Chapman Nov 1309

WATER, WATER EVERYWHERE – BUT GOING DOWN THE DRAIN

Colin ChapmanVice President, STRATFOR

AUSTRALIA: TIME FOR ANOTHER SURGE

All the evidence suggests that Australia could significantly boost the production of food.

With a population of 20,000 it currently produces enough food for 60,000. It could double that

World War II provided the impetus for a surge in farming. There could – and should – be another surge now.

FOOD RATIONING IN WWII BRITAIN Big Boost for Australia

RICE TO CHINA, PASTA TO ITALY

Australia now sells sushi rice to the Japanese, basmati rice to South Asia, pasta to the Italians, claret to the French, and beef to the Texans.

AUSTRALIAN TOP 10 AGRICULTURAL EXPORT MARKETS   Market Value A$m Rank Percentage

TOTAL 28,637 100.0%

Japan 4,416 1 15.4%

China 3,122 2 10.9%

United States 2,645 3 9.2%

Indonesia 1,427 4 5.0%

New Zealand 1,366 5 4.8%Republic of Korea 1,348 6 4.7%

United Kingdom 1,079 7 3.8%

Saudi Arabia 892 8 3.1%

Singapore 716 9 2.5%

Malaysia 712 10 2.5%

AUSTRALIA: ONLY ARID IN PARTS

Australia is the sixth largest country after Canada, Russia, China, the United States, and Brazil.

Even after you take into account the fact that two-thirds of Australia is arid or semi-arid, that still leaves 2.5 million square kilometres that are not, which makes it a big country for food production.

TWO THIRDS OF AUSTRALIA IS ARID OR SEMI ARID

LACK OF POLITICAL VISION Politicians of both main parties lack vision in

agriculture

BECAUSE: There are no votes in it. Australia is an urban race, and most people

live in six cities, with the vast majority in Sydney and Melbourne.

2 IN EVERY 3 AUSTRALIANS LIVE IN SIX COASTAL CITIES

THE GREAT DROUGHT YES – there has been several years of

drought

BUTAustralia is not short of water

The cities and towns where most Australians live enjoy more rainfall than many locations that are important centres for large scale farming in North America and Europe.

WISE WORDS“Australia’s water supply system is broken, and needs urgent solutions. Unavoidable water scarcity is one of Australia’s greatest myths.”

Katie Lahey, CEOBusiness Council of Australia

THE GREAT MURRAY-DARLING BASIN

MURRAY DARLING BASIN Australia’s most important agricultural

watercourse. Blighted by state feuding and lack of

investment. The whole area could be revitalized if

Canberra mobilized the resources needed and encouraged private investment in water supply.

Water supply is run by public sector utilities with no imagination and a fixation on rationing.

Privatization the only sensible answer.

AUSTRALIA RANKS NO.3 WATER CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA

DRY CONTINENT..CHEAP WATER! Australians pay far too little for their water They happily pay 500 per cent more for

imported bottled water than for what comes out of the tap.

Water is half as expensive as in Britain and most of Europe.

There is a water trading scheme – but it is unsophisticated.

If water was economically priced, then it would be supplied – via desalination using boundless natural gas or pipelines from the wet north.

“MAKE BEEF A WINNER”

BEEF CATTLE GREEDY FOR WATER

Producing one kilogram of beef uses as much water as an individual drinks in a year.

BUT

No Prime Minister is going to preside over the death of the Great Australian BBQ

AS REPORTED IN THE TIMES, LONDONOctober 16, 2007 Holy cow! We’re crazy to farm livestock like

thisOur guest columnist on the green case for changing our eating habitsJoanna Lumley  I prefer not to eat food that has a face. But many of my nearest and dearest love

their meat, and who am I to ask them not to eat so much of it? Until now, that is. Having just discovered the huge impact of livestock production on global warming, I

need hesitate no longer. Reducing our meat consumption is no longer an option but an urgent necessity. Here’s why. Eighteen per cent of the greenhouse gas emissions that we produce come from the production of livestock – that’s 4 per cent more than from transport. That’s not all, as the amount of meat and dairy produce consumed globally is set roughly to double by 2050: so if there’s a problem now, how big will it be by then?

900 UNCAPPED BORES IN AUSTRALIA’S GREAT ARTESIAN BASIN

GAS FIELDS IN THE COOPER BASIN COULD BE USED FOR DESALINATION

WHERE IT RAINS One third of Australia’s irrigation water is

unaccounted for before it reaches the farm gate.

70% of Australia’s rainfall falls in the tropical north.

ALL but five per cent of this is lost – it evaporates or flows out to the oceans.

SOME could be diverted to the Murray Darling Basin.

And farms can be developed in the North and along the coasts

LIBYA’S GREAT MAN-MADE RIVER –VISIONARY PLANNING

FIRST MOVES TOWARDS ABORIGINAL LAND RIGHTS

GO NORTH, YOUNG MAN But Australians don’t want to. The Ord River scheme is a land of milk and

honey – but only 6000 live there. The Chinese would like to farm Northern

lands - but are snagged by problems over land rights and native title, and Australia’s rigid and highly restrictive migration rules.

Only a few Pacific islanders are allowed in as temporary farm workers

SEASONAL WORKERS LIMITED TO PACIFIC ISLANDERS AND THE YOUNG

TWO THIRDS OF AUSTRALIA IS ARID OR SEMI ARID

SO THE MYTH CONTINUES

Expanding Australian agriculture is in the too hard basket, and will have to wait for the arrival of political leadership with vision.

But, 40 years on, who will own the Northern territory?