Brussels, 4 December 2013 Louise O. Fresco Food in times of scarcity and abundance Feeding future...

Brussels, 4 December 2013

Louise O. Fresco

Food in times of scarcity and abundanceFeeding future generations:

a few thoughts

1

A history of poverty and scarcity

2

A history of low yields, manual labour and no agrochemicals

3

Population vs scientific developments

genome project

high speed computers

discovery DNA

penicillinstart 1st agricultural revolution

start industrial revolution start 2nd agricultural revolution invention plow

1st irrigation worksrail roads

war on malaria

0

time (years)

Adapted from: Fogel & Robbert 1999

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

4

In the last century…

Life expectancy (x2)

Cost of food (:10)

Costs electricity (: 10)

Costs transportation (: 10)

Poverty (<1.25€/day) 1 in 2 in 1900, 1 in 8 today

5

Food availability per capita also in 3d world

50

75

100

125

150

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020year

Asia

S. America

SS Africa

Source: FAOstat 6

The spectacular success of agricultural science: productivity in the last century

land productivity x

5 - 6

labor productivity x

200 - 300

energy, other inputs

x 2 - 40,8

1,8

9

600

350

120

200

400

600

800

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10,0

1250 1500 1750jaar

2000

7

8

Land pressure: areas where > 30% of the land is cultivated

9

Urbanisation

10

Changing urban diets

11

Climate change and fluctuation in rainfall

12

Competition for water

13

Future food systems

14

From craft to finetuning the industry

From adaptive (adapting to environment) to maximum control (fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation)

Resource use efficiency

Labor Greenhouse

production

Substrate production

15

Labour use efficiency

16

Trade-offs in animal production

17

Genetic modification?

18

Bio-based economy

Bulk crops (oil palm, sugar cane) for energy

Agricultural and urban residues for energy, compost, bio-materials and nutrient retrieval

Cascading and refinery

19

Multiple objectives

Environmentally friendly Animal friendly Landscape and biodiversity Socio-economic equity

20

Organic & small scalean ideal that will not feed the world (but may help)

21

Practicalities of sustainability(the 5 R)

Reduce Re-use Recycle Replace Redesign

(including legal and fiscal frameworks)

22

Megatrends: food and health

Vegetables, fruit and fish are good for health

Aim to produce health inducing component through choices in inputs, farming systems and processing: multiple unsaturated fats

Good Agricultural Practices: agricultural products free from residues (nitrate, pesticides)

Food safety: tracking and tracing (BSE, dioxine)

23

From food to fashion

flavours health

nutrition

chemicals & materials

energy

fibers fuel

fermentation products

fresh vegetables food crops

fodderfunctional

molecules

flowers fruits

farma fragrances

24

Future of animal production

25

Alternative proteins

26

18

Metropolitan agriculture

27

Biobased economy

Adapted

crops Newagrosystems

Biofuels Biomaterials

Biorefinery

28

Role of supermarkets

29

Safety in the food chain

30

…

Yes we can! But it will require all our efforts to create the scientific

basis for innovation and to enhance political support

31