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Disputed Elections and LegitimacyWhat comes after matters!
Dr. Jeff KeyAP Comparative Politics Workshop
Boston, MAApril 10, 2010
The Power of Elections
We invest elections with great significance … “By a democratic regime, we mean a set of
institutions that allow the citizens to choose the makers of public policy in free, competitive elections…”
“Countries with free and fair elections for the real policymakers and eligibility of all adults meet the minimum requirements for procedural democracy.”
Almond and Powell
…but give them little critical reflection.
Elections and Legitimacy
What comes AFTER elections is important!
Does acceptance of election outcomes reflect legitimacy?◦Even in authoritarian systems, elections
facilitate participation.
What if election outcomes are challenged?◦How the government responds to post-election
challenges impacts its legitimacy.
Post-election Protests & Government Response
Leaders of losing parties often challenge election results and promote protests that the government must address.
Failure to stop such protests undermines the government’s ability to rule and its legitimacy.
Challenged result
s
Post-electio
n protes
ts
Government response
Post-election Protests and Legitimacy
HOW the government addresses post-election protests is important.◦Can it be done without coercion?◦Is coercion needed?Post-election protests
No coercion
Reinforces legitimacy?
Coercion
Undercuts legitimacy?
Post-election Remedies Matter!
Election
Results challenged
Adjudicated by election courts or commission
Reinforces legitimacy?
No institutions for dispute resolution
Undercuts legitimacy?
Results accepted
Reinforces legitimacy?
Institutions and processes to resolve election disputes help to absorb conflict.
Forms…election commissions or courts
What to look for after elections…
Percentage of eligible votes cast◦Would you believe 100% participation?
Size of “gap” between winner and losers◦What’s sparks protests, close races or landslides?
Reports of post-election protests and government responses◦How widespread/intense are protests?◦Is force is used to suppress them?
Length of time between election date and date of final declaration of winner ◦Is a longer period “better”?
Mexico 2006
Turnout: 59%Winner: Filipe Calderon (35.89%)Closest rival: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
(35.31%)Election date: July 2Confirmed: September 5 by the Electoral
Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary (TEPJF)
Nigeria 2007
Turnout: est. 57.5%Winner: Amadu Yar’Adua (70%)Closest rival: Muhammadu Buhari (18.72%)Election date: April 21Confirmed: April 23 by Independent National
Election Commission (INEC)
Iran 2009
Turnout: 85%Winner: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (62.63%)Closest rival: Mir-Hossein Mousavi (33.75%)Election date: June 12 Confirmed: June 29 by the Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei (Guardian Council asked him to extend the required election complaint period an additional five days.)
Useful Election Websites
www.electionguide.orgwww.ifes.orgwww.iri.org/explore-our-resources/election
-watchwww.ndi.org/content/electionswww.cartercenter.org/peace/democracy/o
bserved.html#tablemuse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democra
cy/election_watch (1990-2000 only)
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