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1
Characteristics of Trade and FDI in Asia and Their Implication for
EiSMAP
October 26, 2007Mitsuo HosenKeio University
2
Scope and perspectiveof my presentation
• Macro-oriented than micro• Focus on Asia, and East-Asia in particular• A Japanese perspective
3
Characteristics of Trade Patterns in East Asia
(1) Increasing intra-regional trade(2) Formation of regional production network
by TNCs(3) Rising triangular trade(4) Emergence of China as a major
exporter/importer and FDI source/recipient
4
Increasing intra-regional trade in East AsiaI n t ra- regional trade rat io
30
40
50
60
70
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Year
%
East Asia
EU15
EU25
NAFTA
5
Rising triangular trade: A recent trend
6
Exports of East Asia
Exports
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
billi
on
do
llar
China
ASEAN4
NIES3
Japan
7
FDI inflows to East Asia
FDI inflows
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
mill
ion d
olla
r
China
ASEAN4
NIES3
Japan
8
Trade creation effect of FDI
• The trade creation effect is particularly large in developing Asia
↑
A relatively large share of cost-pursuing export-base type manufacturing FDI, particularly from the U.S. and Japan, and a relatively small share of domestic market-oriented manufacturing FDI
9
Why developing Asia attracts such manufacturing FDI?
• More liberal trade regimes (export-oriented policies = low import barriers etc.)
• Relatively small individual local markets (except for China)
- Compared with, say, Latin America -
10
A more recent trend in FDI
• Emergence of competitive indigenous companies in developing Asia
↓
An increase in outward FDI from developing Asia
[UNCTAD World Investment Report 2006]
11
Impact of FDI on host countries
• Transfer of capital, technology and modern business method
• Job opportunities• Integrated into regional production
networks
⇒ Economic DevelopmentEconomic Growth
12
IT revolution and technology transfer
• In some cases, technology can now be transferred to host countries more easily
↑
IT revolution and digitization have made some production techniques less obscure and more explicit
13
Policies needed for host countries to attract FDI
14
International cooperation・ Trade and FDI liberalization has played an
important role in promoting production network building by TNCs and in expanding intra-regional trade
unilateral lib. → bilateral FTAs →plurilateral and regional FTAs
・ In the future, high-quality FTAs and global liberalization under WTO will be important factors
15
Implication for EiSMAP coverage (1)(1) Directly related areas・ Trade・ FDI
(2) Impact on host countries・ Employment・ Productivity・ Competitiveness・ GDP
16
Implication for EiSMAP coverage (2)
(3) Domestic economic and policy conditions・ Wages・ Infrastructure・ Intellectual property rights・ Trade and FDI barriers
(4) International cooperation・ FTA