Copyright © 2009 Benjamin Cummings is an imprint of Pearson 016 Global Climate Change Ch 14...

016 Global Climate ChangeCh 14

Environment & Ecology

Central Case: Rising seas may flood the Maldives

Our dynamic climate• Climate: an area’s long-term atmospheric conditions

- Temperature, moisture content, wind, precipitation, etc.

- Influences everything around us

• Weather: conditions at localized sites over hours or days

• Global climate change: describes trends and variations in Earth’s climate

- Temperature, precipitation, storm frequency

• Global warming: an increase in Earth’s average temperature

- Earth’s climate has varied naturally through time.

- The rapid climatic changes taking place now are due to human activity: fossil fuels, combustion, and deforestation.

What changes climate?

• Changes in:

- Sun’s output

- Earth’s orbit

- Drifting continents

- Volcanic eruptions

- Greenhouse gases

Global Warming

The E-M Spectrum

The Sun’s Energy Warms the Earth

Fate of Solar Radiation Fate of Solar Radiation Reaching the EarthReaching the Earth

reflectionreflectionClouds (20%)Clouds (20%)

snow and ice + the earth’s surface (20%)snow and ice + the earth’s surface (20%)

atmospheric dust (6%)atmospheric dust (6%)

reflectionreflectionClouds (20%)Clouds (20%)

snow and ice + the earth’s surface (20%)snow and ice + the earth’s surface (20%)

atmospheric dust (6%)atmospheric dust (6%)

absorptionabsorptionOceans + Land (51%)Oceans + Land (51%)

Atmosphere (16%)Atmosphere (16%)

Clouds (3%)Clouds (3%)

Plant photosynthesis (<1%)Plant photosynthesis (<1%)

absorptionabsorptionOceans + Land (51%)Oceans + Land (51%)

Atmosphere (16%)Atmosphere (16%)

Clouds (3%)Clouds (3%)

Plant photosynthesis (<1%)Plant photosynthesis (<1%)

Radiated to space from clouds and atmosphere (64%)Radiated to space from clouds and atmosphere (64%)

Radiated directly to space from Earth (6%)Radiated directly to space from Earth (6%)

Radiated to space from clouds and atmosphere (64%)Radiated to space from clouds and atmosphere (64%)

Radiated directly to space from Earth (6%)Radiated directly to space from Earth (6%)

RadiationRadiation

Earth’s Atmosphere

The Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse GasesCarbon Dioxide

MethaneNitrous OxideWater Vapor

Thousands of Years Before Present

Temperature

Carbon Dioxide

Atmospheric CO2 & Surface Temperature TrendsAtmospheric CO2 & Surface Temperature Trends

July 28, 2013: 396.77 ppm

Sea level rise

Increased plant primary productivity

Shifts in the distribution of plants and animals

Water contamination and outbreaks of water-borne diseases

Increased storm severity

Potential melting or enlargement of polar ice caps

Changes to patterns of rainfall

More severe droughts or increased precipitation

changes to ocean circulation patterns

Predicted changes with increased greenhouse warming

Ice Age 18,000 years ago

Sea Level Changes due to Ice Ages and Ice Cap Melting

Mean Sea Level RiseMean Sea Level Rise

Summer Arctic Sea Ice Decline Comparison between 1979 & 2005Summer Arctic Sea Ice Decline Comparison between 1979 & 2005

Early Fall Arctic Sea Ice ExtentEarly Fall Arctic Sea Ice ExtentS

Greenland Seasonal Surface Melting

Surface melting

Permafrost

Permafrost melting

Drunken forest

North Atlantic Tropical Storms10-year running average

Larsen B Ice Shelf

• 220 m thick

• Lost 5700 km2 (2x Rhode Island)

• Reduction of 40%

1 Meter Sea Level Rise Waikiki1 Meter Sea Level Rise Waikiki

http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/HMRG/FloodingOahu/index.phphttp://www.soest.hawaii.edu/coasts/sealevel/waikiki.html

Sea Level Rise• Destroys coastal habitat (e.g. salt marshes,

mangroves)• Destroys human property• Increases pollution• Decreases freshwater supply

Venice, 2008

Effect on Marine Life• Phytoplankton bloom due to light and

temperature cues• Changes will impact food web• Hypoxia may result

Effect on Fisheries

• Migrations are in response to temperature• May impact fisheries

Effect on Corals• Coral bleaching • Leads to loss of habitat and food for reef-

dependent species

CurrentsOceanic conveyor belt may change ocean currents • Currents carry plankton• Bring food and oxygen• Distribute eggs and larvae• Remove wastes and pollutants

Salinity• Animals have a narrow range of tolerance• Glacial melting inputs lots of freshwater

Projected changes in precipitation

• High latitudes = increased precipitation• Low and middle latitudes = decreased

precipitation will worsen water shortages in developing countries

Acidity• CO2 makes water acidic• Corals and other calcium

carbonate species can’t make skeleton

• Impact on plankton development impacts food web

• Coral calcification rate reduced 15-20%

• Skeletal density decreased, branches thinner

Temperature• Higher temperature results in less O2

- Results in hypoxia• Ice melting leaves no resting/hunting areas for

polar bears• Antarctic Krill impacts food web

Invasive Species• Algae smothers coral• Invasive species out-compete natives

Weather Events

More severe weather patterns• El Niño• Hurricanes • Mudslides• Forest Fires• Drought

Sea Surface Temperature

Aug 3, 2013 http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

Origin and paths of tropical cyclones

• Tropical cyclones are intense low pressure storms created by:

– Warm water

– Moist air

– Coriolis effect

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

• El Niño = warm surface current in equatorial eastern Pacific that occurs periodically around Christmastime

• Southern Oscillation = change in atmospheric pressure over Pacific Ocean accompanying El Niño

• ENSO describes a combined oceanic-atmospheric disturbance

El Niño

• Oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean

• Occurs during December• 2 to 7 year cycle

Sea Surface Temperature

Atmospheric Winds

Upwelling

Normal conditions in the Pacific Ocean

El Niño conditions (ENSO warm phase)

La Niña conditions (ENSO cool phase; opposite of El Niño)

El NiñoNon El Niño

Non El Niño

El Niño

thermocline

upwelling

El Niño events over the last 62 years

65-6672-73

57-5886-87 91-92

02-0309-10

Red - Strong El NinoBlue- Strong La NinaBlack – moderate (either)

50-5155-56

75-7688-89

98-9999-00

07-08 10-11

1969 1951 1957 1950 1955 19731976 1963 1965 1954 1970 19751977 1968 1972 1956 1998 19882004 1986 1982 1962 2007 19992006 1987 1997 1964 2010

1991 19671994 19712002 19742009 1984

19952000

El Niño La Niña

Weak Mod Strong Weak Mod Strong

Effects of severe El Niños

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• Why was it created?

- Created in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Program

- Established to provide policy-makers with an objective source of information about climate change

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The IPCC 2013 report concluded that it is more than 95% likely that most global warming is due to humans.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/12/09/syria-s-jihadists-linked-to-organized-crime.html

Shall we pursue mitigation or adaptation?• Mitigation: pursue actions that reduce

greenhouse gas emissions to lessen severity of future climate change

- Renewable energy, efficiency, farm practices to protect soil integrity, preventing deforestation

• Adaptation: accept climate change is happening and pursue strategies to minimize its impacts

- Uses technology and engineering, adjusting farming to cope with droughts, etc.

- Criticized as sidestepping

• Both are necessary

Transportation

• Ways to help:

- Make vehicles more fuel-efficient, hybrid cars

- Drive less

- Public transportation is the most effective way to conserve energy, reduce pollution.

- Live closer to your workplace, so you can bike or walk.

- Design cities and workplaces to be more friendly to pedestrian and bicycle traffic.

Conventional cars are inefficient

The typical automobile is highly inefficient.

The FCCC• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

(FCCC): outlines a plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000 through a voluntary, nation-by-nation approach

- By the late 1990s, it was clear that the voluntary approach would not succeed.

- Most developed nations did not voluntarily cut emissions.

• The Kyoto Protocol mandates that, between 2008-2012, signatory nations must reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases to levels below those of 1990.

- This treaty took effect in 2005, after Russia became the 127th nation to ratify it.

The Kyoto Protocol seeks to limit emissions

• The United States will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

- It requires industrialized nations to reduce emissions, but not rapidly industrializing nations (China and India).

China India

Market mechanisms address climate change• Permit trading programs

- Harness the economic efficiency of the free market to achieve policy goals while allowing businesses flexibility

- Polluters choose how to best reduce their emissions

• A cap and trade emissions trading program

- Each state decides who needs to participate.

- Each sets a cap on allowable carbon emissions.

- Each emissions source gets one permit.

- The source can buy or sell permits.

- Any source emitting more than its permitted amount will face penalties.

Carbon offsets are in vogue• Emissions trading programs allow participants to buy

carbon offsets.• Carbon offset: a voluntary payment to enable

another entity to reduce emissions that one is unable to reduce oneself

Hawaii California 1 flight = 2,268 CO2

6 trees/passenger = 1 round trip flight

You can reduce your own footprint• The most influential factor may be the collective

decisions of millions of people.

• Our carbon footprint expresses the amount of carbon we are responsible for emitting.

1.3bt980m

How much CO2 is created by _____/year

1.9bt610m

100t682m

Iceland

Germany Brazil

Ave. world citizen

Ave. UK citizen

Ave. N.A. citizen

Malawi

Rearing a child (carbon high) Russia

Ave. Australian

U.S.U.K.

China.

Rearing a child.

France

IndiaCanada

Australia

Rearing a child (carbon consciously)

http://calculator.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx

1.Invest in clean energy 2.Energy efficient cars 3.Create green jobs 4.Become carbon neutral 5.Become more energy efficient 6.Protect forests 7.Tax global warming pollution8.Coal plants use new technology 9.Cap CO2 emissions10. make low polluting biofuels more available

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