Half decreasied 1(-28% on avera,ge)., half increased! 1(+49% on avera,ge)
v ·rtu1ally no b1ik.ing, t ·a1n1s·t, TN 1C use in1 th 1e, samp1le Consistent across cohorts
Policy ResponseDepends on the desired outcome
Policy ResponsePrivate Sector Motivation = Revenue (Miles, Minutes, Demand Level, and Vehicle Choice)
Policy ResponseTransportation Network Space Allocation
Policy ResponseMarket Assessment
Policy ResponseMicrotransit
VISIION TEAM ADVlSO.RS
City friendly mobility as a service
An on-demand city-integrate1d urban autono,mous transportation system
co
Policy ResponseMicro-Transit or Micro-Vehicles
PerformanceTraditional
VehiclesMicro
VehiclesDelay (seconds) 175 31Fuel consumption (gallons) 422 187
Policy ResponseAutonomous Rapid Transit (ART)
Performance20-passenger
vehicles4-passenger
vehiclesReduced travel delay 46% 49%Improvement in travel time advantage over cars 34% 36%Improvement in travel time advantage over BRT 33% 35%
Disruptive TrendsIn TransportationRonald T. Milam | AICP, PTPFEHR & PEERSAugust 2018
• Tipping Point
Trend Effects
Trend EffectsEvidence
Trend Effects on TransitEvidence
www.schallerconsult.com | 2018 TRB Presentation
Policy ResponseTransportation Network Space Allocation
Policy ResponseTransportation Network Space Allocation
Policy ResponseLand Use
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