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Arkes et al. (1981) Doctors given a case history to read Is it disease A or disease B? Group 1 - told nothing about real diagnosis Group 2 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease A Group 3 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease B Result: probability estimates were higher for - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Arkes et al. (1981)
Doctors given a case history to read
Is it disease A or disease B?
Group 1 - told nothing about real diagnosis
Group 2 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease A
Group 3 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease B
Result: probability estimates were higher for
“correct” diagnosis
So: Hindsight Bias
•Hindsight bias happens when you warn people
to avoid it
•It does not happen when subjects don’t believe
the outcome information
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