Approaches to a VULNERABILITY Assessment

Approaches to aApproaches to aVULNERABILITY AssessmentVULNERABILITY Assessment

Sylvia PrielerSylvia Prieler

May 26, 2004May 26, 2004

Land Use ProjectLand Use Project

IIASAIIASA

Vulnerability approachVulnerability approach

1.1. Define scopeDefine scope

2.2. QualitativeQualitative - - CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKCONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKgeneral; case specific general; case specific

3.3. QuantitativeQuantitative – – a) Determine INDICATORsa) Determine INDICATORsb) Methodologyb) Methodology

4.4. Strategies to reduce vulnerabilityStrategies to reduce vulnerability

Climatic variability - impact on agricultural

production – vulnerability of the people

Where are people most vulnerable to climatic variability and why?

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKCONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Qualitative

PEOPLE’s vulnerability

rural / urban

CLIMATICVARIABILITYa) inter annual variabilityb) extreme events

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

ENVIRONMENTLand availabilitySoil sealing (urbanization)Soil degradation, erosion Water availabilityGroundwater depletionWater pollutionDeforestation

STRESSOR EXPOSURE & Sensitivity

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT& TECHNOLOGYCrop choiceIrrigationInput (fertilizer,…)

ECONOMICGDP/capitarural/urbanAccess to markets

POPULATION STRUCTUREAge distributionEducation

POLICY & INSTITUTIONSInvestment in infrastructureLand tenure

SOCIOECONOMICMacroeconomic impactPolicies (land tenure, irrigation infrastructure)

Key issues Key issues in CONCEPTUAL in CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKFRAMEWORK

Qualitative

People rural/urban

Agric. Prod. variability

WATERECONOMY

LAND

Climate variability

Policy &INSITUTIONS

People - URBANIZATIONPeople - URBANIZATION

Surplus rural laborestimates are 30% or 120-150 mio.

Income disparity between rural and urban areasper capita annual disposable income: factor 2.2 (1994 and 2000)

Qualitative

MIGRATION to urban areas

Population in 2001:Rural: 796 mio. (62%)Urban: 481 mio. (38%)

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rural urban

People - URBANIZATIONPeople - URBANIZATION

Government promotes urbanization WTO membership

Future: increasing urbanization Scenarios: by 2030 at 55 to over 60%

Qualitative

Challenge: loss of cultivated land

good arable land; farmers loose their farmland (estimates at 1.5 mio. every year in last decade)ratio: cultiv. land / rural labor is decreasing

Increasing water demand of urban household

INDICATORSINDICATORS

Proxy indicators for describing agricultural production variability

aridity index; length of growing period; rainfed potential grain production; actual grain production

a) rainfed b) irrigated

Quantitative

INDICATORSINDICATORS

Quantitative

Proxy Indicator VULNERABILITY low ………. …… …. high

PEOPLE urban population share urban…. semi-rural …… rural ECONOMY GDP/capita high ……………………low WATER irrigation irrig. share in cultiv. area high …………………… low water avail. water resources / capita LAND cultivated area

population / cultiv. area rural pop. / cultiv. area rur. labor force / cultiv. area

low …………………….. high

INDICATORS - MethodologyINDICATORS - Methodology

Quantify by ranking across the country Use threshold given by certain ‘sustainability indicators’

cultiv. land / capita (0.4ha/capita)

GIS overlay techniques

formulate relevant questions:LGP < 180 + LGP CV > 5% + irrig.share < 60% + ….Where are these areas?How many people are affected by such conditions?

Quantitative

INDICATORS - MethodologyINDICATORS - Methodology

Total areahyperarid

arid

semiarid

dry subhumid

humid

Agricultural area Population

Quantitative

Distribution of ARIDITY INDEX (average climatic conditions)

Population living in areas classified as Semiarid Environments (0.2<=P/ ET0<0.5)

0.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.2

avg

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Area Population

THANK YOUTHANK YOU