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Strategic Response to Threat of Fusarium Head Blight (FHB)
in Western US Barley Production
Hilton Garden Inn, Idaho Falls, ID
January 9, 2014
Climate Trends in the Pacific Northwest
John Stevenson
jstevenson@coas.oregonstate.edu
Overview - Pacific Northwest
Climate - Past Trends
- Future Projections
- Ag. Reponses to
Changing: - CO2
- Temperature
- Moisture Photo: Dag Endresen
Weather or Climate?
Climate is what you expect…..
Weather is what you get
Current Climate
Current Climate
Past Climate Trends
Source: http://www.climate.washington.edu/trendanalysis/
PNW Average Temperature Change 1895-2010
Modeled v. Observed
Global Temp. Trend 19th
Century
What’s Driving the Change?
Past Climate Trends
Future Climate Trends
Climate Models as Tools
Temperature Project for Pacific Northwest
End
Century
6-11oF
Mid
Century
4-6oF
~ 6.5o F
~ 11.5o F
Temperature Project for East Idaho
Future Climate and
Agriculture Projection
- CO2 Fertilization?
- Pests?
- Moisture Requirements
What Are Impacts on Agricultural Production?
Stockle et al. 2010
Temperatures?
Moisture?
CO2 Fertilization?
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
2020 2040 2080
Pullman (6.2 Mg/ha)
No CO2
CO2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
2020 2040 2080
St. John (5.1 Mg/ha)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
2020 2040 2080
Lind (4.3 Mg/ha)
Project Results: Winter Wheat
Climate Impacts Group 2009
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Baseline 2020 2040 2080
Pullman (CCSM3)
Precipitation
ETo
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Baseline 2020 2040 2080
Pullman (PCM1)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Baseline 2020 2040 2080
Sunnyside (CCSM3)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Baseline 2020 2040 2080
Sunnyside (PCM1)
Annual Precipitation and Potential
Evapotranspiration ETo (mm)
Climate Impacts Group 2009
Moisture Limited
Seasonal (April 1- Sept 30) Precipitation and
Potential Evapotranspiration ETo (mm)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Baseline 2020 2040 2080
Pullman (CCSM3)
Precipitation
ETo
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Baseline 2020 2040 2080
Pullman (PCM1)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Baseline 2020 2040 2080
Sunnyside (CCSM3)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Baseline 2020 2040 2080
Sunnyside (PCM1)
Climate Impacts Group 2009
Severely Moisture
Limited
Climate Influence on Pests
J. Brunner
Decreasing summer flow in snowmelt watersheds
Projected Climate Change Impacts
on Crop Yield: Curtailment
Columbia River Supply & Demand Forecast
Adam, et.al. In
preparation..
Conclusions
• Warming has occurred over 20th century
and will continue through 21st century.
• There will be winner’s and losers.
• Benefits of longer growing season and
increasing CO2 but ….
• Balanced against water and pests/disease
considerations.
How Good are Climate Models?
GCM Simulation of Past Climate in the PNW
Temp
Precip
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