Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Electricity in Thailand:current arrangements, impacts,
alternatives
2 August, 2006ERI
Chris Greacenwww.palangthai.org
Will our electricity future look like
this?
…or this?
… or this?
Natural gas
• Used to make 71% of Thailand’s electricity (among highest in world)
• Cleaner than other fossil fuels (especially SOx) but still big CO2 emissions
• Limited domestic supply.• Human rights issues in
pipeline from Burma (Yadana)
LNG terminal
Natural gas• Severe price volatility – linked to crude oil price.• Now around $0.05 to $0.07 / kWh
Coal
• Used to make 14% of Thailand’s electricity
• History of respiratory illnesses from coal smoke – Mae Mot, Lampang
• Acid rain• Worst fuel for global warming• Limited domestic supply• Cheaper (now) than natural gas
($0.04 to $0.06/kWh)• Strong environmental opposition
Big hydro
• Used to make 6% of Thailand’s electricity
• Consensus: no more big dams will be built in Thailand– Limited sites left in Thailand– Strong environmental opposition
• Environmental issues– Inundation– Fish killed– Global warming– Changes in temperature / sediment
loading / flow regime
• Can be cheap– If reasonably close to load centers
Thailand seen from altitude of 450 kilometers
Burma
Sri Nakharin dam reservoir
Khao Laem dam reservoir
Thailand seen from 54 kilometers
Sri Nakharin dam reservoir
Khao Laem dam resettlement• According to a study produced by the World Bank's
Operations Evaluations Department in 1993, 80% of people evicted by the dam "were...dissatisfied with the resettlement outcome", considering themselves "to be worse off than before resettlement".
• "We had to spend all of our compensation for living, and it wasn't enough, actually. The condition of the land here and my previous land is very different...I miss the fertile resources. I could find things for a meal. The thing that I miss most is rice. Rice is my soul. Our ancestors did rice farming for ages. But now I cannot grow rice and have to buy it, which is also very expensive ... If I could ask the officials for one thing, I would like to ask, 'Please can I return to where I was?'" – Panya Kwanprasertwaree, a Karen elder who was forced to
move because of the dam
Nuclear
• Currently not used to make any of Thailand’s electricity
• Cost uncertain– $0.02 to $0.12/kWh
• Environment & security issues– Generates materials that can
be used to make weapons– Thailand has spotty nuclear
safety record already– Waste dangerous for 250,000
years.
Thai Electricity demand is projected to grow
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
450001992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
MW
Peak D
em
and
Jan 04 (MEG)
ACTUAL
What should be done to make sure that there is enough electricity?
• Natural gas interests say:– “Use more gas!” – “It’s clean(er).”
• Coal interests say:– “Use more coal” for fuel diversity– “Clean” coal– “It’s cheaper”
• Hydropower interests say:– “New dams in Lao and Burma!”– Asian Development Bank GMS grid– “Big hydro for poverty reduction!”– “It’s cheap”
• Nuclear advocates say:– “Nuclear energy is part of the ultimate answer”
Industry response…
What should be done to make sure that there is enough electricity?
ADB/World Bank response…
ADB’s Indicative Master Plan on Power Interconnect-ion in the GMS
Civil society response…
1. Fix governance problems• Transparency, accountability, public participation• Remove conflict of interest• Set up empowered, competent regulatory authority
2. More realistic demand projections3. Consider a full range of alternatives in power
development plan including:• Energy savings• Renewable energy• Combined Heat and Power
Fix governance problems: Transparency, accountability, public
participation
Fix governance problems: Remove conflict of interest
• Example: transmission shouldn’t be controlled by the same business that owns generation.
Fix governance problems: regulatory authority
• Independent– Able to think for itself
• Competent in working for public interest– Public wants reliable, affordable energy without
environmental impacts
• Empowered– Has authority to enforce the rules
Customer Efficiency
Central Generation
Centralized utilityCentralized utility(EGAT)(EGAT)
Decentralized utilityDecentralized utility(A better way)(A better way)
RemoteLoads
Wind
PV
Genset
Fuel Cell
Battery
Customers
Central Generation
21
More realistic demand projections
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
MW
Pe
ak
De
ma
nd
Jun-93
Dec-94
Oct-95
Apr-96 (High)
Oct 96 (Base)
Jun 97 (Low)
Sep 97 (Very Low)
Sep 98 (RER)
Sep 98 (MER)
Sep 98 (LER)
(Feb-01)
(Aug-02)
Jan 04 (MEG)
Apr 06 Base
ACTUAL
Alternative (04)
Jun-93
Dec-94
Oct-95
Apr-96 (High)
Oct 96 (Base)
Jun 97 (Low)
Sep 97 (Very Low)
Sep 98 (RER)
Sep 98 (MER)
Sep 98 (LER)
(Feb-01)
(Aug-02)
Jan 04 (MEG)
Apr 06 Base
ACTUAL
Alternative (04)
•Official Thai Jan 04 forecast overestimated 2006 peak demand by 1674 MW.•Lao NT2 = 995 MW
Power Development Plan(Planned installed capacity = peak demand + 15% reserve)
Options that need to be included
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
• Renewable energy
Options that need to be included
• Saving energy
• Renewable energy
• Combined heat and power (CHP)
Customer Efficiency
Central Generation
Centralized utilityCentralized utility(EGAT)(EGAT)
Decentralized utilityDecentralized utility(A better way)(A better way)
RemoteLoads
Wind
PV
Genset
Fuel Cell
Battery
Customers
Central Generation
28
Saving electricity is cheaper than generating it…
Source: The World Bank (1993)
2.12.6
4.04.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5
8.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
DSM Hydro fromLaos
Gascombined
cycle
Lignite withFGD
Low-sulphurcoal w/o
FGD
Low-sulphur fuel
oil w/oFGD
LNG Low-sulphur
coal withFGD
Nuclear
Type of Power Plant
Co
st
of
En
erg
y (
US
ce
nts
/kW
H)
Demand Side Management (saving electricity)
Saving Energy : big potential in Thailand
• 2000 to 3000 MW: “Achievable and cost effective Demand Side Management (DSM)” in 1991 (Utility study)
Saving energySaving energy in the house: in the house: Using overhangs, trees to keep Using overhangs, trees to keep
house coolhouse cool
ที่��มา : Australian Greenhouse Office (2003)
South
Saving Energy in a typical pumping system
Source: Presentation by Ministry of Energy at Energy Strategy Workshop chaired by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. 28 August 2003
Community micro-hydro
• Mae Kam Pong village, Chiang Mai
• 1x40 kW; 2x20 kW
• Community cooperative
40 kW micro-hydro generator at Mae Kam Pong
Biogas from Pig Farms
Reduces air and water pollution
Produces fertilizer
Produces electricity
Biogas from Pig Farms
• 8 x 70 kW generators
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
• Uses waste water from cassava to make methane
• Produces gas for all factory heat (30 MW thermal) + 3 MW of electricity
Korat Waste to Energy - biogas
• 3 x 1 MW gas generators
Rice husk fired power plant
• 9.8 MW• Roi Et province
Wind power
• Hundreds of kW to 5 MW per turbine
• Now over 15,000 MW in Germany
• Denmark gets >17% electricity from wind
• Power costs in Thailand: 4 to 6 baht/kWh
www.windpower.org
Wind Energy Wind Energy Potential MapPotential Map
Average speed Average speed 4.4 - 6.44.4 - 6.4 m/sec m/sec
Power Potential 1,600 MW
50 kW
400 W(Not to scale)
3 kW
10 kW10 kW
Solar electricity – off-grid
• 25,000 baht per household system
• 120 watts• Electricity
for 2 lights + TV
DEEP CY CLEEBB 125
3K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3KDEEP CY CLE
EBB 1253K THAI STORAGE BATTERY PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
3K
SH-1210M
เครื่��องควบคมการื่ปรื่ะจุแบตเตอรื่��และแปลงกรื่ะแสไฟฟ�าส�าหรื่�บรื่ะบบพล�งงานแสงอาทิ�ตย์!
เป"ด / ป"ดปล�$กไ ฟฟ�ากรื่ะแสสล�บ220 โ วลต์� 50 เฮิ�รต์ซ์�
แบต์เต์อร�� แผงร�บพล�งงานแสงอาที่�ต์ย์�
ไ ฟฟ�ากระแสสล�บ220 โ วลต์� 50 เฮิ�รต์ซ์�
FORTHSOLAR PRODUCT
สาย์ดิ�น
NL
แผงพล�งงานแสงอาทิ�ตย์!
ปานกลาง
ต��า
โหลด / เก�นพ�ก�ดโหลด
เต'ม
สภาวะการื่ทิ�า งาน
สภาวะแบตเตอรื่��
ปรื่ะจุแบตเตอรื่��
SH-1210M
เครื่��องควบคมการื่ปรื่ะจุแบตเตอรื่��และแปลงกรื่ะแสไฟฟ�าส�าหรื่�บรื่ะบบพล�งงานแสงอาทิ�ตย์!
เป"ด / ป"ดปล�$กไ ฟฟ�ากรื่ะแสสล�บ220 โ วลต์� 50 เฮิ�รต์ซ์�
แบต์เต์อร�� แผงร�บพล�งงานแสงอาที่�ต์ย์�
ไ ฟฟ�ากระแสสล�บ220 โ วลต์� 50 เฮิ�รต์ซ์�
FORTHSOLAR PRODUCT
FORTHFORTHSOLAR PRODUCT
สาย์ดิ�น
NL
แผงพล�งงานแสงอาทิ�ตย์!
ปานกลาง
ต��า
โหลด / เก�นพ�ก�ดโหลด
เต'ม
สภาวะการื่ทิ�า งาน
สภาวะแบตเตอรื่��
ปรื่ะจุแบตเตอรื่��
ปานกลาง
ต��า
โหลด / เก�นพ�ก�ดโหลด
เต'ม
สภาวะการื่ทิ�า งาน
สภาวะแบตเตอรื่��
ปรื่ะจุแบตเตอรื่��
HaCo
HaCo
10A
~ON
HaCo
HaCo
10A
~~ON
Grid connected solar electricity
• Baht 250 to 350 per watt
• VSPP program
• Baht 9 to 15 per kWh (compare to baht 2.5 per kWh from PEA)
shop.altenergystore.com
3 kW grid-connect solar electricity at EPPO office in Bangkok
Cost of renewable energy is sometimes higher than conventional
1.36 1.45 2.02 1.57 1.76
9.07
3.98
0.50
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
ก!าซ์ ถ่#านหิ�น น%&าม�นเต์า ชี�วมวล พล�งน%&า(เล(ก) แสงอาที่�ต์ย์� พล�งลม DSM
Pro
duct
ion
cost
(ba
ht/k
Wh)
gas coal Smallhydro
biomass solar wind Energy efficiency
Renewable energy accounts for very little of Thailands’ installed generating capacity
พล�งน%&าก!าซ์ ธรรมชีาต์�น%&าม�นเต์าดิ�เซ์ ลล�กไ นต์�ถ่#านหิ�นน%า เข้+าพล�งงานหิม,นเว�ย์นสาย์ส#งเชี-� อมไ ที่ย์-มาเลเซ์�ย์
Source: EGAT (2003). Power Development Plan
Natural gas
lignite
Big hydro
Fuel oil
0.6% grid-connected renewables
TOTAL: 26,000 MW
Imported coal
Combined Heat and Power
(CHP)… also called
“cogeneration”
CHP potential in Thailand
–8610 MW cogen installed as of 2001
–At least 3,000 MW of additional cogen had applied and have not been accepted.
Summary of alternatives
• Energy saving 2000 to 3000 MW
• Renewables > 3000 MW
• Cogeneration > 3000 MW
• Total peak load in Thailand (2006): around 21,064 MW
Civil society response…
1. Fix governance problems• Transparency, accountability, public participation• Remove conflict of interest• Set up empowered, competent regulatory authority
2. More realistic demand projections3. Consider a full range of alternatives in power
development plan including:• Energy savings• Renewable energy• Combined Heat and Power
