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California Statewide Travel Demand Model. California Statewide Travel Demand Model Update . June 17, 2014. Cambridge Systematics. CSTDM Status. All Models have been fully completed Base year validation and sensitivity testing are complete Future Year Forecasts are nearly complete - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Transportation leadership you can trust.
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California Statewide Travel Demand Model
California Statewide Travel Demand Model Update
June 17, 2014
Cambridge Systematics
2
CSTDM Status
All Models have been fully completed» Base year validation and sensitivity testing are
complete
Future Year Forecasts are nearly complete» Results and Growth Statistics will be available
within two weeks» Horizon Years:
• 2015, 2020 (complete)• 2035, 2040, 2050 (in progress)
Documentation is in progress» Expected to be fully completed within one month
3
Year 2010 Model Validation by Screenline
Traffic Counts
CSTDM Forecast (Colors are for each model component)
Difference between Counts and Model
4
Highway Assignment Validation Summary
NCHRP 255 Standard
Modeled Volume
5
Changes in Population and Employment
2000 2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500
10,000,00020,000,00030,000,00040,000,00050,000,00060,000,000
Total Population
2000 2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Total Employment
2010 2015 2020 2035 2040 20500.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8% Average Annual % Change
Population
6
Next Steps
For CTP Forecasting, we will start with sensitivity tests» Expand Transit (already tested)» Road User Charges» Congestion Pricing» Increasing occupancies on HOV across the state
Test draft package of policies/strategies
Presentation of initial results to PAC at August Meeting
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