Characteristics of Trade and FDI in Asia and Their Implication ......Characteristics of Trade and...

1

Characteristics of Trade and FDI in Asia and Their Implication for

EiSMAP

October 26, 2007Mitsuo HosenKeio University

2

Scope and perspectiveof my presentation

• Macro-oriented than micro• Focus on Asia, and East-Asia in particular• A Japanese perspective

3

Characteristics of Trade Patterns in East Asia

(1) Increasing intra-regional trade(2) Formation of regional production network

by TNCs(3) Rising triangular trade(4) Emergence of China as a major

exporter/importer and FDI source/recipient

4

Increasing intra-regional trade in East AsiaI n t ra- regional trade rat io

30

40

50

60

70

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Year

%

East Asia

EU15

EU25

NAFTA

5

Rising triangular trade: A recent trend

6

Exports of East Asia

Exports

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

billi

on

do

llar

China

ASEAN4

NIES3

Japan

7

FDI inflows to East Asia

FDI inflows

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

mill

ion d

olla

r

China

ASEAN4

NIES3

Japan

8

Trade creation effect of FDI

• The trade creation effect is particularly large in developing Asia

↑

A relatively large share of cost-pursuing export-base type manufacturing FDI, particularly from the U.S. and Japan, and a relatively small share of domestic market-oriented manufacturing FDI

9

Why developing Asia attracts such manufacturing FDI?

• More liberal trade regimes (export-oriented policies = low import barriers etc.)

• Relatively small individual local markets (except for China)

- Compared with, say, Latin America -

10

A more recent trend in FDI

• Emergence of competitive indigenous companies in developing Asia

↓

An increase in outward FDI from developing Asia

[UNCTAD World Investment Report 2006]

11

Impact of FDI on host countries

• Transfer of capital, technology and modern business method

• Job opportunities• Integrated into regional production

networks

⇒ Economic DevelopmentEconomic Growth

12

IT revolution and technology transfer

• In some cases, technology can now be transferred to host countries more easily

↑

IT revolution and digitization have made some production techniques less obscure and more explicit

13

Policies needed for host countries to attract FDI

14

International cooperation・ Trade and FDI liberalization has played an

important role in promoting production network building by TNCs and in expanding intra-regional trade

unilateral lib. → bilateral FTAs →plurilateral and regional FTAs

・ In the future, high-quality FTAs and global liberalization under WTO will be important factors

15

Implication for EiSMAP coverage (1)(1) Directly related areas・ Trade・ FDI

(2) Impact on host countries・ Employment・ Productivity・ Competitiveness・ GDP

16

Implication for EiSMAP coverage (2)

(3) Domestic economic and policy conditions・ Wages・ Infrastructure・ Intellectual property rights・ Trade and FDI barriers

(4) International cooperation・ FTA