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Thornton
May
thorntonamay@aol.com
A01
AUTO INDUSTRY LEADERSHIP FORUM
High-Value Analytics for the Entire Enterprise [6 May 2011]
The Road Ahead
I would like to begin…
…by saying “Thank You”
A Special Session
For a Special Audience
In a Special Place
On a Critically Important Topic
At a Unique Moment in Economic History
Honored to be With You…
I
Am
A
Futurist!
2011
A Round Trip Futurist
Bring the future
to the present
I like to think
I am a
grounded-in-reality
futurist
I am a “Kitchen Table” Futurist
‘Kitchen Table’ futurists don't predict the future.
They interpret the present in a new way.
They never lose sight of Joe and Jane Sixpack,
confused by the present and worried about their jobs.
Creating A Picture That Can Be Acted Upon
I am a VERY
Empirical Futurist…
5
Ridiculously well traveled;
Amazingly well-
connected;
Pathologically
observant;
Brutally honest.
For the past two years…
I have been on a journey…
In every major geographical market…
I have asked three questions…
In every vertical market…
At every level in the enterprise…
What do you think about the present?
What are you doing to prepare…
What do you think about the future?
I Talked to EVERYBODY…
LaVerne Council
CIO – Johnson & Johnson
Filippo Passerini
CIO – Procter & Gamble
CIOs
CIOs Twila Day
CIO – SYSCO
Jennifer Sepull
CIO – Honda
Barbra Cooper
CIO - Toyota Ramon Baez
CIO – Kimberly Clarke
Hans Nijman
CIO – City of Rotterdam
Teri Takai
CIO – DoD
CIOs
Greek Luminaries
Athens
Regions in Trouble…
16
Petros Theodorakis, ICT Director, DESFA
Paraschos Labousis, IT Manager, Vivartia
Xenophon Liapakis, CIO, Interamerican
Stefanos Mytilineos, Head of Group IT Strategy & Planning, EFG Eurobank
Moderated by: Anastasios Αlefantos, Chairman, itSMF Hellas & IT&T Operations and Data Center
Services Director, Athens International Airport
Asian Übers
Hong Kong
Regions in Ascendancy…
17
Executive Viewpoint: Planning for an Unclear Future
Panellists: Jim Goodnight, CEO, SAS; Alexa Lam, Deputy Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director
of Policy, China and Investment Products, Securities and Futures Commission; Andrew Sheng, Chief
Advisor, China Banking Regulatory Commission; Rogelio Singson, Secretary, Department of Public
Works and Highways, Republic of the Philippines; Thornton May, Futurist, Executive Director and Dean of
the IT Leadership Academy; Mark Jeffries (panel host)
Top CEOs
AWARD WINNING JOURNALISTS
Alan Webber, co-founder Fast Company Magazine
VCs & Authors Geoffrey Moore
Here is what I discovered…
The World has Changed Its Mind What I
Discovered…
20
…about Knowing.
I am a „mental models‟
kind of guy
21
Mental Models
They are important
They can be dysfunctional
They should be monitored & managed
and in many cases upgraded
Mental Models
Matter!
22
Scholars at the World Bank
believe
“World opinion
is the second superpower.”
Examples of Mental Models
Examples of Mental Models
26
Henry Ford
Examples of Mental Models
Examples of Mental Models
On November 30, 1971, five heavily armed men shot out the glass doors of a New York bank and entered the bank firing
automatic weapons, wounding twelve people.
One of the bank tellers ran from the robbers and made it to an upstairs women’s restroom.
One gunman chased her, but he stopped at the door to the
ladies room shouting at her to come out.
When she refused, he went downstairs to help his colleagues finish robbing the bank.
New York Post
Mental Models Can Be Fascinating
Mark Twain’s fence painting
scene in Huckleberry Finn
provides a fine example of
multiple ‘mental models’ being at
work on the same set of data at
the same time.
The fence painting that Tom
Sawyer interpreted as work,
was interpreted
by the other kids as pleasure
once Sawyer redefined the
context of the exercise.
Mental Models Don‟t Always Line Up [i.e., people don‟t „see‟ things the same way]
Examples of Mental Models
31
Barbra & I Will Discuss… In the next
Session…
…the mental models about analytics swirling
around inside her enterprise
35
Somewhere
Sometime
Some Place
Some Why…
Research
Finding During the 1st Decade
of the 3rd Millennium…
35
Hinge of History The Societal Jury has Deliberated…
and returned
with the verdict
The Big Conclusion…
The essence of leadership is knowing…
Isaac Newton's apple tree,
or a descendant thereof.
In front of Trinity College,
to the right of Great Gate
35
What They Told Me…
Organizations are being told
they must develop an analytic competence
Scott Friesen, Sr. Director of Analytics, Customer Insights, Best Buy
Kaiser Fung, author "Numbers Rule Your World," Sirius XM Radio
Bill Hostmann, VP Distinguished Analyst, Gartner
Larry Rosenberger, Analytic Research Fellow and former CEO, FICO
INFORMS Chicago [11 April 2011] “Growing an Analytics Capability” Panel
36
Every day – EVERY DAY –
there is more to know,
more ways to know
and heightened expectations
on the parts of customers, citizens,
investors and regulators
that you will do
something efficacious with what you know.
What They Told Me…
The “For Dummies” series began in 1991 with “DOS for Dummies,” which helped computer neophytes navigate the user-unfriendly program that predated Windows. The series has swelled to more than 1,000 titles and sold more than 150 million copies. John Wiley & Sons, which bought the Dummies brand in 2001, cranks out 200 new Dummies titles a year. At that rate, there may soon be more Dummies books out there than dummies to read them.
The Explosion of Information
There is a disconnect
between our ability to create,
collect
and store data
&
our capability
to thoroughly process
and exploit it.
Macro Observation
A Significant Area of
Executive Angst…
Dr. Kendra Moore, Program Manager Information Exploitation Office “Patterns, Patterns, Everywhere…”
DARPATech 2007 [August 9, 2007]
“There will be
an incomprehensible,
mind-explodingly massive expansion
in the amount of information
floating around.”
What will this mean to YOU
and Your business?
New Know Reality
Every molecule on this planet Will be IP addressable….
The Cumulative Impact of This….
In 15 years…
Mark Hurd Gartner Symposium ITEXPO 2009
New Know
In the next four years,
there will be twice
as much data
as we have
on the planet today.
This is
not a „Bug‟
42
This is a feature!
There is nothing we cannot know…
43
35
unaugmented human
cognition
[the old know]
is no longer sufficient.
Hinge of History Society Has Changed Its Mind
Medical Analog
The New Know, 1.
General Findings
Society is changing mental models
regarding analytics.
Data is being created at an accelerated pace-
faster than many organizations can make sense of it.
Stakeholders expect you to know…
Stakeholders become VERY frustrated
when you/they do not know.
Ahead-of-the-curve enterprises are beginning to
differentiate themselves on the basis of “how they decide to decide.”
Broadly Held Mental Models
Regarding Analytics
For many years the seaport towns of British America
had not needed fortifications,
because they were secure behind the wooden walls of the Royal Navy.
Sometimes, Changing External Circumstance
Mandate Mental Model Change Observation
The World has changed
Mental Models The Contemporary Zeitgeist
There is an emerging sense…
in the back of many minds…
that decision-making
in many enterprises…
while not quite broken,
is nevertheless eminently improvable.
Mental Models The Contemporary Zeitgeist
The “is”
of decision
making today
The “ought”
of decision
making tomorrow
Decision Archaeology
Many processes
were created at a
time when
information was
scarce;
communication
was expensive
and unreliable;
and operational
knowledge,
education and
critical problem
solving skills were
not evenly
distributed across
the employee base
Digging into when, how & why existing
decision-making processes inside an organization
came into being
As such, many decision-making mechanisms
are out of sync with the current environment.
Decision Archaeology
Most Organizations Were Not Designed
for the World They Exist in Today
As such, many decision-making mechanisms
are out of sync with the current environment.
“We Are Going to Need A Bigger Boat!”
Is Your Organization Ready For The Age of Big Information?
When the Environment Changes…
Paul Otellini, CEO at Intel was recently asked
by Charlie Rose:
“What is going to be obsolete next?
The New Know
Otellini responded:
“Ignorance.”
In the Future… The New Know
You will be expected
to know
Known by the Mistakes We Make
The Week [18 June 2010], 19.
The imperfect game: Baseball‟s life lessons
A bad call by James Joyce,
a veteran major league baseball umpire,
cost Detroit Tigers pitcher
Armando Galarraga a perfect game.
“Unless he figures out how to
plug the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico,
Jim Joyce has likely written
the first paragraph of his obituary,”
said Brian Dickerson in the Detroit Free Press.
Joyce, a veteran major league baseball umpire,
last week mistakenly called a runner safe
on a close play at first base on what should have been
the final out, thereby costing Detroit Tigers hurler
Armando Galarraga a perfect game.
A New Attitude Toward
Knowing
The Perfect Game that Wasn‟t
The Week [18 June 2010], 19.
Over 135 seasons and tens of thousands
of major league games,
only 20 times has a pitcher
retired 27 straight batters
without a walk, a hit, or an error.
Joyce’s blown call
denying Galarraga that 27th out,
therefore, caused a national uproar.
A New Attitude
Toward Facts
Augmented Judgment
http://sports.yahoo.com/soccer/news?slug=ap-wcup-videotechnology&print=1
Bad calls prompt FIFA to study high-tech ref help
By GRAHAM DUNBAR, AP Sports Writer
A New Attitude
Toward Facts
59
Every
Organization
in this room…
…is a doing something AMAZING With Analytics
60
NO
Organization
in this room…
…is realizing the full value of Analytics
Ascending Levels of Analytical Capability New Knows
Why is this happening?
What if these trends continue?
What will happen next?
What’s the best that can happen?
What happened?
How many, how often, where?
Where exactly is the problem?
What actions are needed?
Levels
2-3
Levels
4-5
62
Über
Finding
Analytical costs have dropped to the point where it is now affordable to perform the full breadth
of analytics on each key process in the enterprise
63
Next
Now
We find ourselves at a major inflection point;
hinge of history
Here‟s What They Told Me
As I Was Researching the New Know
5 Major Knowledge Sets Emerged DNA of Next Generation
Leadership
Self-Knowledge
Other Knowledge [Empathy]
Environmental Knowledge [Sensemaking]
Movement Knowledge [Vision – where are we going]
Value Knowledge [Innovation -where is there money to be
made/mission value to be delivered]
Did people living in “The Middle Ages”
KNOW They Were Living in the Middle Ages?
Era
Awareness
Era
Awareness
Did people living in “The Renaissance”
KNOW They Were Living in “The Renaissance?
The Future is Bright because…
There is NOTHING the human imagination
linked with the power of analytics
cannot accomplish.
68
However
Measured… There is a marked separation…
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