Daniel Sil… · SSA Regional Growth Outlook 2017 . Top Growth Performers 2016/2017 . Africa’s...

www.danielsilkeglobal.com

Trump’s Stocks Surge

Source: YAHOO FINANCE/CNN POLITICS, AS OF APRIL, 2017

Trump’s Corporate Tax Breaks

Source: Wall Street Journal

Trumps First Budget – Winners & Losers

Source: Al Jazeera

SA Exports to US Rises

AGOA as a Proportion of SA

Exports by Industry

Source: SAIRR

UK GDP Disappoints

Sharpest UK Retail Sales Decline since 2010

UK Real Wage Growth Stalling

Eurozone Consumer Confidence

GDP & Trade – Better Days Ahead?

Chinese Economy Shifts to New Sectors

Africa’s Growth Slump

Currency & Inflation Analysis

Commodity Price Uptick

Source: World Bank Dec 2016

Towards 2020: Coal vs Commodities

SSA Regional Growth Outlook 2017

Top Growth Performers 2016/2017

Africa’s Urbanization Continues

Africa’s Demographic Explosion

Source: United Nations

Africa’s Consumer Demand Potential

SA’s GDP at a 7-Year Low

Source: Bloomberg

South Africa’s GDP Underperformance

Source: Bloomberg

GDP Per Capita back to 2013 Levels

Manufacturing Production off Lows

Source: StatsSA

Mining Production shows some Life!

Source: Chamber of Mines/StatsSA

Better Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)

Source: SATSSA

Food Price Relief for SA Consumers

Rand & Inflation – In Tandem

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Carry-Trade Seeking EM Assets

Source: Bloomberg

Interest Rates dependent on Rand/Inflation

Source: StanLib

Consumer Spending & Confidence Muted

Source: SATSSA

Household Credit Extension Low

Source: SARB

Retail Trade Sales y-o-y Under Pressure

Source: Stats SA

Real Net-Worth per Household Declines

Sources: Momentum/Unisa; South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin March 2017

75% of earning South Africans are not moving out of their income bands (2008-2012). Of those who do show income mobility, the amount of people moving up is matched by those that move down. UCT/Unilever Institute of Strategic Marketing 2017

Tougher times for First-time Buyers

Source: FNB 2017

SA’s Youth Unemployment

Source: SATSSA

Radical Economic Transformation

“The structure of the economy will be transformed through industrialization, broad-based black economic empowerment & through strengthening & expanding the role of the state in the economy”. Jacob Zuma SONA 2017

Pending Legislation on Land

Ceilings on the size of farms

Role & scope of valuer general

Additional claims for restitution

President Zuma & Rural Development Minister Nkwinti have admitted that 90% of land claimants accepted financial compensation rather than land making a 30% redistribution target unrealistic.

Concerns over radical economic transformation as applied to land reform may point to a patronage motivation involving transfers to selected beneficiaries. After all, most claimants want money rather than land anyway.

An audit of state-owned land still not completed. Some 20000 land claims lodged in terms of the restitution process launched shortly after the ANC came to power have still to be finalised.

The promised reopening of land claims has been put on hold because the Constitutional Court last year invalidated the restitution bill. When and if Parliament gets around to re-enacting it properly, as many as 379 000 new claims could be lodged, according to the Department of Rural Development and Land Reform.

Agriculture Minister Senzeni Zokwana said the ANC was

unlikely to back such a policy at a party conference in June

and July, particularly given government efforts to attract

investment. "I don’t think so," he told Reuters on the sidelines

of an agricultural conference and exhibition when asked about

the possibility of seizures. "It will be challenged in the courts.

You would need to first amend the constitution to do that. The

issue is that to attract investors in any industry you need policy

certainty. If you are not sure whether you will find your farm

tomorrow or you will find shacks around it, you will not invest

in that land," he added.

“We should present it in a way that seeks

to preserve the current commercial

farming community - which produces the

bulk of our food - and get black farmers

to a level where they can become

commercial farmers very soon.” Source: MoneyWeb May 2017

Director General of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, Mike Mlengana, stated that “it is no use handing over the land to someone who has no clue what to do with it”. Reform might not be as fast as people wanted, Mr Mlengana said, but "land grabs" were not the solution. SAIRR May 2017

An alternative negative scenario is that cumbersome audits and other ‘complexities’ will be used as a pretext for legislation that cuts the red tape by taking all land into state ‘custodianship’, and then leasing it back – possibly without being classified as expropriation. Such legislation will almost fall foul of the courts. Similarly, ‘regulatory’ expropriation poses a danger. SAIRR 2017

Tampering with the property clauses in the constitution will have a domino-effect in spooking investors & will be compared to Zimbabwe.

Downgrades Under Way

ABSA Purchasing Managers Index Pressured

Source: Bloomberg

SA Govt. Debt to GDP Soars

The Growing Gap: Revenue vs Expenditure

Source: Rand Daily Mail/Old Mutual

Debt Service Costs Soar

Source: Paul Berkowitz 2016

The Political Map - Purple Swings to Opposition

Source: News24

Shifting Tide of ANC NEC Factions

Source: Nomura

www.danielsilkeglobal.com