AT THE CONFLUENCE OF SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, SPACE, AND … · AT THE CONFLUENCE OF SCIENCE,...

AT THE CONFLUENCE OF

SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, SPACE,

AND HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING

Burke Fort, Associate Director for Business Operations

GoPortugal | UT-Austin and Portugal Building the Future16 February 2018 | University of Porto

The University of Texas at Austin

Cockrell Schoolof Engineering

CSR

JacksonSchool of

Geosciences

College of Natural Sciences

OtherASE/EM

• Engineering– Aerospace– HP Computer– Engineering

Mechanics• Geosciences

– Geology– Geodesy– Oceans– Glaciology– Disaster Analytics UT System

• Founded in 1981• Budget: $10 million/yr• Founding Director: Dr.

Byron D. Tapley

• 83 Employees– 8 Faculty Members– 40 Research Staff– 10 Support Staff– 25 Graduate Students

PROF. SRINIVAS BETTADPURDIRECTOR, UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS CENTER FOR SPACE RESEARCH

Projects• GRACE Mission• GRACE Follow-On

Mission

• McDonald Geodetic Observatory

• mm-Metrology and the Terrestrial Reference Frame

• TOPEX/Poseidon Mission

Research Interests• Earth system dynamics• Precision orbits

• Global space geodesy• Regional applications of

global methods

• Use of new technologies: laser interferometry, cold-atom technologies, precise clocks, drag-free flight

UT CSR Research Areas• Celestial Mechanics and Astrodynamics

• Data Exploration: Models, Algorithms and Error Analysis

• Space Geodesy and the Global Gravity Field

• Mission & Data Architecture, Design and Simulation

• Radionavigation

• Remote Sensing

• Satellite Technology

• Scientific Interpretation and Analysis

UT CSR and Atlantic Interactions ThemesüSpace systems and applications

üAtmospheric science

üOcean science

üClimate change and energy systems

üData systems

UT CSR Toolkit• Gravity, from Space

• Lasers, to/from/in Space

• Disaster Analytics, from Space

• Radar, from Space

• STEM Education, employing Space

Science• High resolution gravity field

mapping• Mean & time variable

GRACE MISSIONNASA/DLR

Mission• Launched: March 17, 2002• Present Altitude: 340 km • Inclination: 89 degrees• Separation Distance: ~220 km• Lifetime: 5 years (in 16th year)

Amazing GRACE

• Ocean bottom pressure

• Ocean currents

• Groundwater

Amazing GRACE

• Drought monitor

• Ice sheet mass loss

• Post-seismic changes

GRACE Follow-On Mission

To Launch Late April 2018

McDonald Geodetic Observatory/GGOS

Plate Tectonics (Continental Drift)

Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat)

• ICESat measures elevation (elevation x area = volume); Laser altimeter

• GRACE measures gravity (mass)

• Both are needed to:– Validate ice mass loss– Examine other changes associated with

changes in surface density

• Applications:– Snowfall variability– Snow/ice compaction– Glacier trends– Global groundwater trends– Vegetation

Mid-American Geospatial Information Center (MAGIC)

• Direct Broadcast Receiving Station

• Emergency Response

• Regional Water Resources

Direct Broadcast Receiving Station

2.4-meter X-Band4.5-meter X-Band1.5-meter S/L-Band

Emergency Response - PLANNING

Wednesday, Sept. 10, 4 AM

Tuesday, Sept. 9, 4 AM

Thursday, Sept. 11, 4 AM

Thur

sday

, Sep

t. 11

, 4 P

M

Frid

ay, S

ept.

12, 4

AM

Evacuating Area

Sheltering CommunityStaging Area

Emergency Response - PLANNING

Emergency Response - DURING

• Texas Task Force 1

• Texas Division of Emergency Management

• Texas Commission on Environmental Quality• Texas Railroad Commission

• Texas Department of Transportation

• Texas Military Department• Texas Department of Public Safety

• Texas A&M Forest Service

• Texas Public Utility Commission

• Texas General Land Office

• Texas Department of Criminal Justice

• Texas Parks & Wildlife Department• Federal Emergency Management Agency

• NOAA - National Weather Service

• U.S. Geological Survey• U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

• U.S. Department of Agriculture

• American Red Cross

Emergency Response - RECOVERY

Radar: InSAR Acquisition Geometry

InSAR Image of Landers (CA) Earthquake

• The image covers a 90-by-110 km area from April 24 to August 7, 1992.

• One color cycle represents 28 mm of deformation in LOS direction.

• Credit: [Massonnet et al., 1993]

What’s Next for CSR?• Low-latency science to mitigate local impacts:

HURRICANES: Path, Coastal, Inland

What’s Next for CSR?• Low-latency science to mitigate local impacts:

DROUGHT and WILDFIRES

What’s Next for CSR?• Science sensor miniaturization

• Numerical simulations

• Future technologies– Cold-atom techniques for geodesy

– Drag-free flight

– Laser interferometry

Connect with UT CSRhttps://www.csr.utexas.edu

@UTAustin.CSR

@UTCSR

BURKE FORTAssociate Director for Business Operations+01 512 232 7596fort@csr.utexas.edu

ASSIGNMENTProvide decision-makers with:

• Statement of capabilities and prospective impacts of a small-satellite (<500kg payload) spaceport

• Within Região Autónoma dos Açores

• Recommended, rank-ordered set of up to 3 feasible sites (if any)

• Strategies for moving forward within prescribed assumptions, limits, and constraints

CONCLUSIONSA small-sat spaceport located in Açores is:

• Feasible within the constraints and risks stated, if a site-responsive Concept of Operations is adopted

• Malbusca/Santa Maria Island site most suitable

• Enhancements:

• PRELIMINARY assessment; a thorough assessment is essential

• <150kg payload market• 1-3 stable launch

providers

• Local additive manufacturing• Expanded local workforce

training resources

FEASIBILITY: Factors• Launch facility framework:

• Must ensure environmental and community safety• Public-private partnership endeavor

• Global demand and supply forecasts for small-sat launch services

• Prospective economic and technological leveraging potentials

• Spaceport facility baseline with Açores-unique market differentiators

• Projected market capture

FEASIBILITY: Demand Conditions

Space-Based Activities

• $350Bn to $1.1Tn by 2040

• Driven by commercial sector

– Consumer broadband/TV

– Functional use of space data

– Ground equipment

• Collateral growth:

– Employment

– Technology development

– Science

– Education

Small-Sat Launch Services

• <50kg market 2017-2023:

– 2,400 small-sats

– 70% commercial; 20% academic

– 3-6kg: 60-90% of market

• Launch mode trends

– Near-term: Rideshare

– Out-years: Dedicated

FEASIBILITY: Supply ConditionsRideshare Launch Services

– Expensive• Large-sat launch complexity• Less per sat if multiple units

– Inconvenient, unpredictable

– Orbit options limited by main payload orbit

– 2017: Many technically-proven providers; thousands of small-sats manifested/announced

Dedicated Launch Services

– Less expensive• Small-sat launch simplicity roughly

offsets absence of multiple units

– More convenient, predictable

– Small-sat orbit needs are fully accommodated

– 2017-18: One Two technically- “proven” providers; few small-sats manifested/announced

FEASIBILITY: Site SuitabilityFour Prospective Sites

1. Flores Island Site 1: Fajã Lopo Vaz/Lajes (39.376446, -31.193856)

FEASIBILITY: Site SuitabilityFour Prospective Sites

1. Flores Island Site 1: Fajã Lopo Vaz/Lajes (39.376446, -31.193856)

2. Flores Island Site 2: Ponta Delgada (39.519449, -31.231469)

FEASIBILITY: Site SuitabilityFour Prospective Sites

1. Flores Island Site 1: Fajã Lopo Vaz/Lajes (39.376446, -31.193856)

2. Flores Island Site 2: Ponta Delgada (39.519449, -31.231469)

3. Santa Maria Island Site 1: LORAN Station (37.011653, -25.055825)

FEASIBILITY: Site SuitabilityFour Prospective Sites

1. Flores Island Site 1: Fajã Lopo Vaz/Lajes (39.376446, -31.193856)

2. Flores Island Site 2: Ponta Delgada (39.519449, -31.231469)

3. Santa Maria Island Site 1: LORAN Station (37.011653, -25.055825)

4. Santa Maria Island Site 2: Malbusca (36.937499, -25.076171)

FEASIBILITY: Site Suitability

Launch Corridor

Minimum Orbital Inclination Angle

Winds

Severe Weather

Airspace Congestion

Shipping Lanes

Regional Criteria

Port Access

Air Access

Energy Availability

Workforce

Emergency Services

Housing Capacity

Construction/Maintenance

Road Access

Existing Infrastructure

Site Safety Zone

Environmental Impact

Area Availability

Launch & Site Criteria

FEASIBILITY: Most Suitable SiteSanta Maria Island Site 2: Malbusca (36.937499, -25.076171)

FEASIBILITY: Market Capture• Existing and proposed small-sat launch facility sites• SWOT analysis• Strategies for moving forward

FEASIBILITY: Market CaptureFEASIBILITY: Market Capture

FEASIBILITY: SWOTStrengths

• Early market entry

• Wide range of orbits and other customer requirements can be accommodated

• Public sector collaboration

• Open to ANY small-sat payload customer

• Superb fiber connectivity

Opportunities

• Time to plan while dedicated small-sat launchers evolve

• Synced with robust national economy growth trends

• Capable of incorporating on-site value-added customer amenities

• Job creation and skillset growth potential

FEASIBILITY: SWOTWeaknesses

• Local skillset depth

• Transportation & shipping options for customers; insurance costs

• Limited number of launch providers accommodated

• Multi-entity sponsor strategy adds some speculative risk

• If launches only, no disruptive market differentiators

Threats

• Few stable launch providers exist

• Feasibility tied to timely securing a stable launch provider

• Planned spaceports completed first add competitive pressure

• Potential for failure of:

– Launch provider companies

– Anticipated launch vehicle performance

STRATEGIES: Moving Forward 1. Aggressively seek partnerships with1-3 stable launch

providers

2. Mitigate shipping & insurance cost weaknesses by enabling local manufacturing/assembly of payloads & rockets, including additive manufacturing capabilities (a market differentiator)

3. Deepen the Azorean workforce skillset by expanding local technical training & higher education assets

4. Aggressively pursue development of a comprehensive commercial space launch regulatory environment

FEASIBILITY: ROM Cost• Significant unknowns inhibit budget estimation at this time

• Lack of an identified stable small-sat launch provider/tenant• Unique design, business structure, Concept of Operations• Impacts of any incorporated multi-use and collocation elements

• Ripple effect through related supply chains

• Estimates are limited to assessment of published data about comparable facilities:• Purpose-built, single-provider (UK): $89.0 million (2017 USD)• Purpose-built, single-provider (US): $103.6 million (2017 USD)• Open-built, multi-provider (US): $285.0 million (2017 USD)

SUMMARY

• Technically feasible; significant market opportunity

• Environmental, public safety, and economic risks can be

reasonably managed with effective planning

• Potential for significant returns for Portugal

• All 4 candidate sites are capable; Malbusca most suitable

• If decision is to proceed, recommended priorities:

1. Must identify 1-3 stable launch provider partners/tenants

2. To enhance, incorporate compelling market differentiators