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Clean electricity options for a free Burma
Chris GreacenPalang ThaiSeminar on
“Energy: Tragedy in Burma”20 November 2007
Chulalongkorn University
Outline
• Default scenarios– For revenue: Mega dams, gas exports– For electrification: power imports & diesel generation
• Addressing the Thai side– Removing bias in load forecasting– Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing
field
• Addressing the Burma side– Some clean community energy options
Tasang7,000 MW
Upper Salween4,000 MW
Lower Salween500 MW
Hut Gyi 1,200 MW
Yawatit600 MW
Tanaosri720 MW
Planned megadams to export electricity to Thailand
Natural gas
• Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world)– 1/3 of gas used in Thailand comes
from Burma– 20% of our (Thai) electricity bills pay
for Burmese gas
• Single largest source of revenue to Burmese military government– Accounts for fully half of Burma’s
exports in 2006– US$2.16 billion to junta from
Thailand.– Total, Chevron, PTTEP, Petronas,
Nippon Oil, etc.
Source: Burma: Foreign Investment Finances Regime. Human Rights Watch. 2007. www.hrw.org/english/docs/2007/10/01/burma16995.htm
Sell electricity to Thailand cheap,buy back expensive
2 baht/kWh8 baht/kWh
1 baht/kWh
Diesel
Can we imagine something different?
Addressing the Thai side:
1) Remove bias in Thailand’s load forecasting
Demand growth has been linear over the past 20 years…
y = 844.21x - 2E+06
R2 = 0.989
0
10000
20000
30000
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Pea
k d
eman
d (
MW
)
Historic peak demand Linear (Historic peak demand)
But official Thai load forecasts are always exponential…
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Pea
k d
eman
d (
MW
)
2007 Forecast Historic peak demand trend
14,500 MW
… so they always overestimate actual demand, building power plants that aren’t needed…
including new hydropower in Burma…
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MW
pea
k d
eman
d
Jun-93
Dec-94
Oct-95
Apr-96 (High)
Oct 96 (Base)
Jun 97 (Low)
Sep 97 (Very Low)
Sep 98 (RER)
Sep 98 (MER)
Sep 98 (LER)
Feb-01
NGO-01
Aug-06
Jan 04 (MEG)
Apr 06 Base
Jan-07
NGO-04
ACTUAL
Addressing the Thai side:
2) Consider clean, decentralized options on level playing field
Summary of PDP 2007
Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it
Source: The World Bank (1993)
2.12.6
4.04.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5
8.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
DSM Hydro fromLaos
Gascombined
cycle
Lignite withFGD
Low-sulphurcoal w/o
FGD
Low-sulphur fuel
oil w/oFGD
LNG Low-sulphur
coal withFGD
Nuclear
Type of Power Plant
Co
st
of
En
erg
y (
US
ce
nts
/kW
H)
Demand Side Management (saving electricity)
Actual 10-year DSM average
cost!!!
1.5
The Arun-3 story
• Planned 201 MW hydro in Nepal• Sell electricity to India, rural electrification• Nepalese NGOs and small business:
“Micro-hydropower cheaper, better for local economy”
• World Bank pulled out of project, project cancelled
• 10 years later…the Nepali power system has seen the addition of:– over a 1/3 more capacity than the Arun-3– at ½ the cost– In ½ the time it would have taken to complete Arun-3
Addressing the Burma side:
(… besides the political and human rights problems…)
1) clean, decentralized energy options – especially for rural
applications
Renewable energy fuels and uses
End use
Electricity Mech power / pumping
Water heating
Cooking Transportation
Technology Off-grid On-grid
Biomass Gasifier ● ● ●
Biogas ● ● ● ●
Steam turbine
●
Direct combustion
● ●
Biodiesel or ethanol
● ● ●
Micro-hydro
● ● ●
Solar ● ● ●
Wind ● ● ●
Biogas from Pig Farms
Reduces air and water pollution
Produces fertilizer
Produces electricity
8 x 70 kW generator
Ratchaburi
Subsidy: 0.3 baht/kwh
Biomass Gasification
Rice mill in Nakorn Sawan400 kW
Gasifierelectricity from wood
Biodiesel
Efficient Charcoal
Micro-hydroelectricity
Source: Inversin, A. R. (1986). Micro-Hydropower Sourcebook.
Hydraulic ram pump
www.agr.gc.ca
Hydraulic ram pump
Solar cooking
Solar electricity – off-grid
• 25,000 baht per household system
• 120 watts• Electricity
for 2 lights + TV
DEEP CY CLEEBB 125
3K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3K
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Thai solar home systems
203,000 solar home systemsSustainability challenge
Solar water heating
Ruggedized solar electric systems built by Karen medics in 3-5 day hands-on trainings
• 7 trainings (2003-2007)• >90 medics trained• 35 clinics
Solar for computer training centers in seven Karen refugee camps
•1 kW PV hybrid with diesel generator•Each powers 12 computers
Thank you
For more information, please contact chris@palangthai.org
This presentation available at:
www.palangthai.org/docs
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