CMES detailed program 20140615A - Xiamen...

1

2014 China Meeting of Econometric Society

June 25-27, 2014

Xiamen University, China

PROGRAM

Preliminary Program as of June 14, 2014 (Presenter is bolded, and only the affiliation of the presenter is indicated)

June 25

Opening Ceremony: 08:00-8:30, Room N402

Keynote Session I & II: 08:30-10:15, Room N402 Session Chair: Lung-Fei Lee (lflee@ecolan.sbs.ohio-state.edu), Ohio State University

[1]. 08: 30-09: 30: "The Market and Nonmarket Effects of Schooling" James J. Heckman (jjh@uchicago.edu), University of Chicago

[2]. 09: 30-10: 15: "Using Panel Data to Disentangle Multiple Treatment Effects" Cheng Hsiao (chsiao@usc.edu), University of Southern California

10:15-10:45 Coffee Break

Parallel Sessions (10:45-12:15) 10:45-12:15 Invited Sessions IP01-IP04 10:45-12:15 Contributed Sessions CP01-CP07 10:45-12:15 Monash-WISE Workshop Session MW01

Session IP01: Nonparametric Estimation and Testing, 10:45-12:15, Room N203 Session Chair: Bin Chen (bchen8@mail.rochester.edu), University of Rochester

[1] “Estimating Smooth Structural Change in Cointegration Models” Peter C. B. Phillips, Degui Li (degui.li@york.ac.uk), and Jiti Gao, University of York

[2] “An Improved Transfer-Based Kernel Estimator of Copula Densities” Kuangyu Wen and Ximing Wu (xwu@tamu.edu), Texas A & M University and Xiamen University

[3] “A Discontinuity Test for Identification in Nonlinear Models with Endogeneity” Carolina Caetano, Christoph Rothe, and Nese Yildiz (nese.yildiz@rochester.edu), University of Rochester

2

Session IP02: Microeconomics I, 10:45-12:15, Room N303 Session Chair: Rongzhu Ke (rzke@cuhk.edu.hk), The Chinese University of Hong

Kong

[1] “Are Migrant Students Discriminated in Public Schools? Evidence from Shanghai” Yuanyuan Chen (yychen@mail.shufe.edu.cn) and Shuaizhang Feng, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Vehicle Quota System and Its Impact on The Chinese Auto Markets : A Tale of Two Cities” Junji Xiao, Xiaolan Zhou (julylan22@qq.com), and Wei-Min Hu, Shanghai University of Economics and Finance

[3] “Nonparametric Identification of Moral Hazard Problem: First Order Approach and Statistical Inference” Rongzhu Ke (rzke@cuhk.edu.hk), The Chinese University of Hong Kong

Session IP03: Chinese Economy I, 10:45-12:15, Room N302 Session Chair: Qing Liu (liuqing@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn), Tsinghua University

[1] “Identifying Monetary Policy Behavior in China: A Bayesian DSGE Approach” Bing Li (libing@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn) and Qing Liu, Tsinghua University

[2] “Understanding Chinese Business Cycles” Cheng Ding and Lin Zhang (zhanglin@swufe.edu.cn), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Investing Like China” Chong-En Bai, Qing Liu (liuqing@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn), and Wen Yao, Tsinghua University

Session IP04: Modelling Financial Distress and Credit Risk, 10:45-12:15, Room N301

Session Chair: Juan Yao (juan.yao@sydney.edu.au), University of Sydney

[1] “The Mechanics of Ex Ante Bankruptcy Cost, Corporate Capital Structure, and Debt Maturity” Yong Kil Ahn (ykahn@ust.hk), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[2] “The Dynamic Prediction of Company Failure: The Influence of Time, The Economy and Non-Linearity” Graham Partington (Graham.Partington@Sydney.edu.au) and Maria Kim, University of Sydney

[3] “Hedge Fund Lifetime, Survival Probability and Economic Condition” Juan Yao (juan.yao@sydney.edu.au) and Hee Soo Lee, University of Sydney

Session CP01: Nonlinear and Nonparametric Models, 10:45-12:15, Room N401 Session Chair: Arthur Lewbel (lewbel@bc.edu), Boston College

3

[1] “Identifying The Effect of Changing The Policy Threshold in Regression Discontinuity Models” Yingying Dong (yyd@uci.edu) and Arthur Lewbel, University of California Irvine

[2] “Identification and QML Estimation of Multivariate and Simultaneous Spatial Autoregression Models” Kai Yang (yang.1840@osu.edu) and Lung-Fei Lee, The Ohio State University

[3] “Identifying The Average Treatment Effect in A Two Threshold Model” Arthur Lewbel (lewbel@bc.edu) and Thomas Tao Yang, Boston College

Session CP02: Panel Data Models I , 10:45-12:15, Room N406 Session Chair: Ji-Liang Shiu (jishiu@hotmail.com), Renmin University of China

[1] “Testing for Cross-Sectional Dependence in A Panel Data Model with Time Series Autocorrelation” Chihwa Kao and Long Liu (long.liu@utsa.edu), University of Texas at San Antonio

[2] “Statistical Inference for Panel Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Models” Cheng Hsiao and Qiankun Zhou (qiankunz@usc.edu), University of Southern California

[3] “Identification and Estimation of Nonseparable Regression Functions in Dynamic Panel Data Models” Ji-Liang Shiu (jishiu@hotmail.com), Renmin University of China

Session CP03: Auctions and Contests, 10:45-12:15, Room N501 Session Chair: Zhewei Wang (zheweiwang@hotmail.com), Shandong University

[1] “How Risk Sharing May Enhance Efficiency in English Auctions” Audrey Hu (x.hu@uva.nl), Theo Offerman, and Liang Zou, University of Amsterdam

[2] "Autocontour-Testing in Unstable Environments" Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera and Yingying Sun (yingyingsun_econ@163.com), Huazhong University of Science and Technology

[3] “Multi-Prize Contests: An Axiomatization Perspective” Jingfeng Lu and Zhewei Wang (zheweiwang@hotmail.com), Shandong University

Session CP04: Macroeconomics I , 10:45-12:15, Room D209 Session Chair: Min Zhang (maggiez75@hotmail.com), Shanghai University of

Finance and Economics

[1] “Tax Evasion Through Trade Intermediation: Evidence from Chinese Exporters” Xupeng Liu, Huimin Shi (huiminshi@ruc.edu.cn), and Michael Ferrantino, Renmin University of China

[2] “Are Credit Default Swaps Redundant?” Xu Hu (huxu85@gmail.com), Fudan University

4

[3] “UI Eligibility Rule, Moral Hazard, and Optimal Unemployment Transfer Scheme” Min Zhang (maggiez75@hotmail.com) and Jia Pan, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Session CP05: Insurance and Cash Flow Sensitivity , 10:45-12:15, Room D210 Session Chair: Jing Cai (caijing@umich.edu), University of Michigan

[1] “Cash Flow Sensitivities and the Allocation of Internal Cash Flow” Xin Chang; Sudipto Dasgupta; George Wong, and Jiaquan Yao (YAOJ0002@e.ntu.edu.sg), Nanyang Technological University

[2] “The Role of Insurance in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from Mortgage Market” Sumit Agarwal and Yunqi Zhang (zhangyunqi@nus.edu.sg), National University of Singapore

[3] “Subsidy Policies and Insurance Demand” Jing Cai (caijing@umich.edu), Alain De Janvry, and Elisabeth Sadoulet, University of Michigan

Session CP06: Decision regarding High Education, 10:45-12:15, Room D309 Session Chair: Weina Zhou (wnxzhou@gmail.com), Dalhousie University

[1] “Cost and Risk Sharing in Higher Education” Yi Li (liyi.129@gmail.com), University of Wisconsin-Madison

[2] “College Enrollment, State Reform, and Human Capital: Evidence from China” Yao Yao (yaoyao@go.wustl.edu), Washington University in St. Louis

[3] “How Does A Hard Manual Labour Experience duringYouth Affect Life Later? The Long-term Impact of the Send-down Program during the Chinese Cultural Revolution” Weina Zhou (wnxzhou@gmail.com), Dalhousie University

Session CP07: Corruption: Theory and Empirics, 10:45-12:15, Room D310 Session Chair: Xiaohuan Lan (xhlan@ckgsb.edu.cn), Cheung Kong Graduate School

of Business

[1] “Procurement Design with Corruption” Roberto Burguet (roberto.burguet@iae.csic.es), Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) and Barcelona GSE

[2] “The Political Economy Determinants of The Firm Size Distribution: Evidence from China” Yu Liu (dav.yu.liu@yale.edu), Yale University

[3] “Swiss Watch Cycles: Evidence of Corruption during Leadership Transition in China” Xiaohuan Lan (xhlan@ckgsb.edu.cn) and Wei Li, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business

Session MW01: Test & Identification, 10:45-12:15, Room N118

5

Session Chair: Mervyn Silvapulle (mervyn.silvapulle@monash.edu), Monash University

[1] “Identifying Structural Breaks in Stochastic Mortality Models” Colin O’Hare (colin.ohare@monash.edu) and Youwei Li, Monash University

[2] “Issues of Mis-specification in Fractionally Integrated Models” K. Nadarajah, Gael M. Martin and Donald Poskitt (donald.poskitt@monash.edu), Monash University

[3] “Bootstrap Specification Tests for The Error Distribution in Multiplicative Error Models” Indeewara Perera and Mervyn Silvapulle (mervyn.silvapulle@monash.edu), Monash University

12:15-14:00 Lunch

Keynote Session III & IV: 14:00-15:30, Room N402 Session Chair: Jiti Gao (jiti.gao@monash.edu), Monash University

[1]. 14:00-14:45: "Wald-Type Tests When Rank Conditions Fail: Problems, Solutions, and Econometric Applications" Jean-Marie Dufour (jean-marie.dufour@mcgill.ca), MaGill University

[2]. 14:45-15:30: "Econometric Issues Arising in Banking " Nicholas Kiefer (nickkiefer@aol.com), Cornell University

15:30-16:45 Coffee Break & Poster Session I

Poster Session I:

[1]. Sourour Baccar, University of Sfax

[2]. Juan Nelson Martinez Dahbura, Keio University

[3]. Yingjie Dong, Singapore Management University

[4]. Xin Fan, Jilin university

[5]. Lingbo Huang, University of Nottingham

[6]. Shuo Huang, Southwest University of Finance and Economics

[7]. Takuya Nakaizumi, Kanto Gakuin University

[8]. Kang Rong, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[9]. Fei Shi, Shanghai Jiaotong University

[10]. Jiajing Sun, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

[11]. Bin Tan, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[12]. Yicheng Wang, University of Rochester

6

[13]. Joachim Wilde, University Osnabrueck

[14]. Fang Yao, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

[15]. Tong Yu, Wuhan University

[16]. Lingxiang Zhang, Beijing Institute of Technology

[17]. Yichong Zhang, Duke University

Parallel Sessions (16:45-18:15) 16:45-18:15 Invited Sessions IP05-IP08 16:45-18:15 Contributed Sessions CP08-CP14 16:45-18:15 Monash-WISE Workshop Session MW02

Session IP05: Time Series and Financial Econometrics, 16:45-18:15, Room N203 Session Chair: John Chao (johncchao@yahoo.com), University of Maryland

[1] “Shrinkage Estimation of Regression Models with Multiple Structural Change” Junhui Qian (junhuiq@gmail.com) and Liangjun Su, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

[2] “Volatility and Quantile Forecasts by Realized Stochastic Volatility Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution” Makoto Takahashi, Toshiaki Watanabe (watanabe@ier.hit-u.ac.jp), and Yasuhio Omori, Hitotsubashi University

[3] “Copula Models with Filtered Nonstationarity” Zhijie Xiao (zhijie.xiao@bc.edu), Boston College

Session IP06: Treatment Effects, 16:45-18:15, Room N303 Session Chair: Yu-Chin Hsu (ychsu@econ.sinica.edu.tw), Institute of Economics,

Academia Sinica

[1] “A Covariate Selection Criterion for Estimation of Treatment Effects” Xun Lu (xunlu@ust.hk), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[2] “Marginal Quantile Treatment Effect” Ping Yu (p.yu@auckland.ac.nz), University of Auckland

[3] “Consistent Tests for Conditional Treatment Effects” Yu-Chin Hsu (ychsu@econ.sinica.edu.tw), Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica

Session IP07: Exchange Rate Dynamics and International Trade in Chinese Economy, 16:45-18:15, Room N302

Session Chair: Jenny Xu (jennyxu@ust.hk), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[1] “Forward Expectation of Exchange Rate and Chinese Importers” David Cook, Yao Amber Li (yaoli@ust.hk), and Chen Zhao, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

7

[2] “A Model of Chinese Real Exhange Rate” Jiandong Ju, Yifu Lin, Qing Liu, and Kang Shi (kangshi@cuhk.edu.hk), Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “Structural Change and The Dynamics of Real Exchange Rate” Yong Wang, Jenny Xu (jennyxu@ust.hk), and Xiaodong Zhu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Session IP08: Financial Econometrics I, 16:45-18:15, Room N301 Session Chair: Heather Anderson (heather.anderson@monash.edu), Monash

University

[1] “Quantifying Informational Linkages in A Global Model of Currency Spot Markets” Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo (mgreenwood@unimelb.edu.au), Viet Nguyen, and Yongcheol Shin, University of Melbourne

[2] “Financial Bubble Implosion” Peter C. B. Phillips and Shuping Shi (shuping.shi@mq.edu.au), Macquarie University

[3] “Continuous and Jump Betas: Applications for Portfolio Management” Vitali Alexeev, Mardi Dungey, and Wenying Yao (wenying.yao@utas.edu.au), University of Tasmania

Session CP08: Asymptotic Theory, 16:45-18:15, Room N401 Session Chair: Xuexin Wang (xuexinwang@outlook.com), Xiamen University

[1] “On The Bootstrap for Moran's I Test for Spatial Dependence” Fei Jin (jin.fei@shufe.edu.cn) and Lung-Fei Lee, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Fixed-B Inference for Difference-In-Differences Estimation” Yu Sun (yusun107@gmail.com), Capital University of Economics and Business

[3] “A Note on Overidentification Test” Xuexin Wang (xuexinwang@outlook.com), Xiamen University

Session CP09: Hypothesis Testing, 16:45-18:15, Room N406 Session Chair: Sainan Jin (snjin@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

[1] “Testing Constancy of Conditional Joint Dependence” Zhonghao Fu (zf33@cornell.edu), Cornell University

[2] “Nonparametric Tests of Conditional Symmetry in Nonparametric Models” Xiaojun Song (songxiaojun2001@gmail.com), Universidad Carlos III De Madrid

[3] “Testing The Martingale Hypothesis” Peter Phillips and Sainan Jin (snjin@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

Session CP10: Mechanism Design & Markets, 16:45-18:15, Room N501

8

Session Chair: Jinpeng Ma (jinpeng@crab.rutgers.edu), Rutgers University

[1] “Contests with Endogenous Entry” Qiang Fu, Qian Jiao (jiaoqian1983@hotmail.com), and Jingfeng Lu, Lingnan College, Sun Yat-Sen University

[2] “Implementation of The Maximum Sustainable Yield under An Age-Structured Model” Zafer Kanik and Serkan Kucuksenel (kuserkan@metu.edu.tr), Middle East Technical University

[3] “Double Auction Mechanisms on Markovian Networks” Jinpeng Ma (jinpeng@crab.rutgers.edu), Xiaojing Xu and Xiaoping Xie, Rutgers University

Session CP11: Monetary Economics, 16:45-18:15, Room D209 Session Chair: Chi-Young Choi (cychoi@uta.edu), University of Texas at Arlington

[1] “Sticky Prices and Costly Credit” Liang Wang (lwang2@hawaii.edu), Lucy Qian Liu, and Randall Wright, University of Hawaii Manoa

[2] “Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets” Eswar Prasad and Boyang Zhang (bz95@cornell.edu), Cornell University

[3] “Impact of Monetary Policy Regime Change on Regional Inflation Dynamics: A Sectoral Analysis” Chi-Young Choi (cychoi@uta.edu), University of Texas at Arlington

Session CP12: Credit Risk , 16:45-18:15, Room D210 Session Chair: Hongbiao Zhao (hongbiao.z@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “The Home Bias in Sovereign Ratings” Andreas Fuchs (mail@andreas-fuchs.net) and Kai Gehring, Heidelberg University

[2] “Credit Risk in A Large Banking System: Econometric Modeling and Empirics” Andre Lucas, Bernd Schwaab, and Xin Zhang (xzhang0125@gmail.com), Central Bank of Sweden

[3] “A Generalized Stochastic Contagion Model for Credit Risk” Angelos Dassios and Hongbiao Zhao (hongbiao.z@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session CP13: Microeconomics II, 15:15-16:45, Room N406 Session Chair: Luhang Wang (luhang.wang@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Decentralizability of Multi-Agency Contracting with Bayesian Implementation” Yu Chen (yourchenyu@gmail.com), Nanjing University

[2] “Loyalty and Durability: Evidence from The Opening of The Toothpaste Tubes” Lemin Wu and Yuheng Zhao (henrybowen@163.com), Peking University

[3] “Quality, Input Choices and the Impact of VAT Rebate: Evidence from Chinese

9

Exporters” Luhang Wang (luhang.wang@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session CP14: Economic Studies of Long-Term Impact, 16:45-18:15, Room D310 Session Chair: He Yang (caseyang718@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Shadow of The Past: The Impact of China’s Great Famine on Economic Behaviors” Miao Liu (ml3085@columbia.edu) and Mengshan Xu, Columbia University

[2] "Creative Industry and Transformation of Economic Structure" Na Zhao (nkzhaona@nankai.edu.cn), Nankai University

[3] “Dual Landownership as Tax Shelter: An Economic Analysis of Perpetual Lease” He Yang (caseyang718@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session MW02: Copula & Finance, 16:45-18:15, Room N118 Session Chair: Param Silvapulle (param.silvapulle@monash.edu), Monash University

[1] “Non-systematic Jump and Volatility Spread in the Option Market” PeiLin Hsieh (ph77@cornell.edu), Xiamen University

[2] “Evaluating Density Forecasts via the Copula Approach" Juan Lin (rmilj@nus.edu.sg) and Ximing Wu, National University of Singapore

[3] “Estimation of Non-parametric Copula and Forecasting of Conditional Value at Risk” Song Li, Jiti Gao and Param Silvapulle (param.silvapulle@monash.edu), Monash University

18:30-20:30 Dinner

June 26

Keynote Session V & VI: 08:30-10:00, Room N402 Session Chair: Soohong Chew (ecscsh@nus.edu.sg), National University of Singapore

[1]. 08:30-09:15: "Individual Heterogeneity, Nonlinear Budget Sets, and Taxable Income" Whitney Newey (wnewey@mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology

[2]. 09:15-10:00: "Epistemic Game Theory" Adam Brandenburger (abranden@stern.nyu.edu), New York University

10:00-10:30 Coffee Break

Parallel Sessions (10:30-12:00) 10:30-12:00 Invited Sessions IP09-IP12

10

10:30-12:00 Contributed Sessions CP15-CP21 10:30-12:00 Monash-WISE Workshop Session MW03

Session IP09: Panel Data Models II, 10:30-12:00, Room N203 Session Chair: Haiqiang Chen (hqchen2009@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Set Identification of The Censored Quantile Regression Model for Short Panels with Fixed Effects” Tong Li and Tatsushi Oka (oka@nus.edu.sg), National University of Singapore

[2] “Statistical Inference for Single Index Panel Data Models” Liping Zhu (zhu.liping@mail.shufe.edu.cn), Jinhong You, and Qunfang Xu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “The Cause of China’s Great Leap Famine Revisited: Using Panel Data Approach for Program Evaluation” Ying Fang, James Kung, and Yang Yang (pdshuimu@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session IP10: Microeconomics III, 10:30-12:00, Room N303 Session Chair: Zeng-Hua Lu (Zen.Lu@unisa.edu.au), University of South Australia

[1] “Investment Cash Flow Sensitivity and Effect of Managers’ Ownership - Panel Data Evidence from Listed Companies of China” Yuanyao Ding (dingyuanyao@nbu.edu.cn) and Xu Qian, Ningbo University

[2] “Information Transmission Between U.S. and China Index Futures Markets: An A-DCC GARCH Approach” Yang Hou (houyy004@mymail.unisa.edu.au) and Steven Li, University of South Australia

[3] “Child Disability, Welfare Payments, Marital Status and Mothers' Labor Supply” Zeng-Hua Lu (Zen.Lu@unisa.edu.au) and Alec Zuo, University of South Australia

Session IP11: Chinese Economy II, 10:30-12:00, Room N302 Session Chair: Guiying Laura Wu (guiying.wu@ntu.edu.sg), Nanyang Technological

University

[1] “Rusticated Youth: Tough Early Adulthood and Health” Yi Lu (justinly6@gmail.com), National University of Singapore

[2] “Understanding Firms in Transition Economies: China and Central-Eastern Europe Compared” Byung-Yeon Kim, Jin Wang (sojinwang@ust.hk), and Cheng-Gang Xu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[3] “Capital Misallocation in Chinese Manufacturing: Financial Frictions or Policy Distortions?” Guiying Laura Wu (guiying.wu@ntu.edu.sg) and Chanbora Ek, Nanyang Technological University

11

Session IP12: The Financial Market and Macro Finance, 10:30-12:00, Room N301 Session Chair: Zhaoyong Zhang (zhaoyong.zhang@ecu.edu.au), Edith Cowan

University

[1] “Dynamic Correlations of The Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong Stock Markets: Evidence from Regime Switching DCC-GARCH Models” Yanlin Shi (yanlin.shi@anu.edu.au) and Kin-Yip Ho, The Australian National University

[2] “Limit Theory for Multivariate Linear Diffusion Estimation” Xiaohu Wang (xiaohu.wang@cuhk.edu.hk), Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “The Exchange Value of RMB and China’s Trade Balance” Zhaoyong Zhang (zhaoyong.zhang@ecu.edu.au) and Kiyotaka Sato, Edith Cowan University

Session CP15: Weak IV, 10:30-12:00, Room N401 Session Chair: Shu Shen (shushen@ucdavis.edu), University of California, Davis

[1] “Adaptive Elastic Net GMM Estimator with Many Invalid Moment Conditions: A Simultaneous Model and Moment Selection” Mehmet Caner, Xu Han (xuhan25@cityu.edu.hk), and Yoonserok Lee, City University of Hong Kong

[2] “Weak Inference for Unstable Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models” Naijing Huang (huang.naijing@gmail.com), Boston College

[3] “Multiple Testing and Breaking The Weak Instrument Curse with Big Data” Shu Shen (shushen@ucdavis.edu) and Jiaying Gu, University of California, Davis

Session CP16: Econometric Modelling, 10:30-12:00, Room N406 Session Chair: Yoshitsugu Kitazawa (kitazawa@ip.kyusan-u.ac.jp), Kyushu Sangyo

University

[1] “Estimation of Threshold Autoregressive Conditional Interval Models” Yuying Sun (kfsyj2007@126.com), Ai Han, Wei Yang, Yongmiao Hong, and Shouyang Wang, Chinese Academy of Sciences

[2] “Maximum Likelihood Estimation of A Spatial Autoregressive Tobit Model” Xingbai Xu (xu.510@osu.edu) and Lung-Fei Lee, The Ohio State University

[3] “Consistent Estimation for The Full-Fledged Fixed Effects Zero-Inflated Poisson Model” Yoshitsugu Kitazawa (kitazawa@ip.kyusan-u.ac.jp), Kyushu Sangyo University

Session CP17: Market Design, 10:30-12:00, Room N501 Session Chair: Yong Sui (yongsui78@gmail.com), Shanghai Jiaotong University

[1] “Emission Tax or Standard? A General Equilibrium Analysis” Zhe Li (lizhezhe@hotmail.com) and Shouyong Shi, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

12

[2] “Optimal Prize Rationing in All Pay Contest with Incomplete Information” Xuyuan Liu (liuxuyuan@nus.edu.sg) and Jingfeng Lu, National University of Singapore

[3] “Group Buying via Social Network” Fei Shi, Yong Sui (yongsui78@gmail.com) and Jianxia Yang, Shanghai Jiaotong University

Session CP18: Growth, Fiscal Policy and Miscellaneous, 10:30-12:00, Room D209 Session Chair: Tsuyoshi Shinozaki (shinozaki@tscc.tohoku-gakuin.ac.jp),

Tohoku-Gakuin Univrsity

[1] “Fiscal Spillovers in The Euro Area” Fabio Canova, Matteo Ciccarelli, and Pietro Dallari (pietro.dallari@gmail.com), Universitat Pompeu Fabra

[2] “Heavy Industry Priority and the Endogenous Formation of Centrally Planned Economic System” Mouhua Liao (Mouhualiao@gmail.com) and Justin Yifu Lin, Xiamen University

[3] “Population Growth and The Transfer Paradox in An Overlapping Generations Model” Kojun Hamada, Tsuyoshi Shinozaki (shinozaki@tscc.tohoku-gakuin.ac.jp), and Mitsuyoshi Yanagihara, Tohoku-Gakuin Univrsity

Session CP19: Financial Econometrics II, 10:30-12:00, Room D210 Session Chair: Feng Yao (feng.yao@mail.wvu.edu), and M. Torero, West Virginia

University

[1] “On The Measurement of Economic Tail Risk” Steven Kou and Xianhua Peng (maxhpeng@ust.hk), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[2] “A GARCH-HAR Model with Realized Volatility” Zhixiang Xu and Hua Zhao (Hzhxmu@163.com), Xiamen University

[3] “Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Value-At-Risk and Expected Shortfall Based on Extreme Value Theory” C. Martins-Filho, Feng Yao (feng.yao@mail.wvu.edu), and M. Torero, West Virginia University

Session CP20: Migration and Aging, 10:30-12:00, Room D309 Session Chair: Hui He (he.hui@mail.shufe.edu.cn), Shanghai University of Finance

and Economics

[1] “How Those Women Are Left Behind? Collective Labor Supply of Migrant Households in China” Xuechao Qian (janexuechao@hotmail.com), The University of Hong Kong

[2] Cream Skimming and Hospital Transfers in A Mixed Public-Private System Terence C. Cheng, John Haisken-Denew, and Jongsay Yong (jongsay@unimelb.edu.au), University of Melbourne

13

[3] “Rapid Aging and Pension Reform: The Case of China” Hui He (he.hui@mail.shufe.edu.cn), Lei Ning, and Dongming Zhu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Session CP21: Comparing Policy Effects across Chinese Regions, 10:30-12:00, Room D310

Session Chair: Junfu Zhang (juzhang@clarku.edu), Clark University

[1] “The Impact of Market Access on Income and Inequality in Rural China: An IV-Quantile Analysis” Zhaoyang Hou (houz@georgetown.edu) and Daniel Westbrook, Georgetown University

[2] “Who Pays Gasoline Tax in China? Based on A Panel Data Approach for Program Evaluation” Bo Zhou (bozhou98@gmail.com), University of International Business and Economics

[3] “Understanding Floor-Area-Ratio Restrictions on Urban Land Development in China” Shihe Fu, Yizhen Gu, and Junfu Zhang (juzhang@clarku.edu), Clark University

Session MW03: Time Series & Forecasting, 10:30-12:00, Room N118 Session Chair: Farshid Vahid (farshid.vahid@monash.edu), Monash University

[1] “Specification Testing in Structural Nonparametric Cointegration” Chaohua Dong and Jiti Gao (jiti.gao@monash.edu), Monash University

[2] “TBA” Yongmiao Hong (yh20@cornell.edu), Cornell University

[3] “Forecasting with ECVARMA Models” Geroge Athanasopoulos, Don Poskitt, Farshid Vahid (farshid.vahid@monash.edu) and Wenying Yao, Monash University

12:00-14:00 Lunch

Keynote Session VII & VIII: 14:00-15:30, Room N402 Session Chair: Arthur Lewbel (lewbel@bc.edu), Boston College

[1]. 14: 00-14: 45: "Matching Models and Data: Recent Progress" Salanie Bernard (bs2237@columbia.edu), Columbia University

[2]. 14: 45-15: 30: "Instrumental Variables Methods for Discrete Data" Andrew Chesher (andrew.chesher@ucl.ac.uk), University College London

15:30-16:45 Coffee Break & Poster Session II

Poster Session II:

14

Jamie Alcock, The University of Sydney

Stephen Burks, University of Minnesota, Morris

Tak Wai Chau, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Guodong Chen, University of Michigan

Sanpan Chen, Huazhong University of Science and Technology

Deborah Gefang, University of Leicester

Xiandeng Jiang, Northern Illinois University

Bing Jiang, Virginia Military Institute

Kai Ou, New York University

Jong Kook Shin, Queen's University Belfast

Chuan-Hua Wei, Minzu University of China

Allan Wright, Center for Latin American Monetary Studies and Central Bank of Barbados

YongjiaXu, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics

Mitsuyoshi Yanagihara, Nagoya University

Guangpu Yang, National University of Singapore

Suxiu Yu, Toulouse School of Economics

Shuxia Zhang, Harbin Institute of Technology

Parallel Sessions (16:45-18:15) 16:45-18:15 Invited Sessions IP13-IP16 16:45-18:15 Contributed Sessions CP22-CP28 16:45-18:15 Monash-WISE Workshop Session MW04

Session IP13: Labor Economics, 16:45-18:15, Room N203 Session Chair: Junsen Zhang (jszhang@cuhk.edu.hk), Chinese University of Hong

Kong

[1] "Can Money ‘Buy’ Schooling Achievement? Evidence from Urban China" Guochang Zhao (gc_zhao@foxmail.com), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[2] “An Incentive Model of The Children’S Human Capital Investment” Andy Chung and Junsen Zhang (jszhang@cuhk.edu.hk), Chinese University of Hong Kong

Session IP14: Microeconomics IV, 16:45-18:15, Room N303 Session Chair: Virginie Masson (virginie.masson@adelaide.edu.au), The University

of Adelaide

[1] “A Classification of Bargaining Solutions by Evolutionary Origin” Sung-Ha Hwang and Jonathan Newton (jonathan.newton@sydney.edu.au),

15

University of Sydney [2] “Incentives for Research Agents: Optimal Contracts and Implementation”

Yaping Shan (yaping.shan@adelaide.edu.au), University of Adelaide [3] “Networks and Favor Exchange Norms under Stochastic Costs”

Seungmoon Choi, Virginie Masson (virginie.masson@adelaide.edu.au), Angus Moore, and Mandar Oak, The University of Adelaide

Session IP15: Chinese Economy in Globalization Era: Trade and FDI, 16:45-18:15, Room N302

Session Chair: Faqin Lin (linfaqin@126.com), Central University of Finance and Economics

[1] “Research Collaborations between Chinese and US Scientists and Engineers: A New Special Relationship?” Richard Freeman and Wei Huang (weihuang@fas.harvard.edu), Harvard University

[2] “International Trade and Internal Migration: Labor Market Effects of Exports in China” Zheng Xu (zxu@law.harvard.edu), Harvard University

[3] “How Do Importers Respond to The 'Dalai Lama Effect'? Finding The Devil in The Firm-Level Detail” Faqin Lin (linfaqin@126.com), Cui Hua, and Andreas Fuchs, Central University of Finance and Economics

Session IP16: Semiparametric Panel Data Models, 16:45-18:15, Room N301 Session Chair: Liangjun Su (ljsu@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

[1] “Binary Response Correlated Random Coefficient Panel Data Models” Yichen Gao, Cong Li, and Zhongwen Liang (zliang3@albany.edu), University at Albany, Suny

[2] “Discontinuous Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Models” Pavel Cizek and Weining Wang (wangwein@cms.hu-berlin.de), Humboldt University at Berlin

[3] “Semiparametric Estimation of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects” Liangjun Su and Yonghui Zhang (yonghui.zhang@hotmail.com), Renmin University of China

Session CP22: Time Series I, 16:45-18:15, Room N401 Session Chair: Bin Wang (wangbin81@sjtu.edu.cn), Shanghai Jiaotong University

[1] “Testing for Strict Stationarity of Time Series Processes” Yongmiao Hong, Xia Wang (wxia820@163.com), and Shouyang Wang, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

[2] “A Powerful Test for Changing Trends in Time Series” Jilin Wu (rainforest1061@gmail.com) and Zhijie Xiao, Shandong University

16

[3] “Nonparametric Estimation of Jump Diffusion Models” Joon Y. Park and Bin Wang (wangbin81@sjtu.edu.cn), Shanghai Jiaotong University

Session CP23: Bayesian Econometrics, 16:45-18:15, Room N406 Session Chair: Xiaoyi Han (han.293@buckeyemail.osu.edu), The Ohio State

University

[1] “A Bayesian Analysis for Regime Shift Model with Nonparametric Regime Switching Mechanism” Haiqiang Chen, Yingxing Li, Ming Lin and Yanli Zhu (zhuyanli_921@126.com), Xiamen University

[2] “Bayesian Estimation of A Spatial Autoregressive Model with An Unobserved Endogenous Spatial Weight Matrix and Unobserved Factors” Xiaoyi Han (han.293@buckeyemail.osu.edu), The Ohio State University

Session CP24: Asymmetric Information, 16:45-18:15, Room N501 Session Chair: Ernest Lai (kwl409@lehigh.edu), Lehigh University

[1] “Why 'I Will Be A Better Person for You' Is A Lie” Jiemai Wu (jiemaiwu@wustl.edu), Washington University in St. Louis

[2] “Social Interactions under Incomplete Information with Heterogeneous Expectations” Chao Yang (waterwavewit1084@163.com) and Lung-Fei Lee, Ohio State University

[3] “Eliciting Private Information with Noise: The Case of Randomized Response” Andreas Blume, Ernest Lai (kwl409@lehigh.edu) and Wooyoung Lim, Lehigh University

Session CP25: Macroeconomics II, 16:45-18:15, Room D209 Session Chair: Jang-Ting Guo (guojt@ucr.edu), University of California, Riverside

[1] “The Dynamics of Hours Worked and Technology” Cristiano Cantore, Filippo Ferroni, and Miguel Leon-Ledesma (m.a.leon-ledesma@kent.ac.uk), University of Kent

[2] “What Measures Chinese Monetary Policy?” Rongrong Sun (rongrong.sun@nottingham.edu.cn), University of Nottingham Ningbo China

[3] “Sectoral Composition of Government Spending and Macroeconomic (In)Stability” Juin-Jen Chang, Jang-Ting Guo (guojt@ucr.edu), Jhy-Yuan Shieh, and Wei-Neng Wang, University of California, Riverside

Session CP26: Financial Econometrics III, 16:45-18:15, Room D210 Session Chair: Tae-Hwy Lee (taelee@ucr.edu), The University of California,

Riverside

17

[1] “Input-Output Linkage and Aggregate Volatility: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach” Liang Chen (liang.chen@economics.ox.ac.uk), University of Oxford

[2] “Testing for Self-Excitation in Jumps” H. Peter Boswijk, Roger J. A. Laeven, and Xiye Yang (X.Yang@uva.nl), University of Amsterdam

[3] “Density and Risk Forecast of Financial Returns Using Decomposition and Maximum Entropy” Tae-Hwy Lee (taelee@ucr.edu), Zhou Xi, and Ru Zhang, The University of California, Riverside

Session CP27: Regional Heterogeneity and Economic Consequences, 16:45-18:15, Room D309

Session Chair: Jennifer T. Lai (econlai@gmail.com), Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

[1] “Lineage-Based Heterogeneity and Cooperative Behavior in Rural China” Quqiong He (quqiong.he@gmail.com) and Ying Pan, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Growing Unequal: Why Do Bigger Cities Have Higher Income Disparity in China?” Binkai Chen, Dan Liu (liu.dan@mail.shufe.edu.cn) and Ming Lu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Consumption Risk Sharing and Self-Insurance Across Provinces in China: 1952-2008” Kenneth S. Chan, Jennifer T. Lai (econlai@gmail.com), and Isabel K. M. Yan, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

Session CP28: Panel Data Models III, 16:45-18:15, Room D310 Session Chair: Jeremy Fox (jeremyfox@gmail.com), University of Michigan

[1] “Early Childhood Education and Care and Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Ability in Japan Child Panel Survey 2010-2012” Hideo Akabayashi (hakab@econ.keio.ac.jp), Chizuru Shikishima, and Jun Yamashita, Keio University

[2] “Spatial Panel with Interactive Effects” Wei Shi (shiweiemail@gmail.com) and Lung-Fei Lee, The Ohio State University

[3] “Identification of Discrete Choice Models for Bundles and Binary Games” Jeremy Fox (jeremyfox@gmail.com) and Natalia Lazzati, University of Michigan

Session MW04: Experimental Econometrics & Game Theory, 16:45-18:15, Room N118

Session Chair: Jason Shachat (jason.shachat@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Generalized Maximum Entropy Estimation of Discrete Sequential Move Games

18

of Perfect Information” Brett Graham (brett.d.graham@gmail.com), Wang Yafeng, Xiamen University

[2] “Motives and Incentives in Crowdsourcing” Kevin J. Boudreau, Karim R. Lakhani, Annika Mueller (amueller.wise.xmu@gmail.com), and Michael Menietti, Xiamen University

[3] “Pure Reciprocity under Alternative Procurement Mechanisms” Jason Shachat (jason.shachat@gmail.com) and Weiwei Zheng, Xiamen University

18:30-20:30 Dinner

June 27

Parallel Sessions (08:30-10:00) 08:30-10:00 Invited Sessions IP17-IP20 08:30-10:00 Contributed Sessions CP29-CP35 08:30-10:00 Monash-WISE Workshop Session MW05

Session IP17: Time Series II, 08:30-10:00, Room N203 Session Chair: Degui Li (degui.li@york.ac.uk), University of York

[1] “A Unified Approach to Testing Stability of Conditional Distributions and Conditional Moments” Bin Chen (bchen8@mail.rochester.edu) and Liquan Huang, University of Rochester

[2] “Dynamics of Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Structural Forward and Backward Looking Approach” Wei Cui (w.cui@ucl.ac.uk), Wolfgang K. ḦArdle, and Weining Wang, University College London

[3] “Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression with Endogeneity and Long Memory” Qiying Wang (qiying@maths.usyd.edu.au)and Peter C. B. Phillips, The University of Sydney

Session IP18: Microeconomics V, 08:30-10:00, Room N303 Session Chair: Dazhong Wang (wangdazhongab@163.com), Shanghai University of

Finance and Economics

[1] “Hybrid Mechanisms for Car Licenses Allocation with Bidders' Budget Constraints” Jianxin Rong (rjx666@126.com), Ning Sun, and Dazhong Wang , Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “A New Pespective on School Choice with Consent” Qianfeng Tang and Jingsheng Yu (jingshengyu1987@gmail.com), Shanghai

19

University of Finance and Economics [3] “Simple Shill-Bid-Proof Mediated Auction Design”

Rukai Gong, Ning Sun, and Dazhong Wang (wangdazhongab@163.com), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Session IP19: Trade and China, 08:30-10:00, Room N302 Session Chair: Cheryl Xiaoning Long (cxlong.wise@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Revisiting The Linder Hypothesis with Production Fragmentation” Xiaoping Chen (xpchen@ntu.edu.sg), Yi Lu, and Yunong Li, Nanyang Technological University

[2] “Trade Cost and Corruption: Evidence from China” Ying Ge (yige60@vip.sina.com), Jie Mao, Huiwen Lai, and Susan Zhu, University of International Business and Economics

[3] “Innovation and Export Growth in China” Feifei Fang and Cheryl Xiaoning Long (cxlong.wise@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session IP20: Health Economics I, 08:30-10:00, Room N301 Session Chair: Xueyan Zhao (xueyan.zhao@monash.edu), Monash University

[1] “The Relationship Between Well-Being and Commuting Re-Visited: Does The Choice of Methodology Matter?” Andy Dickerson, Arne Risa Hole (a.r.hole@sheffield.ac.uk), and Luke Munford, University of Sheffield

[2] “What's The Point of Class? Random Coefficient and Latent Class Models to Identify Types” Stefanie Schurer (stefanie.schurer@sydney.edu.au), Frank Windmeijer, and Audrey Laporte, University of Sydney

[3] “Partial Identification of Treatment Effect in Binary Outcome Models with Endogenous Treatment - An Application to Effect of Health Insurance on Dental” Chuhui Li, D.S. Poskitt, andXueyan Zhao (xueyan.zhao@monash.edu), Monash University

Session CP29: Applied Econometrics I, 08:30-10:00, Room N401 Session Chair: Hon Ho Kwok (kwokhh@hku.hk), The University of Hong Kong

[1] “Testing Covariates in High Dimension Linear Regression with Latent Factors” Kuangnan Fang (xmufkn@163.com), Xiamen University

[2] “Logit Model Bayesian Inference Using Informative and Noninformative Priors” Tahir Abbas Malik and Zhengming Qian (zmqianxm@126.com), Xiamen University

[3] “Identification Problems in Linear Social Interaction Models: A General Analysis Based on Matrix Spectral Decompositions” Hon Ho Kwok (kwokhh@hku.hk), The University of Hong Kong

20

Session CP30: Matching and Assignments, 08:30-10:00, Room N406 Session Chair: Jianye Yan (yanjianye@gmail.com), University of International

Business & Economics

[1] “Assignment Games with Externalities and Matching-Based Cournot Competition” Bo Chen (lemonbc@gmail.com), University of Bonn

[2] “On Two Competing Affirmative Actions under Deferred Acceptance Algorithm” Yun Liu (yliueco@gmail.com), Copenhagen Business School

[3] “Competitive Equilibrium from Equal Incomes for Two-Sided Matching” Yinghua He, Antonio Miralles, and Jianye Yan (yanjianye@gmail.com), University of International Business & Economics

Session CP31: Contracting and Mechanism, 08:30-10:00, Room N501 Session Chair: Haibo Xu (haiboxu@wustl.edu), Fudan University

[1] “Optimal Suspension in a Model of Dynamic Lending with Private Information” Jie Luo (luojiefuture@gmail.com) and Cheng Wang, Fudan University

[2] “Optimal Dynamic Contracting with Moral Hazard and outside Opportunities” Cheng Wang and Youzhi Yang (youzhi.yang@gmail.com), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Learning, Belief Manipulation and Optimal Relationship Termination” Haibo Xu (haiboxu@wustl.edu), Fudan University

Session CP32: Financial Friction and Macroeconomics, 08:30-10:00, Room D209 Session Chair: Dan Lu (danlu@rochester.edu) and Yan Bai, University of Rochester

[1] “Financial Frictions and Firm Dynamics” Paul Bergin, Ling Feng (feng.ling@mail.shufe.edu.cn), and Ching-Yi Lin, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Financial Development and Aggregate Savings Rates: A Hump-Shaped Relationship” Pengfei Wang, Lifang Xu (tsuilf@gmail.com), and Zhiwei Xu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Can Financial Frictions Explain China's Foreign Reserve Puzzle: A Firm Level Analysis” Dan Lu (danlu@rochester.edu) and Yan Bai, University of Rochester

Session CP33: Macro Finance I, 08:30-10:00, Room D210 Session Chair: Linlin Niu (linlin.niu@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Extrapolation Bias in Economic Fundamentals and The Aggregate Stock Market” Liyuan Cui (lc568@cornell.edu), Cornell University

[2] “Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Moment Risk Premia” Huichou Huang (h.huang.1@research.gla.ac.uk), Ronald Macdonald, and Yang

21

Zhao, University of Glasgow [3] “A Flattening Power on the US Yield Curve: The RMB Appreciation Pressure”

Shicheng Huang and Linlin Niu (linlin.niu@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session CP34: Optimal Contract, 08:30-10:00, Room D309 Session Chair: Jieying Hong (hongjieying@gmail.com), ESSEC Business School

[1] “Pay What Your Dad Paid: Commitment and Price Rigidity in The Market for Life Insurance” Radek Paluszynski and Pei Cheng Yu (yuxxx680@umn.edu), University of Minnesota

[2] “Naked Exclusion through Exclusive Contracts” Bo Shen (shenbopku@gmail.com), National University of Singapore

[3] “Optimal Financial Contracting in Strategic Alliances” Jieying Hong (hongjieying@gmail.com), ESSEC Business School

Session CP35: Labor Force Participation, 08:30-10:00, Room D310 Session Chair: Shu-Chen Chang (shu-chen@nfu.edu.tw), National Formosa

University

[1] “Labor Force Participation, Worker Heterogeneity, and Business Cycle” Ran Gu (uctprgu@ucl.ac.uk), University College London and CeMMAP

[2] “Endogenous Labor Participation and Involuntary Unemployment: An Estimated New Keynesian Model” Yuelin Liu (yuelin.liu@unsw.edu.au), University of New South Wales

[3] “Openness and Environmental Pollution” Shu-Chen Chang (shu-chen@nfu.edu.tw) and Wan-Tran Huang, National Formosa University

Session MW05: Nonparametric Econometrics I, 08:30-10:00, Room N118 Session Chair: Ying Fang (yifst1@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Semiparametric Empirical Bayes Estimator of Localized Bandwidth in Kernel Density Estimation” Tingting Cheng (tingting.cheng@monash.edu), Jiti Gao and Xibin Zhang, Monash University

[2] “Feature Selection for Varying Coefficient Models with Ultrahigh Dimensional Covariates” Jingyuan Liu (jingyuan1230@gmail.com), Runze Li, Rongling Wu, Xiamen University

[3] “Semiparametric Inference for Instrumental Variables Models with Partially Varying Coefficients” Zongwu Cai, Ying Fang (yifst1@gmail.com), Ming Lin and Jia Su, Xiamen University

10:00-10:30 Coffee Break

22

Parallel Sessions (10:30-12:00) 10:30-12:00 Invited Sessions IP21-IP24 10:30-12:00 Contributed Sessions CP36-CP42 10:30-12:00 Monash-WISE Workshop Session MW06

Session IP21: Panel Data Econometrics with Cross–Sectional Dependence, 10:30-12:00, Room N203

Session Chair: Qu Feng (qfeng@ntu.edu.sg), Nanyang Technological University

[1] “Estimation and Inference for The Spatial Threshold Model” Badi H. Baltagi, Ying Deng (econdy@163.com), and Chihwa Kao, University of International Business and Economics

[2] “Testing for Sphericity in Two-Way Error Components Panel Model” Guangyu Mao (gymao@sina.cn), Beijing Jiaotong University

[3] “Estimation of Heterogeneous Panels with Structural Breaks” Badi Baltagi, Qu Feng (qfeng@ntu.edu.sg), and Chihwa Kao, Nanyang Technological University

Session IP22: Nonstandard Inference, 10:30-12:00, Room N303 Session Chair: Yuanyuan Wan (yuanyuan.wan@utoronto.ca), University of Toronto

[1] “Inference on Moment Inequalities with Unknown Functions” Shengjie Hong (econhoo@gmail.com), Tsinghua University

[2] “A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for Multinomial Discrete Choice Models” Jin Yan (jyan@cuhk.edu.hk), The Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “Imposing Monotonicity in First Price Auctions: Estimation and Testing” Luo Yao and Yuanyuan Wan (yuanyuan.wan@utoronto.ca), University of Toronto

Session IP23: Topics in Econometrics, 10:30-12:00, Room N302 Session Chair: Chunrong Ai (chunrong.ai@warrington.ufl.edu), University of Florida

[1] “TBA” Xiaohong Chen (xiaohong.chen@yale.edu), Yale University

[2] “On the Informational Content of Special Regressors in Cross sectional and Panel Data Discrete Response Models” S. Chen, Shakeeb Khan (shakeebk@duke.edu), and X. Tang, Duke University

[3] “Estimation and Inference for Treatment Effects with Large Dimensional Panel Data” Haiqiang Chen, Ying Fang, and Yingxing Li (amyli999@hotmail.com), Xiamen University

Session IP24: Mathematical Economics, 10:30-12:00, Room N301 Session Chair: Yeneng Sun (ynsun@nus.edu.sg), National University of Singapore

23

[1] “Ex Ante Efficient Auctions with Bi-Dimensional Private Information on Values and Entry Costs” Jingfeng Lu (ecsljf@nus.edu.sg) and Yeneng Sun, National University of Singapore

[2] “On Pure-Strategy Equilibria in Games with Correlated Information” M. Ali Khan and Yongchao Zhang (yongchao@mail.shufe.edu.cn), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Stationary Markov Perfect Equilibria in Discounted Stochastic Games” Wei He and Yeneng Sun (ynsun@nus.edu.sg), National University of Singapore

Session CP36: Time Series III, 10:30-12:00, Room N401 Session Chair: Giuseppe Cavaliere (giuseppe.cavaliere@unibo.it), University of

Bologna

[1] “Testing for A Nonlinear Unit Root in The Quantile Nonlinear Autoregressive Framework” Haiqi Li (lihaiqi00@hnu.edu.cn) and Sung Y. Park, Hunan University

[2] “A Simple and Powerful Extension to Nielsen's Tuning Parameter Free Unit Root Test” Jijie Zhao (jz397@cornell.edu), Cornell University

[3] “Inference on Co-Integration Parameters in Heteroskedastic Vector Autoregressions” H. Peter Boswijk, Giuseppe Cavaliere (giuseppe.cavaliere@unibo.it), Anders Rahbek, and A.M. Robert Taylor, University of Bologna

Session CP37: Microeconomics VI, 10:30-12:00, Room N406 Session Chair: Yun Wang (yunwang@xmu.edu.cn), Xiamen University

[1] “Comparing Open-Loop and Feedback Nash Equilibria in The Lab” Chen Ling (lingchen@swufe.edu.cn), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Social Networks and Internal Migration in The United States” Jingjing Ye (jingjingye@swufe.edu.cn) and Daniel Millimet, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[3] “An Experimental Investigation on Belief and Higher-order Belief in The Centipede Games” Yun Wang (yunwang@xmu.edu.cn), Xiamen University

Session CP38: Trust and Reciprocity, 10:30-12:00, Room N501 Session Chair: Yi Zhang (yizhang@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

[1] “Myths Can Alter Reality: Victors, Villains and Victims in The Trust Game” Roland Cheo and Lin Jing (jing@coll.mpg.de), MPI for Research on Collective Goods

[2] "Estimating The Production Elasticity of Labor: A Partial Identification Approach"

24

Tadashi Sonoda (sonoda@soec.nagoya-u.ac.jp) and Ashok Mishra, Nagoya University

[3] “Reputation Building Through Failure” Yi Zhang (yizhang@smu.edu.sg) and Huan Wang, Singapore Management University

Session CP39: Housing Economics, 10:30-12:00, Room D209 Session Chair: Yufei Yuan (yyuanwise@163.com), Xiamen University

[1] “On The Impact of Rare Housing Disasters” Shaofeng Xu (sxu@bankofcanada.ca), Bank of Canada

[2] “An Empirical Analysis of Credit Ratings Game in Subprime Mortgage-Backed Security Market” Qi Sun (qi.sun82@hotmail.com), Shanjun Li, and Wei Tan, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Housing Supply and Land Use Regulations: A Chinese Case Study” Yufei Yuan (yyuanwise@163.com), Xiamen University

Session CP40: Macro Finance II, 10:30-12:00, Room D210 Session Chair: Huanhuan Zheng (zheng@cuhk.edu.hk), The Chinese University of

Hong Kong

[1] “Exchange Rate Policy in China after The Financial Crisis: Estimation of the Time-Varying Exchange Rate Basket” Martin Siddiqui (martin.siddiqui@zu.de) and Jarko Fidrmuc, Zeppelin University

[2] “Product Market Threats and Stock Crash Risk” Si Li (sli@wlu.ca) and Xintong Zhan, Wilfrid Laurier University

[3] “Dynamic Global Games: Asset Price Bubble and Depression” Huanhuan Zheng (zheng@cuhk.edu.hk), The Chinese University of Hong Kong

Session CP41: Empirical Finance (in Chinese), 10:30-12:00, Room D309 Session Chair: Hongjun Wu (whjgrm@yahoo.com), Xiamen University

[1] “A Mixed Frequency Macro-Finance Term Structure Model” Tingguo Zheng, Yuhuang Shang (jnuyuhuang@163.com), and Kai Xia, Xiamen University

[2] “罕见灾难风险和股市收益——基于我国个股横截面尾部风险的实证分析” Guojin Chen and Xiu Xu (spring_xux@163.com), Xiamen University

[3] “融资约束与自愿性信息披露” Hongjun Wu (whjgrm@yahoo.com) and Zuoqing Guo, Xiamen University

Session CP42: Optimal Pricing, 10:30-12:00, Room D310 Session Chair: Takashi Hayashi (tkshhysh@gmail.com), University of Glasgow

[1] “Whose Trade Follows The Flag: The Economic Consequences of Bilateral

25

Relation” Yi Zhou and Qin Chen (qinchen1986@hotmail.com), Fudan University

[2] “Induced Clean Technology Adoption and International Trade with Heterogeneous Firms” Jingbo Cui (jbcui2013@gmail.com), Wuhan University

[3] “Gains from Trade” Takashi Hayashi (tkshhysh@gmail.com) and Christopher P. Chambers, University of Glasgow

Session MW06: Econometrics in Macro & Micro, 10:30-12:00, Room N118 Session Chair: Heather Anderson (heather.anderson@monash.edu), Monash

University

[1] “Macroeconomic Forecasting in Data-Rich World: Perspectives from Bayesian Variable Selection” George Athanasopoulos, Minfeng Deng, Anastasios Panagiotelis (anastasios.panagiotelis@monash.edu), and Farshid Vahid, Monash University

[2] “Employers’Age and Gender Preferences: Direct Evidence from Four Job Boards” Miguel Delgado Helleseter, Peter Kuhn, and Kailing Shen (kailing.shen@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[3] “The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Vector Autoregressive Framework” Taya Dumrongrittikul, Heather Anderson (heather.anderson@monash.edu), and Farshid Vahid, Monash University

12:10-14:00 Lunch

Keynote Session IX: 14: 00-14: 45, Room N402 Session Chair: Ho-Mou Wu (hmwu@nsd.pku.edu.cn), Peking University

[1]. 14: 00-14: 45: "China's Rise and Structural Transformation in Africa: Ideas and Opportunities" Justin Lin (justinlin@nsd.pku.edu.cn), Peking University

14:45-15:15 Coffee Break

Parallel Sessions (15:15-16:45) 15:15-16:45 Invited Sessions IP25-IP26 15:15-16:45 Contributed Sessions CP43-CP52

Session IP25: Inference for Panel and Spatial-temporal Data, 15:15-16:45, Room N203

Session Chair: Jia Chen (jia.chen@york.ac.uk), University of York

[1] “Semiparametric Models and Estimation for Nonlinear Regression of Irregularly

26

Located Spatial Time-Series Data” Dawlah Al-Sulami, Zudi Lu (Z.Lu@soton.ac.uk), and Jun Zhu, University of Southampton

[2] “Determining The Number of Groups in Latent Panel Structures” Xun Lu and Liangjun Su (ljsu@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

[3] “Semiparametric GEE Analysis in Partially Linear Single-Index Models for Longitudinal Data” Jia Chen (jia.chen@york.ac.uk), Degui Li, Hua Liang, and Suojin Wang, University of York

Session IP26: Nonparametric Econometrics II, 15:15-16:45, Room N303 Session Chair: Zaichao Du (duzc@swufe.edu.cn), Southwestern University of

Finance and Economics

[1] “A Simple and Robust Model Selection Test for Large Models” Zhipeng Liao (zhipeng.liao@econ.ucla.edu) and Xiaoxia Shi, University of California, Los Angeles

[2] “Modified Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with Economic Application” Wei Lin (weilin_econ@163.com) and Aman Ullah, Capital University of Economics and Business

[3] “Nonparametric Bootstrap Tests for Independence of Generalized Errors” Zaichao Du (duzc@swufe.edu.cn), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

Session IP27: Non- and Semi-Parametric Inference, 15:15-16:45, Room N302 Session Chair: Yundong Tu (yundong.tu@gsm.pku.edu.cn), Peking University

[1] “Estimation in Triangular Models with Binary Response under Quantile Restrictions” Jen-Che Liao (jccepd@gmail.com), Academia Sinica

[2] “Inference in Synthetic Control Approach: Generalization of Difference-in-Difference Estimation” Sangsoo Park (starpac@korea.ac.kr) and Beomsoo Kim, Korea University

[3] “Functional Moving Average Model with Application to Forecast Chinese CPI” Yundong Tu (yundong.tu@gsm.pku.edu.cn), Peking University

Session CP43: Applied Econometrics II, 15:15-16:45, Room N401 Session Chair: Michael Fan (michaelqfan@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Sheep in Wolf's Clothing: Using Least Squares Loss Function for Quantile Estimation” Heng Chen (chenh1207@hotmail.com), Bank of Canada

[2] “Comparing Predictive Accuracy and Model Combination Using Encompassing Test for Nested Quantile Models” Yan Ge (yge001@ucr.edu) and Tae Hwy Lee, University of California, Riverside

27

[3] “Estimating a Large System of Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Using Penalized Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Applications on Asset Returns” Michael Fan (michaelqfan@gmail.com) and Bibo Jiang, Xiamen University

Session CP44: Microeconomics VII, 16:45-18:15, Room D309 Session Chair: Yibai Yang (Yibai.Yang@nottingham.edu.cn), University of

Nottingham Ningbo China

[1] “Job Search, Liquidity Shock and Post Match Quality of Rural to Urban Migrants in China” Yuanyuan Chen (yychen@mail.shufe.edu.cn) and Zichen Deng, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Gender and Racial Peer Effects on Adolescents' Academic Performance and Smoking Behaviors in Endogenous Networks” Chih-Sheng Hsieh (cshsieh@cuhk.edu.hk) and Xu Lin, Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “On The Optimality of Blocking Patents” Yibai Yang (Yibai.Yang@nottingham.edu.cn), University of Nottingham Ningbo China

Session CP45: Political Economics and Institutions, 15:15-16:45, Room N501 Session Chair: Huan Wang (hw276@nyu.edu), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

[1] “The Effects of Local Elections on National Military Spending: Theory and Evidence” Yufeng Sun (pkuskyfree@gmail.com), Yuke Li and Liuchun Deng, Chinese University of Hong Kong

[2] "Local Finance and Local Growth: Macro and Micro Evidence from China" Chunyang Wang (cywangecon@gmail.com), Peking University

[3] “A Prospect Theory of Power Transition: Why Power Transition Does Not Imply War?” Huan Wang (hw276@nyu.edu) and Yi Zhang, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Session CP46: Political Economy, 15:15-16:45, Room D209 Session Chair: Xiaojia Bao (jacybao@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “From Coercion to Politics to Law: The Evolution of Property Rights Protection” Fali Huang (flhuang@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

[2] "China and The World Economy: Wavelet Spectrum Analysis of Business Cycles" Jarko Fidrmuc, Iikka Korhonen (iikka.korhonen@bof.fi), and Jitka Pomenkova, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)

[3] “Political Tournament Competition and Infrastructure Construction in China” Xiaojia Bao (jacybao@gmail.com), Xiamen University

28

Session CP47: Financial Econometrics IV, 15:15-16:45, Room D210 Session Chair: Diego Ronchetti (d.ronchetti@rug.nl), University of Groningen

[1] “Modelling Nonlinear Multivariate Diffusions: A Semiparametric Likelihood-Based Approach” Ruijun Bu (ruijunbu@liv.ac.uk) and Dennis Kristensen, University of Liverpool

[2] “Sovereign Debt, Real Interest Rate and Gold Pricing” Tao Lu (taoluu@gmail.com) and SihaiFang, Research Center of China Securities Regulatory Commission

[3] “Comparing Asset Pricing Models by The Conditional Hansen-Jagannathan Distance” Patrick Gagliardini and Diego Ronchetti (d.ronchetti@rug.nl), University of Groningen

Session CP48: Applied Econometrics III (in Chinese), 15:15-16:45, Room D309 Session Chair: Jianbao Chen (jbchen_65@hotmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “中国政府 2008 年四万亿投资的实证研究: 一种基于菲利普斯稳定化理论的

观点” Huiyu Jin (jinhy@xmu.edu.cn), Heng Cao, and Qingliang Fan, Xiamen University

[2] “具有随机效应的空间自回归单指数面板模型的截面极大似然估计” Jianbao Chen (jbchen_65@hotmail.com) and Lin Sun, Xiamen University

Session CP49: Social Interaction and Coordination, 15:15-16:45, Room D310 Session Chair: Mingli Zheng (mlzheng@umac.mo), University of Macau

[1] “Communication, Leadership and Coordination Failure” Lu Dong (lu.dong@nottingham.ac.uk); Maria Montero, and Alex Possajennikov, Nottingham University

[2] “Language and Coordination: An Experimental Study” John Duffy, Ernest K. Lai and Wooyoung Lim (wooyoung78.lim@gmail.com), Hong Kong University of Science of Technology

[3] “Distributive Justice and The Threshold Level of Resource in The Fair Resource Allocation” Mingli Zheng (mlzheng@umac.mo), Chong Wang, and Chaozheng Li, University of Macau

Session CP50: Industrial Organization, 15:15-16:45, Room N118 Session Chair: Chenhang Zeng (cz_sdu@163.com), Shandong University

[1] “Bundling and Nonlinear Pricing in Telecommunications” Yao Luo (luoyao@Live.com), University of Toronto

[2] “Optimal Nonlinear Pricing by A Monopolist with Information Ambiguity” Chong Wang (yb37353@umac.mo), Mingli Zheng, and Chaozheng Li, University of Macau

29

[3] “A Model of Advance Selling with Consumer Heterogeneity and Limited Capacity” X. Henry Wang and Chenhang Zeng (cz_sdu@163.com), Shandong University

Session CP51: Public Economics, 15:15-16:45, Room N208 Session Chair: Hideya Kato (kato@nagoya-ku.ac.jp), Nagoya Keizai University

[1] “Public Domain” Julio Davila (julio.davila@uclouvain.be), Universite c. de Louvain

[2] “Comparing The Cost of A Carbon Tax in China and The United States” Richard T. Carson, Mark R. Jacobsen, and Antung Liu (antung@ckgsb.edu.cn), Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business

[3] “Federal and State Public Education Expenditures, Human Capital Accumulation, and Vertical Transfers” Hideya Kato (kato@nagoya-ku.ac.jp) and Mitsuyoshi Yanagihara, Nagoya Keizai University

Session CP52: Health Economics II, 15:15-16:45, Room N301 Session Chair: Chun-Yu Ho (chunyu.ho@sjtu.edu.cn), Shanghai Jiaotong University

[1] “Macroeconomic Implications of Long-Term Care Policies” Daniel Barczyk (daniel.barczyk@mcgill.ca) and Matthias Kredler, Mcgill University

[2] “Health Technology & Investment in Health: What Motive Drives Costs?” Hui He and Alberto Batinti (albertobatinti@yahoo.com), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Insuring Against Health Shocks with Self and Public Insurances: Evidence from China” Chun-Yu Ho (chunyu.ho@sjtu.edu.cn), Xin Li and Qinghua Shi, Shanghai Jiaotong University

Session CP53: 15:15-16:45, Room D110 Session Chair: TBA

[1] Neighborhood Interactions and School Choice: Evidence From The New York City Weiwei Hu (weiwei.hu@duke.edu), Duke University

[2] “An Experimental Comparison of Reserve Price Auctions and Auctions with Renegotiation” Jason Shachat and Lijia Tan (ljtan.wise@gmail.com), Xiamen University

18:00-20:00 Dinner