Chapter 7 - ROR Analysis for a Single Alternative

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Lecture slides to accompany

Engineering Economy7th edition

Leland Blank

Anthony Tarquin

Chapter 7Chapter 7Rate of Return Rate of Return

One ProjectOne Project

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LEARNINGLEARNING OUTCOMESOUTCOMES

1.Understand meaning of ROR2.Calculate ROR for cash flow

series3.Understand difficulties of ROR4.Determine multiple ROR

values5.Calculate External ROR (EROR)6.Calculate r and i for bonds

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Interpretation of RORInterpretation of RORRate paid on unrecovered balance of borrowed money such that final payment brings balance to exactly

zerowith interest considered

ROR equation can be written in terms of PW, AW, or FW

Numerical value can range from -100% to infinity

Use trial and error solution by factor or spreadsheet

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ROR Calculation and Project EvaluationROR Calculation and Project Evaluation To determine ROR, find the i* value in the relation

PW = 0 or AW = 0 or FW = 0

Alternatively, a relation like the following finds i*

PWoutflow = PWinflow

For evaluation, a project is economically viable if

i* ≥ MARR

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Finding ROR by Spreadsheet FunctionFinding ROR by Spreadsheet FunctionUsing the RATE function

= RATE(n,A,P,F)

P = $-200,000 A = $-15,000n = 12 F = $435,000

Function is= RATE(12,-15000,-200000,450000)

Display is i* = 1.9%

Using the IRR function

= IRR(first_cell, last_cell)

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= IRR(B2:B14)

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ROR is the unique i* rate at which a PW, FW, or AW relation equals exactly 0

ROR Calculation Using PW, FW or AW RelationROR Calculation Using PW, FW or AW Relation

Since i* > MARR = 15%, the company should buy the machine

Example: An investment of $20,000 in new equipment will generate income of $7000 per year for 3 years, at which time the machine can be sold for an estimated $8000. If the company’s MARR is 15% per year, should it buy the machine?

Solution:: The ROR equation, based on a PW relation, is:

Solve for i* by trial and error or spreadsheet: i* = 18.2% per year

0 = -20,000 + 7000(P/A,i*,3) + 8000(P/F,i*,3)

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Incremental analysis necessary for multiple alternative evaluations (discussed later)

Special Considerations for RORSpecial Considerations for ROR

May get multiple i* values (discussed later)

i* assumes reinvestment of positive cash flows earn at i* rate (may be unrealistic)

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Multiple ROR ValuesMultiple ROR ValuesMultiple i* values may exist when there is more than one sign

change in net cash flow (CF) series. Such CF series are called non-conventional

Two tests for multiple i* values:

Descarte’s rule of signs: total number of real i* values is ≤ the number of sign changes in net cash flow series.

Norstrom’s criterion: if the cumulative cash flow starts off negatively and has only one sign change, there is only one positive root .

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Plot of PW for CF Series with Multiple ROR Values

i* values at ~8% and ~41%

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Example: Multiple i* ValuesExample: Multiple i* Values

Solution:

Determine the maximum number of i* values for the cash flow shown below

Year Expense Income

0 -12,000 -1 -5,000 + 3,0002 -6,000 +9,0003 -7,000 +15,0004 -8,000 +16,0005 -9,000 +8,000

Therefore, there is only one i* value ( i* = 8.7%)

Net cash flow

-12,000 -2,000+3,000+8,000

-1,000+8,000

Cumulative CF

-12,000-14,000-11,000

-3,000

+5,000+4,000

The cumulative cash flow begins negatively with one sign change

The sign on the net cash flow changes twice, indicating two possible i* values

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Removing Multiple i* ValuesRemoving Multiple i* Values

Two approaches to determine External ROR (EROR)• (1) Modified ROR (MIRR)• (2) Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

Two new interest rates to consider:Investment rate ii – rate at which extra funds are invested external to the project

Borrowing rate ib – rate at which funds are borrowed from an external source to provide funds to the project

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Modified ROR Approach (MIRR)Modified ROR Approach (MIRR)

Four step Procedure:Determine PW in year 0 of all negative CF at ib

Determine FW in year n of all positive CF at ii

Calculate EROR = i’ by FW = PW(F/P,i’,n)

If i’ ≥ MARR, project is economically justified

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Example: EROR Using MIRR MethodExample: EROR Using MIRR MethodFor the NCF shown below, find the EROR by the MIRR method if MARR = 9%, ib = 8.5%, and ii = 12%

Year 0 1 2 3NCF +2000 -500 -8100 +6800

Solution: PW0 = -500(P/F,8.5%,1) - 8100(P/F,8.5%,2) = $-7342

FW3 = 2000(F/P,12%,3) + 6800 = $9610

PW0(F/P,i’,3) + FW3 = 0-7342(1 + i’)3 + 9610 = 0

i’ = 0.939 (9.39%)

Since i’ > MARR of 9%, project is justified© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved

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Return on Invested Capital Approach Return on Invested Capital Approach Measure of how effectively project uses funds that remain internal to project

ROIC rate, i’’, is determined using net-investment procedure

Three step Procedure(1) Develop series of FW relations for each year t using: Ft = Ft-1(1 + k) + NCFt

where: k = ii if Ft-1 > 0 and k = i’’ if Ft-1 < 0

(2) Set future worth relation for last year n equal to 0 (i.e., Fn= 0); solve for i’’

(3) If i’’ ≥ MARR, project is justified; otherwise, reject © 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved

ROIC ExampleROIC Example

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For the NCF shown below, find the EROR by the ROIC method if MARR = 9% and ii = 12%

Year 0 1 2 3NCF +2000 -500 -8100 +6800

Solution:Year 0: F0 = $+2000 F0 > 0; invest in year 1 at ii = 12%Year 1: F1 = 2000(1.12) - 500 = $+1740 F1 > 0; invest in year 2 at ii = 12%Year 2: F2 = 1740(1.12) - 8100 = $-6151 F2 < 0; use i’’ for year 3 Year 3: F3 = -6151(1 + i’’) + 6800 Set F3 = 0 and solve for i’’

-6151(1 + i’’) + 6800 = 0 i’’= 10.55%

Since i’’ > MARR of 9%, project is justified© 2012 by McGraw-Hill All Rights Reserved

Important Points to RememberImportant Points to RememberAbout the computation of an EROR value

EROR values are dependent upon the selected investment and/or borrowing rates Commonly, multiple i* rates, i’ from MIRR and i’’ from ROIC have different values

About the method used to decide For a definitive economic decision, set the MARR value and use the PW or AW method to determine economic viability of the project

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ROR of Bond InvestmentROR of Bond InvestmentBond is IOU with face value (V), coupon rate (b), no. of payment periods/year (c),dividend (I), and maturity date (n). Amount paid for the bond is P.

I = Vb/cGeneral equation for i*: 0 = - P + I(P/A,i*,nxc) + V(P/F,i*,nxc)

Solution: (a) I = 10,000(0.06)/4 = $150 per quarter

ROR equation is: 0 = -8000 + 150(P/A,i*,20) + 10,000(P/F,i*,20)By trial and error or spreadsheet: i* = 2.8% per quarter

(b) Nominal i* per year = 2.8(4) = 11.2% per year Effective i* per year = (1 + 0.028)4 – 1 = 11.7% per year

A $10,000 bond with 6% interest payable quarterly is purchased for $8000.If the bond matures in 5 years, what is the ROR (a) per quarter, (b) per year?

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Summary of Important PointsSummary of Important Points

More than 1 sign change in NCF may cause multiple i* values

Descarte’s rule of signs and Norstrom’s criterion useful when multiple i* values are suspected

ROR equations can be written in terms of PW, FW, or AW and usually require trial and error solutioni* assumes reinvestment of positive cash flows at i* rate

EROR can be calculated using MIRR or ROIC approach. Assumptions about investment and borrowing rates is required.

General ROR equation for bonds is 0 = - P + I(P/A,i*,nxc) + V(P/F,i*,nxc)

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