Thornton

May

thorntonamay@aol.com

A01

AUTO INDUSTRY LEADERSHIP FORUM

High-Value Analytics for the Entire Enterprise [6 May 2011]

The Road Ahead

I would like to begin…

…by saying “Thank You”

A Special Session

For a Special Audience

In a Special Place

On a Critically Important Topic

At a Unique Moment in Economic History

Honored to be With You…

I

Am

A

Futurist!

2011

A Round Trip Futurist

Bring the future

to the present

I like to think

I am a

grounded-in-reality

futurist

I am a “Kitchen Table” Futurist

‘Kitchen Table’ futurists don't predict the future.

They interpret the present in a new way.

They never lose sight of Joe and Jane Sixpack,

confused by the present and worried about their jobs.

Creating A Picture That Can Be Acted Upon

I am a VERY

Empirical Futurist…

5

Ridiculously well traveled;

Amazingly well-

connected;

Pathologically

observant;

Brutally honest.

For the past two years…

I have been on a journey…

In every major geographical market…

I have asked three questions…

In every vertical market…

At every level in the enterprise…

What do you think about the present?

What are you doing to prepare…

What do you think about the future?

I Talked to EVERYBODY…

LaVerne Council

CIO – Johnson & Johnson

Filippo Passerini

CIO – Procter & Gamble

CIOs

CIOs Twila Day

CIO – SYSCO

Jennifer Sepull

CIO – Honda

Barbra Cooper

CIO - Toyota Ramon Baez

CIO – Kimberly Clarke

Hans Nijman

CIO – City of Rotterdam

Teri Takai

CIO – DoD

CIOs

Greek Luminaries

Athens

Regions in Trouble…

16

Petros Theodorakis, ICT Director, DESFA

Paraschos Labousis, IT Manager, Vivartia

Xenophon Liapakis, CIO, Interamerican

Stefanos Mytilineos, Head of Group IT Strategy & Planning, EFG Eurobank

Moderated by: Anastasios Αlefantos, Chairman, itSMF Hellas & IT&T Operations and Data Center

Services Director, Athens International Airport

Asian Übers

Hong Kong

Regions in Ascendancy…

17

Executive Viewpoint: Planning for an Unclear Future

Panellists: Jim Goodnight, CEO, SAS; Alexa Lam, Deputy Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director

of Policy, China and Investment Products, Securities and Futures Commission; Andrew Sheng, Chief

Advisor, China Banking Regulatory Commission; Rogelio Singson, Secretary, Department of Public

Works and Highways, Republic of the Philippines; Thornton May, Futurist, Executive Director and Dean of

the IT Leadership Academy; Mark Jeffries (panel host)

Top CEOs

AWARD WINNING JOURNALISTS

Alan Webber, co-founder Fast Company Magazine

VCs & Authors Geoffrey Moore

Here is what I discovered…

The World has Changed Its Mind What I

Discovered…

20

…about Knowing.

I am a „mental models‟

kind of guy

21

Mental Models

They are important

They can be dysfunctional

They should be monitored & managed

and in many cases upgraded

Mental Models

Matter!

22

Scholars at the World Bank

believe

“World opinion

is the second superpower.”

Examples of Mental Models

Examples of Mental Models

26

Henry Ford

Examples of Mental Models

Examples of Mental Models

On November 30, 1971, five heavily armed men shot out the glass doors of a New York bank and entered the bank firing

automatic weapons, wounding twelve people.

One of the bank tellers ran from the robbers and made it to an upstairs women’s restroom.

One gunman chased her, but he stopped at the door to the

ladies room shouting at her to come out.

When she refused, he went downstairs to help his colleagues finish robbing the bank.

New York Post

Mental Models Can Be Fascinating

Mark Twain’s fence painting

scene in Huckleberry Finn

provides a fine example of

multiple ‘mental models’ being at

work on the same set of data at

the same time.

The fence painting that Tom

Sawyer interpreted as work,

was interpreted

by the other kids as pleasure

once Sawyer redefined the

context of the exercise.

Mental Models Don‟t Always Line Up [i.e., people don‟t „see‟ things the same way]

Examples of Mental Models

31

Barbra & I Will Discuss… In the next

Session…

…the mental models about analytics swirling

around inside her enterprise

35

Somewhere

Sometime

Some Place

Some Why…

Research

Finding During the 1st Decade

of the 3rd Millennium…

35

Hinge of History The Societal Jury has Deliberated…

and returned

with the verdict

The Big Conclusion…

The essence of leadership is knowing…

Isaac Newton's apple tree,

or a descendant thereof.

In front of Trinity College,

to the right of Great Gate

35

What They Told Me…

Organizations are being told

they must develop an analytic competence

Scott Friesen, Sr. Director of Analytics, Customer Insights, Best Buy

Kaiser Fung, author "Numbers Rule Your World," Sirius XM Radio

Bill Hostmann, VP Distinguished Analyst, Gartner

Larry Rosenberger, Analytic Research Fellow and former CEO, FICO

INFORMS Chicago [11 April 2011] “Growing an Analytics Capability” Panel

36

Every day – EVERY DAY –

there is more to know,

more ways to know

and heightened expectations

on the parts of customers, citizens,

investors and regulators

that you will do

something efficacious with what you know.

What They Told Me…

The “For Dummies” series began in 1991 with “DOS for Dummies,” which helped computer neophytes navigate the user-unfriendly program that predated Windows. The series has swelled to more than 1,000 titles and sold more than 150 million copies. John Wiley & Sons, which bought the Dummies brand in 2001, cranks out 200 new Dummies titles a year. At that rate, there may soon be more Dummies books out there than dummies to read them.

The Explosion of Information

There is a disconnect

between our ability to create,

collect

and store data

&

our capability

to thoroughly process

and exploit it.

Macro Observation

A Significant Area of

Executive Angst…

Dr. Kendra Moore, Program Manager Information Exploitation Office “Patterns, Patterns, Everywhere…”

DARPATech 2007 [August 9, 2007]

“There will be

an incomprehensible,

mind-explodingly massive expansion

in the amount of information

floating around.”

What will this mean to YOU

and Your business?

New Know Reality

Every molecule on this planet Will be IP addressable….

The Cumulative Impact of This….

In 15 years…

Mark Hurd Gartner Symposium ITEXPO 2009

New Know

In the next four years,

there will be twice

as much data

as we have

on the planet today.

This is

not a „Bug‟

42

This is a feature!

There is nothing we cannot know…

43

35

unaugmented human

cognition

[the old know]

is no longer sufficient.

Hinge of History Society Has Changed Its Mind

Medical Analog

The New Know, 1.

General Findings

Society is changing mental models

regarding analytics.

Data is being created at an accelerated pace-

faster than many organizations can make sense of it.

Stakeholders expect you to know…

Stakeholders become VERY frustrated

when you/they do not know.

Ahead-of-the-curve enterprises are beginning to

differentiate themselves on the basis of “how they decide to decide.”

Broadly Held Mental Models

Regarding Analytics

For many years the seaport towns of British America

had not needed fortifications,

because they were secure behind the wooden walls of the Royal Navy.

Sometimes, Changing External Circumstance

Mandate Mental Model Change Observation

The World has changed

Mental Models The Contemporary Zeitgeist

There is an emerging sense…

in the back of many minds…

that decision-making

in many enterprises…

while not quite broken,

is nevertheless eminently improvable.

Mental Models The Contemporary Zeitgeist

The “is”

of decision

making today

The “ought”

of decision

making tomorrow

Decision Archaeology

Many processes

were created at a

time when

information was

scarce;

communication

was expensive

and unreliable;

and operational

knowledge,

education and

critical problem

solving skills were

not evenly

distributed across

the employee base

Digging into when, how & why existing

decision-making processes inside an organization

came into being

As such, many decision-making mechanisms

are out of sync with the current environment.

Decision Archaeology

Most Organizations Were Not Designed

for the World They Exist in Today

As such, many decision-making mechanisms

are out of sync with the current environment.

“We Are Going to Need A Bigger Boat!”

Is Your Organization Ready For The Age of Big Information?

When the Environment Changes…

Paul Otellini, CEO at Intel was recently asked

by Charlie Rose:

“What is going to be obsolete next?

The New Know

Otellini responded:

“Ignorance.”

In the Future… The New Know

You will be expected

to know

Known by the Mistakes We Make

The Week [18 June 2010], 19.

The imperfect game: Baseball‟s life lessons

A bad call by James Joyce,

a veteran major league baseball umpire,

cost Detroit Tigers pitcher

Armando Galarraga a perfect game.

“Unless he figures out how to

plug the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico,

Jim Joyce has likely written

the first paragraph of his obituary,”

said Brian Dickerson in the Detroit Free Press.

Joyce, a veteran major league baseball umpire,

last week mistakenly called a runner safe

on a close play at first base on what should have been

the final out, thereby costing Detroit Tigers hurler

Armando Galarraga a perfect game.

A New Attitude Toward

Knowing

The Perfect Game that Wasn‟t

The Week [18 June 2010], 19.

Over 135 seasons and tens of thousands

of major league games,

only 20 times has a pitcher

retired 27 straight batters

without a walk, a hit, or an error.

Joyce’s blown call

denying Galarraga that 27th out,

therefore, caused a national uproar.

A New Attitude

Toward Facts

Augmented Judgment

http://sports.yahoo.com/soccer/news?slug=ap-wcup-videotechnology&print=1

Bad calls prompt FIFA to study high-tech ref help

By GRAHAM DUNBAR, AP Sports Writer

A New Attitude

Toward Facts

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Every

Organization

in this room…

…is a doing something AMAZING With Analytics

60

NO

Organization

in this room…

…is realizing the full value of Analytics

Ascending Levels of Analytical Capability New Knows

Why is this happening?

What if these trends continue?

What will happen next?

What’s the best that can happen?

What happened?

How many, how often, where?

Where exactly is the problem?

What actions are needed?

Levels

2-3

Levels

4-5

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Über

Finding

Analytical costs have dropped to the point where it is now affordable to perform the full breadth

of analytics on each key process in the enterprise

63

Next

Now

We find ourselves at a major inflection point;

hinge of history

Here‟s What They Told Me

As I Was Researching the New Know

5 Major Knowledge Sets Emerged DNA of Next Generation

Leadership

Self-Knowledge

Other Knowledge [Empathy]

Environmental Knowledge [Sensemaking]

Movement Knowledge [Vision – where are we going]

Value Knowledge [Innovation -where is there money to be

made/mission value to be delivered]

Did people living in “The Middle Ages”

KNOW They Were Living in the Middle Ages?

Era

Awareness

Era

Awareness

Did people living in “The Renaissance”

KNOW They Were Living in “The Renaissance?

The Future is Bright because…

There is NOTHING the human imagination

linked with the power of analytics

cannot accomplish.

68

However

Measured… There is a marked separation…