Assessing Forest Species tolerance and associated risk for ... · Assessing Forest Species...

Assessing Forest Species tolerance and associated risk for growth and survival in

arboreta along Atlantic climate gradient

António H. Correira1*; Christophe Orazio2; M. Helena Almeida1 ; et al.

1.Centro de Estudos Florestais, ISA, Universidade de Lisboa

2.EFI Planted Forests Facility / IEFC

* ahcorreia@isa.ulisboa.pt

REINFFORCE main aimBuild a research tool to meet the climate

change challenges.

❖Better knowledge of tree species

performance response to future climate

scenarios, improving uncertainty;

❖Test effectiveness of adaptive forest

management;

❖Accompanying Scientific cooperation on

climate change adaptation

REINFFORCE infrastructureTake advantage of the Atlantic network of IEFC and

EFIATLANTIC partners ->compare sites from

longitudes 37 to 57º, under a strongly oceanic

influenced climate

❖12 partner Institutions

❖Arboreta network (38 sites),

❖Demonstration site network (41sites),

❖Common protocols (growth

measurements, phenology, health, etc.).

The arboreta networkAim: expose the same genetic material produced in the same

conditions to various climate/soil contexts.

❖Each of the 38 arboretum is about 2 hectares with 2000

trees;

❖35 species ; 3 provenances/species; 12 trees/ provenance.

❖Arboreta sites represent typical site conditions for managed

forests in each region, with Weather monitoring

❖Sites will be monitored for at least 15 years with

standardized methods.

First results - Survival

• Broadleaf Survival responds to Precipitation Transfer Distance; ConiferSurvival responds to Growing Season Degree Days >5°C (Correia et al, 2018)

Conifer Broadleaf

Estimated Survival

First results - Growth

• Overall growth responds to Annual Dryness Index (Correia et al, 2018)

Estimated Survival

Within-Species variationBLUP for provenance variation from mean estimated Conifer species Survival probability

Thuja plicata

Calocedrus decurrens

Pinus elliotti

Pinus pinea

Risk assessment for Survival (Broadleaf species)

-Under Publication process-

Key messages

❖ A strategical tool for forest adaptation to climate change;

❖key parameters for growth and survival: Transfer Distance for Precipitation, Annual

Dryness Index, Growing Season Degree Days >5⁰C

❖Broadleaf survival at installation (first years) will not present significant loss under

moderate RCP scenario;

❖ Conifer survival will vary accordingly to each Species, yet there is associated risk

even for moderate RCP scenario for mid term projection;

❖ Global risk for growth loss, except for Eucalyptus globulus and gundal.

Building an Interface for knowledge application

In order to facilitate the dissemination of the fitted models and predictions, a mobile

app is being built, focusing on:

❖risk calculation per species

❖Growth and survival estimation under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2080

❖Suggestion of the species presenting best results

❖Species characterisation and silviculture information

Bibliography

❖ Correia, A.H. et al (2018) Early survival and growth plasticity of 33 species planted

in 38 arboreta across Europe Atlantic Area. Forests, 2018, 9(10), 630;

https://doi.org/10.3390/f9100630

❖Orazio, C. et al (2013) Arboretum & Demonstration Site Catalogue – Resource

INFrastructure for monitoring, adapting and protecting European FORests under

Changing climatE. IEFC/EFI-ATLANTIQUE. Bordeaux.

Thank you!

António Henrique Correia - ahcorreia@isa.ulisboa.pt

(REsource INFrastructure for monitoring and adapting european

Atlantic FORest under Changing climatE)

http://reinfforce.iefc.net