Developing Services Statistics in Singapore

Developing Services Statistics in Singapore

Presentation at the International Forumon Metropolitan Statistics - Beijing 2008

Dr Soon Teck Wong Director

Economic Accounts DivisionSingapore Department of Statistics

Outline

Introduction Overview of Singapore’s services

economy Classifications for the services industries Short-term indicators for the services

industries On-going and future development

Introduction

Accounting for about two-thirds of Singapore's GDP, the services sector is central and critical to the economy of a city state like Singapore

Measuring services output is inherently difficult Unlike manufacturing, the services industries are

heterogeneous and often made up of a large number of small businesses

Singapore uses Comprehensive annual survey data, available about 12-

18 months after reference year Short term proxy indicators for quarterly GDP compilation

Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy

Share of Nominal GVA

35.7

60.1

29.5

65.9

010203040506070

Goods ProducingIndustries

Services ProducingIndustries

Per C

ent

19882007

Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy

Share of Nominal GVA(Services Producing Industries)

12.911.4

3.3 2.6

9.8 9.9

16.2

9.4

1.93.6

12.4 12.5

9.810.2

0

5

10

15

20

Wholesale &Retail

Transport &Storage

Hotels &Restaurants

Information &Communications

FinancialServices

BusinessServices

Community,Social &PersonalServices

Per C

ent

19882007

Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy

Real Average Annual Growth Rate 1988-2007

6.9

6.6

7.3

6.26.46.66.87.07.27.4

Overall Economy Goods ProducingIndustries

Services ProducingIndustries

Per C

ent

Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy

Real Average Annual Growth Rate 1988-2007 (Services Producing Industries)

8.4

5.8

3.7

11.9

8.4

6.46.2

02468

101214

Wholesale &Retail

Transport &Storage

Hotels &Restaurants

Information &Communications

FinancialServices

BusinessServices

Community,Social &PersonalServices

Per C

ent

Classifications for the Services Industries

By Major Industry Groups Singapore Standard Industrial Classification

(SSIC) 2005 which is based on ISIC, Revision 4 Broad sections for services increased from 10

to 14, in recognition of increasing variety and heterogeneity of services

Reflecting the importance of telecommunications, IT-related and media services, new section ‘Information and Communications’ was created

Classifications for the Services Industries

By Clusters Increasing needs for data based on groups of

industries from more than one section Some international organisations proposing

definitions for some clusters to facilitate international comparisons ICT cluster (OECD) Cultural sector (UNESCO)

Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries

Administrative data As far as possible, DOS relies on

administrative sources for short term indicators High frequency Comprehensive Less labour-intensive than surveys Reduces respondent burden

Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries

Administrative data – Trade data TradeNet

Nation-wide comprehensive electronic data interchange system for trade documentation

Provides comprehensive monthly information on Singapore’s external trade

Monthly data available within 1 week from end of reference month

Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries

Administrative data – Tourism-related data Data collected include

Visitor arrivals Room days occupied Average occupancy rate Hotel room and F&B revenue

Monthly data available about 4 weeks after reference month

Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries

Administrative Data - Transportation Data Data collected include

Aircraft landings Air passenger arrivals and departures Sea and air cargo handled Vessel arrivals Container throughput

Data generally available 4 – 6 weeks after end of reference period

Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries

Data from High-Frequency Surveys Collects minimal information from a small

number of establishments that account for a relatively large share of total industry VA

Key economic indicators are derived from such surveys

Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries

Data from High-Frequency Surveys Monthly surveys

Retail sales Restaurants and other F&B outlets Turnover data collected used to compile

retail sales index and catering trade index Indices available with 4-week lag

Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries

Data from High-Frequency Surveys Quarterly surveys

Wholesale trade Services Turnover data collected used to compile

wholesale trade index and business receipts index

Indices available with 6 - 8 week lag

On-going and Future Development

Measurement of output Need for continuous review and improvement

of data sources and indicators Increasing recognition of inadequacy of input-

based approach for non-market services Monitoring developments Actively developing new indicators and

methodologies to better capture output of non-market activities

On-going and Future Development

Better Data Coverage of Services Industries Continuously developing more appropriate

indicators to replace input-based indicators Increasing sample size and scope of services

industries covered by the Quarterly Survey of Services (QSS)

Exploring supplementing QSS data using Goods and Services Tax data

On-going and Future Development

Development of Services Producer Price Indices

Deflation by price index is preferred over extrapolation with volume indicator to obtain real measures of output

Conclusion

Need for timeliness and reduction of respondent burden adds to the challenge of developing short term indicators for services

Despite these difficulties, DOS has developed a fairly comprehensive range of timely short-term indicators of the performance of the services industries

DOS will continue to review and develop more appropriate indicators and methodologies for the evolving services economy

Thank You