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Business As Usual. The inability to overcome policy and or institutional inertia in order to pull your head out of your ass and start on a sensible pathway to sustainability Much more difficult obstacle to overcome than you think – you live in a legacy world. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Business As UsualBusiness As Usual
The inability to overcome policy and or The inability to overcome policy and or institutional inertia in order to pull your institutional inertia in order to pull your head out of your ass and start on a head out of your ass and start on a sensible pathway to sustainabilitysensible pathway to sustainability
Much more difficult obstacle to overcome Much more difficult obstacle to overcome than you think – you live in a legacy than you think – you live in a legacy world.world.
The REAL world matters and in this The REAL world matters and in this course we exam issues always in that course we exam issues always in that contextcontext
Business world analogyBusiness world analogyThe 7 reasons that (business) culture resists The 7 reasons that (business) culture resists change change
1.1.There isn't any real need for the changeThere isn't any real need for the change2.2.The change is going to make it harder for The change is going to make it harder for them to meet their needsthem to meet their needs3.3.The risks seem to outweigh the benefitsThe risks seem to outweigh the benefits4.4.They don't think they have the ability to They don't think they have the ability to make the changemake the change5.5.They believe the change will failThey believe the change will fail6.6.Change process is being handled improperly Change process is being handled improperly by managementby management7.7.The change is inconsistent with their valuesThe change is inconsistent with their values
Why Energy Policy Why Energy Policy MattersMatters
Energy:
•Electricity•Heat•Transportation
BAU WaveformBAU Waveform
Methane Emissions Growing
This small rise is significantRevised IPCC GWP: 21 36CO2 = 400 ppmCH4 = 1.85*36 = +67 467 ppm
Flat from 2000 -2007
Electricity growth – must occur with carbon Electricity growth – must occur with carbon free emissions as fast as practicalfree emissions as fast as practical
1950-2000: Electricity growth scales as (Pop Growth)3.5
Latest Extended Recession: slight Latest Extended Recession: slight reduction (about 2% from peak) reduction (about 2% from peak)
Transportation and Electricity Production are equal in GHG
US Reduction in GHG US Reduction in GHG emissions – only a temporary emissions – only a temporary
condition condition
7% Reduction 2009 Market Crash
2012 Mild Winters
Overall from 2005-2015 is a reduction of .8% per year
So, Business AS USUAL!
But the US is No longer The WorldBut the US is No longer The World
Sources of CarbonSources of Carbon
The Chinese SledgehammerThe Chinese Sledgehammer
China was relatively unaffected by the global meltdown of 2009
2014: Legacy Legacy 2014: Legacy Legacy LegacyLegacy
And Per Capita is Increasing – which is And Per Capita is Increasing – which is why 3.26 ppm is happeningwhy 3.26 ppm is happening
Recessionblip
1990-2003stability
33% Increase in Per Capita Emissions from 1975 until now
Coal Coal CoalCoal Coal Coal
Price of ConsumptionPrice of Consumption
Sustainability Awareness Needs to Begin Here
CHINA
LPR 2014LPR 2014
Operationally we have become GOD