August 17, 2006 ICF Consulting RGGI Preliminary Electricity Sector Modeling Results Phase III RGGI...

August 17, 2006

ICF Consulting

RGGI Preliminary

Electricity Sector Modeling ResultsPhase III RGGI Reference and Package

Scenario

2

Updates to Reference and Package Cases

The following changes were made to the Phase III Reference Case relative to the September 2005 Reference Case:

• Oil and gas prices updated to most recent EEA projection

• Electric peak and demand updated to most recent projections from NYISO, ISO-NE and PJM

• Calibrated NH generation mix through 2009

• 600 MW IGCC with 50% carbon capture capability added in upstate NY in 2018

The following changes were made to the Phase III Package Case relative to the September 2005 Package Case:

• Updated offset supply curves

• Implemented Revised offset triggers from MOU

3

Package Scenario

The Package Scenario presented here is based off of the Phase III RGGI Reference Case and includes the following:

• CO2 Policy – Phased-in cap to 2018 (see table below)

• Offsets – Updated supply curves with limits as defined in MOU (table below assumes 3.3% offset limit)

• Efficiency Measures – Options as defined by ACEEE limited by Program Cost Budget Equivalent to 1.0-times Current Program Expenditures

Reference Case, Phase

III, 9 state (MMTons)

Policy GuideRGGI Cap (MMTons)

Offset Limit (%)

Offset Limit (MMTons)

2006 121.5 2006 levels (early action) 121.5 3.3% 4.012007 121.6 2006 levels (early action) 121.5 3.3% 4.012008 121.8 2006 levels (early action) 121.5 3.3% 4.012009 121.9 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012010 122.6 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012011 123.4 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012012 124.1 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012013 125.8 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012014 127.4 2006 levels 121.5 3.3% 4.012015 129.1 2.5% Below 2006 Levels 118.5 3.3% 3.912016 131.1 5.0% Below 2006 Levels 115.4 3.3% 3.812017 133.0 7.5% Below 2006 Levels 112.4 3.3% 3.712018 135.0 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612019 136.1 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612020 137.1 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612021 138.2 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612022 139.8 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612023 141.4 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.612024 143.0 10% Below 2006 levels 109.4 3.3% 3.61

RGGI Package Scenario

5

RGGI Cumulative Capacity Additions by 2024

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Reference Case Package Case

GW

Other Renewables

Wind

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

6

RGGI Generation Mix in 2024

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

Reference Case Package Case

TW

h

Net Imports

OtherRenewablesWind

Other

Oil/Gas

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

7

RGGI 9-State CO2 Emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024

Mill

ion

Ton

s

Reference Case

Package Case With Offsets

Package Case Cap

8

CO2 Allowance Prices – Package Case

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024

$/T

on

9

RGGI Average Annual Energy Prices

NOTE: Energy prices include annualized capacity prices.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024

$/M

Wh

Reference Case

Package Case

10

Change in RGGI Average Annual Energy Prices

NOTE: Energy prices include annualized capacity prices.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024

Cha

nge

in E

nerg

y P

rice

Package Case

11

RGGI Net Imports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024

TW

h

Reference Case

Package Case

12

Cumulative CO2 Reductions by 2015 and 2021RGGI and Eastern Interconnect/Canada

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

RGGI EI & Canada RGGI EI & Canada

Mill

ion

Ton

s

Offsets

On SystemReductions

2015 2021