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Climate change and food security in ASEAN +3
Beau Damen FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Overview Climate change and food security
Climate change and food security in ASEAN +3
Addressing climate change and food security
Climate change and food security
Climate change
What is the impact on food security?
Key Variables:
Temperature rise
Change in precipitation
Extreme weather
Sea level rise
C02 Fertilization
Food security
Climate change will effect each element
1) Access
2) Availability
3) Utilization
4) Stability
Four Elements:
Establishing the links
Food system assets
Food production assets
Storage, transport and marketing infrastructure
Agriculturally-based livelihood assets
Non-farm livelihood assets
Food preparation assets
Establishing the links
Food system activities
Producing food
Storing and processing of food
Distributing food
Consuming food
Temperature rise
Change in precipitation
Frequency of extreme events
Sea level rise
CO2 fertilization effects
Climate change
variables
Food production assets
Infrastructure
Agriculturally-based livelihoods
Non-farm livelihoods assets
Food preparation assets
Changes in food system
assets
Producing food
Storing and processing of food
Distributing food
Consuming food
Changes in food system
activities
Food availability
Food accessibility
Food utilization
Food system stability
Impact on food security
Adaptive responses
Migration & conflict
Changes in consumption
patterns
Climate change and food security FAO Framework
Shift in share of local food in diets
Increased consumption of new food items
Reduced consumption of wild foods
Reduced variety of food consumed
Climate change and food security FAO Framework Continued
Changes in consumption
patterns
Changes in human health
Shift in share of local food in diets
Increased consumption of new food items
Reduced consumption of wild foods
Reduced variety of food consumed
Nutritional status
Drivers of climate change
Climate change and food security in ASEAN +3
Observed changes
Temperature rise
Observed temperature changes in Southeast Asia
Source: ADB, 2009
Observed changes
Increase in extreme weather events
Observed changes in extreme events and severe climate anomalies in Southeast Asia
Source: ADB, 2009
Observed changes
Sea level rise
Observed changes in sea level in Southeast Asia
Source: ADB, 2009
Impact on the food system
ASEAN food systems already under strain
Summary of Observed Impacts of Climate Change on the Agriculture Sector in Southeast Asia
Source: ADB, 2009
Future climate changes
Significant regional climate change expected
Mean temperature increase between 2.5 & 4.8 degrees celsius without mitigation
Indonesia, Thailand & Vietnam to experience drier weather over next 20-30 years
Global mean sea level to rise 70 cm
Changes in precipitation difficult to predict, but will likely be higher in most countries
Expected impacts
Pose considerable risk to food security
Water stress to worsen; particularly in Thailand & Vietnam
Rice, corn and soybean yields expected to decline without intervention
Coastal areas face greater risk of flooding and inundation
Economic cost of climate change expected to be greater in ASEAN than world average
Extreme weather
….is an additional threat to food systems
Climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Sou
rce:
EE
PS
EA
& IR
DC
, 200
9
Food security in Asia
Region has poor access to sufficient nutrition
Undernourishment in 2010 by region (millions)
Source: FAO, 2010
Focus on ASEAN +3 Still high proportions of undernourished
Source: FAO data, UNESCAP, 2009
10 to 19
35 to 100
20 to 34
5 to 9
1 to 4
Proportion of undernourished (2003 – 2005)
Addressing climate change and food security
Adaptation strategies
Strategies need to target most vulnerable
Protecting local food supplies, assets and livelihoods
Avoiding disruptions or declines in global and local food supplies
Protecting ecosystems through provision of environmental services
Capacity to adapt
Will differ across the region
Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia
Sou
rce:
EE
PS
EA
& IR
DC
, 200
9
Extreme weather events and food system Thailand and palm oil example
Designing strategies
Steps for selecting adaptation options
Dev
elop
via
ble
adap
tatio
n op
tions
Collate local, introduced and improved adaptation options
Synthesize into potentially suitable adaptation options for location specific conditions
Scientific validation of adaptation options
Local prioritization/selection of adaptation options for field testing
Climate smart agriculture
Promoting synergies
Adoption of sustainable crop
varieties
Farming system adjustment
Crop diversification
Diversifying agriculture systems
Capturing ‘low-hanging fruit’:
Adaptation & mitigation
‘Win-win’ strategies
Restoration of degraded land
Grazing land management
Improved rice cultivation
Water management
Agro-forestry
Biogas
FAO approach
Action at a number of levels
Thank you
Beau Damen FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
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