Business As Usual

Business As UsualBusiness As Usual

The inability to overcome policy and or The inability to overcome policy and or institutional inertia in order to pull your institutional inertia in order to pull your head out of your ass and start on a head out of your ass and start on a sensible pathway to sustainabilitysensible pathway to sustainability

Much more difficult obstacle to overcome Much more difficult obstacle to overcome than you think – you live in a legacy than you think – you live in a legacy world.world.

The REAL world matters and in this The REAL world matters and in this course we exam issues always in that course we exam issues always in that contextcontext

Business world analogyBusiness world analogyThe 7 reasons that (business) culture resists The 7 reasons that (business) culture resists change change 

1.1.There isn't any real need for the changeThere isn't any real need for the change2.2.The change is going to make it harder for The change is going to make it harder for them to meet their needsthem to meet their needs3.3.The risks seem to outweigh the benefitsThe risks seem to outweigh the benefits4.4.They don't think they have the ability to They don't think they have the ability to make the changemake the change5.5.They believe the change will failThey believe the change will fail6.6.Change process is being handled improperly Change process is being handled improperly by managementby management7.7.The change is inconsistent with their valuesThe change is inconsistent with their values

Why Energy Policy Why Energy Policy MattersMatters

Energy:

•Electricity•Heat•Transportation

BAU WaveformBAU Waveform

Methane Emissions Growing

This small rise is significantRevised IPCC GWP: 21 36CO2 = 400 ppmCH4 = 1.85*36 = +67 467 ppm

Flat from 2000 -2007

Electricity growth – must occur with carbon Electricity growth – must occur with carbon free emissions as fast as practicalfree emissions as fast as practical

1950-2000: Electricity growth scales as (Pop Growth)3.5

Latest Extended Recession: slight Latest Extended Recession: slight reduction (about 2% from peak) reduction (about 2% from peak)

Transportation and Electricity Production are equal in GHG

US Reduction in GHG US Reduction in GHG emissions – only a temporary emissions – only a temporary

condition condition

7% Reduction 2009 Market Crash

2012 Mild Winters

Overall from 2005-2015 is a reduction of .8% per year

So, Business AS USUAL!

But the US is No longer The WorldBut the US is No longer The World

Sources of CarbonSources of Carbon

The Chinese SledgehammerThe Chinese Sledgehammer

China was relatively unaffected by the global meltdown of 2009

2014: Legacy Legacy 2014: Legacy Legacy LegacyLegacy

And Per Capita is Increasing – which is And Per Capita is Increasing – which is why 3.26 ppm is happeningwhy 3.26 ppm is happening

Recessionblip

1990-2003stability

33% Increase in Per Capita Emissions from 1975 until now

Coal Coal CoalCoal Coal Coal

Price of ConsumptionPrice of Consumption

Sustainability Awareness Needs to Begin Here

CHINA

LPR 2014LPR 2014

Operationally we have become GOD