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s et al. (1981) ors given a case history to read Is it disease A or disease B? p 1 - told nothing about real diagnosis p 2 - told “correct” diagnosis was dise p 3 - told “correct” diagnosis was dise lt: probability estimates were higher f “correct” diagnosis Hindsight Bias dsight bias happens when you warn peopl void it does not happen when subjects don’t bel outcome information

Arkes et al. (1981) Doctors given a case history to read Is it disease A or disease B?

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Arkes et al. (1981) Doctors given a case history to read Is it disease A or disease B? Group 1 - told nothing about real diagnosis Group 2 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease A Group 3 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease B Result: probability estimates were higher for - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Arkes et al. (1981) Doctors given a case history to read Is it disease A or disease B?

Arkes et al. (1981)

Doctors given a case history to read

Is it disease A or disease B?

Group 1 - told nothing about real diagnosis

Group 2 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease A

Group 3 - told “correct” diagnosis was disease B

Result: probability estimates were higher for

“correct” diagnosis

So: Hindsight Bias

•Hindsight bias happens when you warn people

to avoid it

•It does not happen when subjects don’t believe

the outcome information