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www.danielsilkeglobal.com
Trump’s Stocks Surge
Source: YAHOO FINANCE/CNN POLITICS, AS OF APRIL, 2017
Trump’s Corporate Tax Breaks
Source: Wall Street Journal
Trumps First Budget – Winners & Losers
Source: Al Jazeera
SA Exports to US Rises
AGOA as a Proportion of SA
Exports by Industry
Source: SAIRR
UK GDP Disappoints
Sharpest UK Retail Sales Decline since 2010
UK Real Wage Growth Stalling
Eurozone Consumer Confidence
GDP & Trade – Better Days Ahead?
Chinese Economy Shifts to New Sectors
Africa’s Growth Slump
Currency & Inflation Analysis
Commodity Price Uptick
Source: World Bank Dec 2016
Towards 2020: Coal vs Commodities
SSA Regional Growth Outlook 2017
Top Growth Performers 2016/2017
Africa’s Urbanization Continues
Africa’s Demographic Explosion
Source: United Nations
Africa’s Consumer Demand Potential
SA’s GDP at a 7-Year Low
Source: Bloomberg
South Africa’s GDP Underperformance
Source: Bloomberg
GDP Per Capita back to 2013 Levels
Manufacturing Production off Lows
Source: StatsSA
Mining Production shows some Life!
Source: Chamber of Mines/StatsSA
Better Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
Source: SATSSA
Food Price Relief for SA Consumers
Rand & Inflation – In Tandem
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Carry-Trade Seeking EM Assets
Source: Bloomberg
Interest Rates dependent on Rand/Inflation
Source: StanLib
Consumer Spending & Confidence Muted
Source: SATSSA
Household Credit Extension Low
Source: SARB
Retail Trade Sales y-o-y Under Pressure
Source: Stats SA
Real Net-Worth per Household Declines
Sources: Momentum/Unisa; South African Reserve Bank Quarterly Bulletin March 2017
75% of earning South Africans are not moving out of their income bands (2008-2012). Of those who do show income mobility, the amount of people moving up is matched by those that move down. UCT/Unilever Institute of Strategic Marketing 2017
Tougher times for First-time Buyers
Source: FNB 2017
SA’s Youth Unemployment
Source: SATSSA
Radical Economic Transformation
“The structure of the economy will be transformed through industrialization, broad-based black economic empowerment & through strengthening & expanding the role of the state in the economy”. Jacob Zuma SONA 2017
Pending Legislation on Land
Ceilings on the size of farms
Role & scope of valuer general
Additional claims for restitution
President Zuma & Rural Development Minister Nkwinti have admitted that 90% of land claimants accepted financial compensation rather than land making a 30% redistribution target unrealistic.
Concerns over radical economic transformation as applied to land reform may point to a patronage motivation involving transfers to selected beneficiaries. After all, most claimants want money rather than land anyway.
An audit of state-owned land still not completed. Some 20000 land claims lodged in terms of the restitution process launched shortly after the ANC came to power have still to be finalised.
The promised reopening of land claims has been put on hold because the Constitutional Court last year invalidated the restitution bill. When and if Parliament gets around to re-enacting it properly, as many as 379 000 new claims could be lodged, according to the Department of Rural Development and Land Reform.
Agriculture Minister Senzeni Zokwana said the ANC was
unlikely to back such a policy at a party conference in June
and July, particularly given government efforts to attract
investment. "I don’t think so," he told Reuters on the sidelines
of an agricultural conference and exhibition when asked about
the possibility of seizures. "It will be challenged in the courts.
You would need to first amend the constitution to do that. The
issue is that to attract investors in any industry you need policy
certainty. If you are not sure whether you will find your farm
tomorrow or you will find shacks around it, you will not invest
in that land," he added.
“We should present it in a way that seeks
to preserve the current commercial
farming community - which produces the
bulk of our food - and get black farmers
to a level where they can become
commercial farmers very soon.” Source: MoneyWeb May 2017
Director General of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, Mike Mlengana, stated that “it is no use handing over the land to someone who has no clue what to do with it”. Reform might not be as fast as people wanted, Mr Mlengana said, but "land grabs" were not the solution. SAIRR May 2017
An alternative negative scenario is that cumbersome audits and other ‘complexities’ will be used as a pretext for legislation that cuts the red tape by taking all land into state ‘custodianship’, and then leasing it back – possibly without being classified as expropriation. Such legislation will almost fall foul of the courts. Similarly, ‘regulatory’ expropriation poses a danger. SAIRR 2017
Tampering with the property clauses in the constitution will have a domino-effect in spooking investors & will be compared to Zimbabwe.
Downgrades Under Way
ABSA Purchasing Managers Index Pressured
Source: Bloomberg
SA Govt. Debt to GDP Soars
The Growing Gap: Revenue vs Expenditure
Source: Rand Daily Mail/Old Mutual
Debt Service Costs Soar
Source: Paul Berkowitz 2016
The Political Map - Purple Swings to Opposition
Source: News24
Shifting Tide of ANC NEC Factions
Source: Nomura
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