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ANALYSIS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY ANDCHANGE IN UGANDA: A GENDER AND HOUSEHOLD
WELFARE PERSPECTIVE
Madina Guloba
PhD. (Economics) DissertationUniversity of Dar es Salaam
September, 2014
ANALYSIS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY ANDCHANGE IN UGANDA: A GENDER AND HOUSEHOLD
WELFARE PERSPECTIVE
By
Madina Guloba
A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirement for the Degreeof Doctor of Philosophy (Economics) of the University of Dar es Salaam
University of Dar es SalaamSeptember, 2014
CERTIFICATION
The undersigned certify that he has read and hereby recommend for acceptance by the
University of Dar es Salaam a dissertation entitled: Analysis of adaptation to climate
variability and change in Uganda: A gender and household welfare perspective, in
partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy
(Economics) of the University of Dar es Salaam.
..............................................................
Dr. Razack Lokina
(Principal Supervisor)
Date:...........................................
ii
DECLARATION
AND
COPYRIGHT
I, Madina Guloba, declare that this dissertation is my own original work and that it has
not been presented and will not be presented to any other University for a similar or any
other degree award.
Signature: ...........................................................
This dissertation is copyright material protected under the Berne Convention, the
Copyright Act 1999 and other international and national enactments, in that behalf, on
intellectual property. It may not be reproduced by any means, in full or in part, except
for short extracts in fair dealings, for research or private study, critical scholarly review
or discourse with an acknowledgement, without the written permission of the Directorate
of Postgraduate Studies, on behalf of both the author and the University of Dar es
Salaam.
iii
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
I have been fortunate to complete my PhD at the University of Dar es Salaam. The
friendly and inspiring environment at the Department of Economics has greatly assisted
my work. The work in progress benefited enormously from the entire Group E of the
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) Biannual conferences, 2012. I
especially thank the useful input received from Professor Jane K. Mariara who was my
resource person, and Dr. Precious Zekhali. In addition, I have enjoyed fruitful
discussions at the International Association for Feminist Economists (IAFFE)
conferences held at the University of Barcelona, 2012and Stanford University,
2013where IAFFE funded my attendance. I am grateful for the time spent as a PhD
intern at UNU-WIDER, Helsinki-Finland in 2013. I had interactions with WIDER staff
and got good feedback from the UNU-WIDER internal seminar series.
Most importantly, I am very grateful to the AERC for funding my PhD studies. The
generous funding enabled me to focus solely on my studies and research. I have also
received financial support for this research from the Environment for Development-
Tanzania (EfD-T), University of Dar es Salaam.
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Razack Lokina who
agreed to supervise my dissertation. Throughout my research, he has shown great
professionalism, patience and support. His comments have always been to the point. No
iv
matter how busy, he has always found time for discussions. Our communication through
email has been effective in enabling me to complete work on time away from the
University. This pushed me to work even harder.
This dissertation benefited enormously from comments of Prof. Asmerom Kidane who is
my “invisible supervisor” and Dr. Ronald Chifamba. I thank Dr. Elias Luvanda, the
discussant during the presentation made in the advanced PhD seminar series, for the
useful and insightful input. In addition, I would like to thank all my lecturers of the
Collaborative PhD programme.
I am grateful to the various persons and institutions who helped me access data: The
World Bank and the Uganda Bureau of Statistics for availing me the Uganda National
Panel Survey dataset, Department of Meteorology, Ministry of Water and Environment
especially Peace H for compiling the dataset, William George Omony for his input in
analysing climate change, Commissioner Paul Isabirye, Coordinator- Climate Change
Unit, Geo Information Officers, Charles Kyegonza and Joel Kitutu at the GIS
department, Uganda Bureau of Statistics, Dr Sarah Ssewanyana, Executive Director,
Economic Policy Research Centre, Uganda, Dr. Eria Hisali and Dr. Asumani Guloba for
reading my draft proposal.
I am very lucky to have friends who not only are invaluable as friends but also top
economic researchers in their fields. Thank you Deogratious Macha, Zerayehu Sime
v
Eshete, James Sandy Fomba, Dale Mudenda and Vincent Mboucthung for your advice,
support, comments and proof reading my work. I thank all my classmates at the
University of Dar es Salaam Class of 2010 and those at the Joint Facility for Electives
econometric and environment classes of 2011. I am also grateful for the wonderful
company of colleagues at UDSM/Economics Department/Wooden Block.
I also thank my very close friends. I am also very much obliged to my entire family for
providing such a supportive environment to grow up and just be me. Special thanks go to
by brothers for helping me run my home projects smoothly.
Above all, I thank the Almighty Allah (SW) for having made all this possible.
vi
DEDICATION
To my family
vii
ABSTRACT
The study establishes the extent to which climate change has occurred in Uganda,analyses choices of adaptation strategies to climate change induced shocks and factorsdetermining the choices made at the household level by gender of the decision maker ofthe household, and lastly estimates the impact of adaptation strategies employed tocovariate shocks on household welfare. More specifically, analysis of climate variabilityand change using meteorological data from 13 weather stations across Uganda revealsthat Uganda’s climate is varying and changing from the norm. Observations are madefrom the altered rainfall, temperatures, onset and cessation of rainfall patterns, andincreases in occurrences and persistence of climate disasters such as floods and droughts,with negative impacts on the economy and households. Furthermore, utilising micro-level data for a balanced panel of 2,566 original households surveyed in 2005/06 and2009/10, we identify the choices of adaptation strategies employed in response toclimate disasters for both male and female headed households and in addition use astandard pooled Multinomial Logit model (MNL) to examine heterogeneity in factorsinfluencing these choices in both households. Findings show that female headedhouseholds reduce consumption through scaling back food intakes and skipping mealswhile male headed households resort to use of savings as immediate adaptationstrategies to drought. However, during floods, female heads increase labour supply andmale heads reduce consumption in both surveys. All households use agricultural relatedtechnology when faced with crop pests’ attacks. Livestock epidemics drive femaleheaded households to expand labour supply and male headed households to rely onsavings through sale of livestock at lower market prices. Generally, agro ecologicalclimate zones in which households live play a key role in various adaptation options toshocks, irrespective of the gender of the household head. Findings point to the need forpolicy to have separate long term adaptation mechanisms that are gender sensitive.Lastly, we examine heterogeneity in impacts of adaptation strategies to covariate shockson household welfare using Pooled OLS regression techniques and IV-2SLS method toaddress endogeneity in regressors. We use consumption expenditure per adult equivalentto proxy for household welfare. Findings show that not all adaptation techniquesemployed by households for a given climate shock have positive impacts on welfare.Specifically, adaptation strategies employed during drought and floods have a negativeimpact on welfare, while those employed during livestock epidemics impact positivelyon welfare. Such findings suggest that the choices of adaptation strategies arebehavioural, highly risky and unsustainable leading to further vulnerability of manyhouseholds especially the poor and those involved in agriculture.
viii
TABLE CONTENTS
Certification ..................................................................................................................i
Declaration and Copyright .................................................................................................ii
Acknowledgemnt ..............................................................................................................iii
Dedication ................................................................................................................vi
Abstract ...............................................................................................................vii
Table of Contents ............................................................................................................viii
List of Tables...................................................................................................................xii
List of Figures.................................................................................................................xvi
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................1
1.1 Background to the study.........................................................................................1
1.2 Statement of the problem .......................................................................................5
1.3 Objectives of the study...........................................................................................6
1.4 Significance of the study ........................................................................................8
1.5 Scope .................................................................................................................9
1.6 Outline of the dissertation ....................................................................................10
CHAPTER TWO: GENDER, WELFARE AND CLIMATE IN UGANDA:
TRENDS AND POLICY REVIEW ............................................11
2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................11
2.2 Overview of Uganda’s socio-economic status and climate ................................12
2.2.1 Uganda’s socio-economic status .........................................................................12
ix
2.2.2 Uganda’s climate, definitions and drivers ...........................................................14
2.2.2.1 Overview of Uganda’s climate............................................................................14
2.2.2.2 Understanding climate definitions and drivers....................................................15
2.2.2.3 Characterising climate extremes in Uganda........................................................22
2.3 A review of relevant legislation and policies ......................................................25
2.3.1 Legislation review ..............................................................................................25
2.3.1.1 The Constitution of the Republic of Uganda, 1995 ............................................25
2.3.1.2 The National Environment Statute, 1995............................................................27
2.3.1.3 The National Forestry and Tree Planting Act, 2003 ...........................................29
2.3.1.4 The National Environment Regulations Statutory Instrument 153 – 6...............30
2.3.1.5 Guidelines for Wetlands Edge Gardening, 2005.................................................31
2.3.1.6 Other relevant legislations...................................................................................31
2.3.2 Policy review.......................................................................................................32
2.3.2.1 The Energy Policy, 2002 .....................................................................................33
2.3.2.2 The Renewable Energy Policy for Uganda, 2007 ...............................................34
2.3.2.3 The Uganda Land Policy, 2011...........................................................................36
2.3.2.4 The Uganda Forest Policy, 2001 .........................................................................37
2.3.2.5 National Policy for the Conservation and Management of Wetland
Resources, 2009 .................................................................................................38
2.3.2.6 The National Policy for Disaster Preparedness and Management, 2010 ............39
2.3.2.7 The Mineral Policy of Uganda, 2002 ..................................................................40
2.3.2.8 The Uganda Gender Policy, 2007 .......................................................................42
x
2.3.3 Action plan documents........................................................................................43
2.3.3.1 National Development Plan 2010/11 – 2014/15, 2010 .......................................43
2.3.3.2 Uganda National Adaptation Programmes of Action, 2007 ...............................45
2.3.3.3 Plan for Modernization of Agriculture................................................................46
2.4 Conclusion..........................................................................................................47
CHAPTER THREE: ANALYSIS OFCLIMATE VARIABILITY AND
CHANGE IN UGANDA ............................................................49
3.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................49
3.2 Related literature on climate variability and change .............................................50
3.3 Methodology .........................................................................................................57
3.4 Data sources and transformation ...........................................................................58
3.5 Results and discussion...........................................................................................62
3.5 Conclusion.............................................................................................................79
CHAPTER FOUR: ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN UGANDA:
A GENDER PERSPECTIVE ......................................................81
4.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................81
4.2 Previous research on gender and adaptation to climate change ............................83
4.3 Methodology .........................................................................................................94
4.3.1 The model..............................................................................................................95
4.3.2 Variable description ..............................................................................................97
4.3.2 Hypotheses tested................................................................................................100
4.4 Data transformation and sources .........................................................................103
xi
4.5 Results and discussion.........................................................................................105
4.5.1 Descriptive analysis.............................................................................................105
4.5.2 Chi square test between gender of household head and adaptation choices .......107
4.5.3 Types and frequency of climate shocks reported by households ........................108
4.5.4 Gender of household head and choice of coping mechanisms............................110
4.5.5 Econometric results and discussion.....................................................................114
4.6 Conclusion...........................................................................................................132
CHAPTER FIVE: ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN UGANDA:
A HOUSEHOLD WELFARE PERSPECTIVE ......................134
5.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................134
5.2 Literature review on welfare and adaptation to climate change..........................135
5.3 Methodology .....................................................................................................141
5.3.1 Conceptual framework ......................................................................................141
5.3.2 The Model .........................................................................................................144
5.3.3 Hypotheses tested..............................................................................................148
5.4 Data sources and data transformation ...............................................................149
5.5 Results and discussion.......................................................................................151
5.5.1 Descriptive analysis ..........................................................................................151
5.5.1.1 Heterogeneity in welfare distribution................................................................151
5.5.1.2 Heterogeneity in adaptation strategies by covariate shock ...............................156
5.5.2 Empirical results, analysis and discussion .........................................................161
5.5.2.1 Aggregated impact of adaptation strategies by shock on welfare .....................163
xii
5.5.2.2 Heterogeneity in impacts of adaptation strategies by covariate shock on
welfare .............................................................................................................166
5.6 Conclusion..........................................................................................................178
CHAPTER SIX: CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS......................180
6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................180
6.2 Summary of study findings ................................................................................180
6.3 Policy implications.............................................................................................184
6.4 Limitations of the study and possible areas for further research.........................185
REFERENCES.............................................................................................................187
APPENDIX .............................................................................................................199
Appendix A: Additional Chapter 3 results .....................................................................199
Appendix B: Additional Chapter 4 results .....................................................................206
Appendix C: Additional Chapter 5 results .....................................................................216
xiii
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1: GDP growth rate by economic activity at constant (2002) prices .................13
Table 2.2: Changes to the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) ....................................................21
Table 3.1: Descriptive statistics for annual rainfall and temperatures: 1980-2011.........61
Table 3.2: Uganda’s agro-ecological zones ....................................................................76
Table 4.1: Marital status by residence and gender of household head (% of total) ......100
Table 4.2: Variable description and descriptive statistics .............................................106
Table 4.3: Number of sample households that experienced and adapted to shocks .....108
Table 4.4: Gender of household head by residence and region (% of total) .................111
Table 4.5: Coping mechanisms by gender of household head and covariate shock
(% of totals).................................................................................................112
Table 4.6: Pooled MNL estimates by gender for factors determining coping strategies
against drought (RRRs)...............................................................................119
Table 4.7: Pooled MNL estimates by gender for factors determining coping strategies
against floods ..............................................................................................124
Table 4.8: Pooled MNL estimates by gender for factors determining coping strategies
against crop pests (RRRs) ...........................................................................126
Table 4.9: Pooled MNL estimates by gender for factors determining coping strategies
against livestock epidemics (RRRs) ...........................................................131
Table 5.1: Added summary statistics ............................................................................151
Table 5.2: Consumption expenditure per adult equivalent at each decile.....................153
Table 5.3: Poverty status by gender of household head and residence (% of total)......154
xiv
Table 5.4: Coping strategies by covariate shock and area of residence (% of total) ....158
Table 5.5: Coping strategies by covariate shock and poverty status.............................160
Table 5.6: Pair wise correlation matrix of explanatory variables and log welfare........162
Table 5.7: Pooled OLS estimates for impact of adaptation strategies by shock on
household welfare .......................................................................................165
Table 5.8: Pooled OLS and 2SLS estimates of impact of adaption strategies during
droughts on welfare.....................................................................................170
Table 5.9: Pooled OLS and 2SLS estimates of impact of adaptation stategies during
floods on welfare.........................................................................................173
Table 5.10: Pooled OLS and 2SLS estimates of impact of adaptation strategies
during crop pests on welfare .......................................................................175
Table 5.11: Pooled OLS and 2SLS estimates of impact of adaptation strategies
during livestock epidemics on welfare........................................................177
Table B.1: Coping mechanism by region and type of shock ........................................206
Table B.2: Coping mechanism by gender of household head and access to extension
services........................................................................................................207
Table B.3: Coping mechanism by gender of household head & access to credit ........208
Table B.4: Pooled MNL estimates for factors determining coping strategies against
drought (Marginal effects) ..........................................................................210
Table B.5: Pooled MNL estimates for factors determining coping strategies against
floods (Marginal effects).............................................................................212
xv
Table B.6: Pooled MNL estimates for factors determining coping strategies against
crop pests (Marginal effects).......................................................................213
Table B.7: Pooled MNL estimates for factors determining coping strategies against
livestock epidemics (Marginal Effects) ......................................................214
Table B.8: Hausman-McFadden IIA test-Drought coping strategies............................215
Table B.9: Hausman-McFadden IIA test-Floods coping strategies ..............................215
Table B.10: Hausman-McFadden IIA test-Crop pests and diseases coping strategies ..215
Table B.11: Hausman-McFadden IIA test-Livestock epidemics coping strategies .......215
Table C.1: Real consumption per adult equivalent at each decile ...............................216
Table C.2: Pooled OLS and 2SLS estimates of adaptation during droughts and
welfare equations for poor and non poor households .................................217
Table C.3: Pooled OLS and 2SLS estimates of impact of adaptation during floods
on welfare equations for poor and non poor households ............................219
Table C.4: Pooled OLS and 2SLS estimates of impact of adaptation during crop
pests on welfare equations for poor and non poor households ...................220
Table C.5: Pooled OLS and 2SLS estimates of impact of adaptation during livestock
epidemics on welfare equations for poor and non poor households ...........222
Table C.6: 2SLS’s Wooldridge robust score test –coping drought...............................224
Table C.7: 2SLS’s Wooldridge robust score test –coping floods .................................224
Table C.8: 2SLS’s Wooldridge robust score test –coping crop pests ...........................224
Table C.9: 2SLS’s Wooldridge robust score test –coping livestock epidemics............224
xvi
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1: El Niño Southern Oscillation monitoring region........................................16
Figure 2.2: Average sea surface temperature in the central tropical Pacific.................17
Figure 2.3: Illustrating El Niño and La Niña for Uganda .............................................19
Figure 3.1: Homogeneous Rainfall Zones of Uganda...................................................59
Figure 3.2: Annual rainfall anomalies by weather station: 1980-2011 .........................63
Figure 3.3: Kampala monthly rainfall totals (mm): 1980 and 1990..............................68
Figure 3.4: Kampala monthly rainfall totals (mm): 2000 and 2010..............................68
Figure 3.5: Soroti monthly rainfall totals (mm): 1980 and 1990 ..................................69
Figure 3.6: Soroti monthly rainfall totals (mm): 2000 and 2010 ..................................69
Figure 3.7: Gulu monthly rainfall totals (mm): 1980 and 1990 ....................................70
Figure 3.8: Gulu monthly rainfall totals (mm): 2000 and 2010 ....................................70
Figure 3.9: Kasese monthly rainfall totals (mm): 1980 and 1990.................................71
Figure 3.10: Kasese monthly rainfall totals (mm): 2000 and 2010.................................71
Figure 3.11: Trends in annual temperature anomalies by weather station: 1980-2011 ..74
Figure 3.12: GIS Mapping Uganda’s agro ecological zones ..........................................77
Figure 3.13: GIS mapping of rainfall distribution in 2010..............................................94
Figure 3.14: GIS mapping of minimum temperature distribution, 2010 ........................78
Figure 4.1: Schematic representation of some core concepts of the action theory of
adaptation....................................................................................................84
Figure 4.2: Conceptual framework linking gender, climate change and adaptation......85
Figure 4.3: Length of shock-2005/06 (based on 5 year recall) ....................................109
xvii
Figure 4.4: Length of shock-2009/10 (based on 1 year recall period) .........................109
Figure 4.5: Predictive probability for FHHs for coping strategies- drought ................118
Figure 4.6: Predictive probability for MHHs for coping strategies-drought……….118
Figure 4.7: Predictive probability of FHHs for coping strategies against floods.........123
Figure 4.8: Predictive probability for MHHs coping strategies-Floods.......................123
Figure 4.9: Predictive probability for FHHs coping strategies-Crop pests..................144
Figure 4.10: Predictive probability for MHHs coping strategies- Crop pests................144
Figure 4.11: Predictive probability for FHH coping strategies- livestock epidemics ....130
Figure 4.12: Predictive probability of MHH coping strategies-livestock epidemics .....130
Figure 5.1: Conceptual framework: Welfare and adaptation to climate shocks and
change .......................................................................................................136
Figure 5.2: Distribution of income (Ushs) by household size, gender and poverty
status .........................................................................................................155
Figure A.1: Trends of annual rainfall totals by weather station: 1980-2011 ................199
Figure A.2: Trends in annual temperature anomalies by weather station: 1980-2011 .203
1
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the study
Climate change will bring with it increased frequency of natural disasters that affect agriculture and rural
households. It will alter temperatures and rainfall patterns, thereby changing farming practices and
household behaviour” Yamauchi and Quisumbing (2009)
Worldwide climate change is being acknowledged and climate governing bodies have
documented the means through which climate change is manifesting itself 1 .
Understanding climate change and its impacts on well-being requires an even deeper
understanding of the composition and drivers of climate. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that analysing any changes in climate requires
statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of quantities such as
temperature, humidity and rainfall over a period of time ranging from months to
thousands of years2 (IPCC, 2001; 2007). Observable changes in climate3 are affecting
millions of individuals/households especially those involved in agricultural activities as
agriculture largely depends on nature. In Uganda, about 77 percent of the country setting
is rural and more than 75 percent of the people residing in rural areas depend on
agriculture (UBoS, 2006; 2010). Yet, to my knowledge, no study in Uganda has
1See IPCC reports for 2001; 2007 and 2012.2 Climate change is used to indicate a significant variation (in a statistical sense) in either the long termmean state of the climate or in its variability for an extended period of time. The norm is 30 years asdefined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).3Uganda’s temperatures are likely to increase by up to 1.5 0c in the next 20 years and by up to 4.5 0c by2080 due to climate change and rainfall will increases by 10-120 percent over the same period over mostof the country (IPCC, 2007).
2
attempted to analyse the extent of climate change whose impacts affects households
especially dependent on agriculture. With increasing concern over changes in the
patterns of climate, such incidences are likely to hasten the already high vulnerability of
households in rural areas, thus posing a serious challenge to development efforts. With
persistent threats of climate change especially on the poor, it is critical to have a deeper
understanding of climate change patterns and choices of adaptation 4 strategies that
households are undertaking as they cope with a changing climate.
As earlier mentioned, predictable climate is relatively more important to the poor than
the non-poor in sub Saharan economies due to the poor’s heavy reliance on nature
dependent agricultural activities. For example, key changes in climatic conditions that
include unpredictable rainfall, flooding and more frequent droughts (Tompkins and
Adger, 2004) will affect the poor (high vulnerability) more than the non-poor and
agricultural households as they are more vulnerable to climate distortions. Skoufias et al.
(2011) argue that the non-poor are likely to recover faster than the poor due to the ease
within which they access their social networks during disasters. Uganda has recorded 13
droughts in the period 1991 to 2006 alone (UNAPA, 2007). In addition, Uganda
experienced severe floods in 1961/62, 1997/98, 2007 and in 2010. All these disasters
affect food production, damage infrastructure, displace and destruct livelihoods. More
so, the threats geared towards household security with significant gender implications
4 Adaptation/response change refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual orexpected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC,2001).
3
because of the different roles, needs, capacities and positioning of men and women in
society (Nampinga, 2008). As a consequence women and men are exposed to similar
natural disasters but the degree of impacts felt and nature of coping strategies taken are
not gender neutral. Recognition of this has led to the inclusion of gender considerations
in adaptation to climate change policy agenda in recent years (IPCC, 2012).
In Uganda, gender relations is an area of concern with regard to climate change, as it
contributes to the level of vulnerability a household faces and the possible choices of
responses taken to climate change distress events (Denton, 2002). Therefore, a gender
perspective in adaptation to climate change can moderate impacts and secure benefits
(Nampinga, 2008; Orindi and Erikessen, 2008). Women’s triple gender roles of
reproduction, economic and social roles, and their responsibilities including providing
for their households and engagement in livelihood strategies make them the cornerstone
of household welfare even in a male headed household (UN-HABITAT, 2009). For
instance, in times of drought and water stress, women walk long distances in search of
water for their families which reduces their opportunities to engage in productive
activities. Furthermore, unequal power relations between women and men lead to
differences in their access to environmental resources and opportunities for income
diversification, for example in wood sawing, game hunting, acquiring medicinal plants.
Hence, environmental vulnerability, and indeed security, affects women and men
differently, although, both play important roles in adaptation against climate distress
events.
4
Several studies have focused on the impact of climate change and some on adaptation.
Thus, research on adaptation to climate change extremes is on the rise (Adger et al.,
2003; Orindi and Erikessen, 2008; Piya et al., 2012). Yet, few studies have examined
factors influencing choice of adaptation strategies at case (farm) study level (Deressa et
al., 2008; Gbetibouo, 2009; Below et al., 2010) and country level (Hisali et al. 2011).
Further, the gender focus of these studies is inadequate. For example, existing studies on
gender and adaptation to climate change are theoretical (Denton, 2002; Aguilar, 2008;
Brody et al., 2008). Yet, arguments show that women and men have responded, and will
always respond to climate perturbations in many different ways depending on the
context (Denton, 2002; Aguilar, 2008; Muhanguzi et al., 2012). Empirical analysis of
choice of adaptation strategies with a gender focus at country level is hard to find.
However, Nabikolo et al. (2012) attempt to address this gap in research but their focus
on adaptation is limited. More succinctly, to our knowledge, no study has empirically
focused on gender and adaptation to climate change at country level in Uganda.
Therefore, this study fills this research gap and contributes to the growing body of
literature using the Uganda national household panel survey datasets.
Similarly, literature has largely focused on the impact of climate change shocks on
welfare (Eakin, 2000; Okuyama, 2009; Thomas et al., 2010; Skoufias et al, 2011) and to
our knowledge, none on the impact of adaptation to climate shocks on welfare. Di Falco
et al. (2011) attempt this, but focus on the impact of adaptation (a binary variable) on
household food security.
5
1.2 Statement of the problem
Most of the debate on climate change for the past 15 years has been on the impact of
climate change rather than the role of adaptation. Although evidence indicates that
climate change is actually occurring in many parts of Uganda, there is limited empirical
analysis to ascertain this. Specifically, climate change analysis in economic literature in
Uganda has mainly focused on analysis of climate variability (of temperature and
rainfall indicators), which cannot be a bench-mark for concluding that variability in
these indicators imply climate change. As a result, there is no in-depth and conclusive
analysis on the extent to which climate, which is naturally expected to vary over a long
period of time, has indeed changed to warrant cause for worry not only for the average
Ugandan farmers but for the country in general as new policy mandates are drafted and
the old ones revised.
In response to climate change perturbations, households are undertaking “impromptu” or
“last resort” coping measures. It has been widely acknowledged that climate change has
adverse impacts that are not gender neutral. How? Decision making processes at the
household level are said to be heterogeneous depending on the gender of the “final
decision maker or household head” despite households being in the same locality and
facing similar risks on a day-to-day basis. Such important implications though explored
in Uganda, where climate change has been given a gender perspective in the policy arena
and research, has never been quantified on a national scale and research in general. More
so, on the factors that influence a household’s choice of adaptation strategies employed
6
by gender of the household head. We believe that such limitation in evidence-based
research is undermining the implementation and enforcement of many of Uganda’s
policies that currently emphasise engendering outcomes.
In addition, whereas efforts to quantify the impact of climate change on welfare have
been made, similar efforts to empirically analyse the impact of choice of adaptation
strategies to climate change shocks on household welfare have not been carried. Thus,
this study contributes to literature by examining household welfare-adaptation strategies
linkage at the household level. On the policy front, despite Uganda ratifying to regional
and global obligations on gender, there is limited assessment on the extent to which
current policies and programmes address environment, climate change and the gendered
impact of climate change. That is, it is not clear how the draft climate policy will address
the implementation and enforcement of environmental regulations that indirectly
influence climate, affect welfare and gender. It is against this background that the study
first analyses the extent of climate variability and change then, identifies choices of
adaptation strategies to covariate shocks employed and factors determining these choices
by gender of the household head and finally, examine the impact of adaptation strategies
by covariate shock on household welfare.
1.3 Objectives of the study
The study’s broad objective is to provide empirical evidence on how gender shapes
choices of adaptation strategies undertaken as a result of climate change induced shocks
7
and analyse the impact of adaptation strategies employed on household welfare. The
study is guided by the following specific objectives:
i. Empirically analyse Uganda’s climate and how it has changed over time;
ii. Examine the extent to which gender of the decision maker of the household
influences choice of adaptation strategies employed and factors determining the
adaption process; and
iii. Quantify and analyse the impacts of coping strategies to climate distress events
on household welfare.
To address the above objectives, the study seeks to answer the following questions:
i. What are the key drivers of climate variability and change in Uganda?
ii. To what extent has climate change altered climate indicators from the natural
expected variability over time?
iii. What are the types and frequency of climate shocks affecting households?
iv. In response to the shocks, what are the coping strategies female and male headed
households utilising and, what are the factors determining the observable
differences in choice of adaptation strategies to climate shocks by gender?
v. Which vector of coping strategies choices by climate shock impact on welfare
greatly?
vi. Which categories of households experience higher welfare impacts as a result of
adaptation measures employed when climate shocks occur?
8
1.4 Significance of the study
Climate is changing but country level analysis and understanding of climate variability
and change is limited. In addition, differences in gender roles at household level due to
institutional, cultural and societal construction/frameworks that govern Ugandan
households are increasingly being recognised as an important area of focus in the study
of climate change and adaptation. Furthermore, identification of the determinants of
choices of adaptation strategies to climate change distress events by gender and the
impact of adaptation on welfare cannot be underscored. By throwing light on these
issues, novel insights from the study findings will, first, increase the understanding in the
analysis of climate change and its determinants. Second, increase awareness of the role
of gender in adaptation in order to improve gender and climate policies. In other words,
long term coping mechanisms implementation efforts if they are to be scaled up can be
appropriately targeted using evidence from this study. Third, since the study delves into
new grounds on estimation of the impact of adaptation strategies on welfare, this result is
important to the public and policy-makers through the incorporation of demand-side
information into the design of the climate policy agenda and the roles of the key
stakeholders in the implementation process. In general, the study adds novel literature on
climate change and adaption in general, and in particular, the role of gender and welfare
in relation to adaptation to climate change debate.
9
1.5 Scope
The study area is Uganda. According to UBoS (2012), Uganda has a total area of
241,550.7 square kilometres (sq. kms) and is located between latitudes 1.5 0 S to 4.5 0 N
and longitudes 29034’E & 3500’E. Open water and swamps cover 41,743.2 sq. kms and
land area is 199,807.4 sq. kms with cultivated land cover increasing from 84,010 sq. kms
in 1990 to 99,018.4 sq. km in 2005. Furthermore, Uganda is characterised by high
terrain, for example Mt. Rwenzori (5100 M), the south western highlands to the west and
Mt. Elgon (4321 M) and Moroto (3084 M) to the east. It contains several inland water
bodies like Lake Victoria and Lake Kyoga and several other lakes which lie in the
Western Rift Valley e.g. L. Albert, L. George, L. Edward and L. Katwe among others.
These physical features modify the spatial and temporal variations of the country's
climate.
On the other hand, Uganda has a total population (2012 mid-year) of 34.1 million5 of
which the urban population is 14.7 percent and sex ratio of total population was 95
males per 100 females (UBoS, 2012). Generally, nearly 7.5 million Ugandans, living in
1.2 Million households, were considered poor in 2009/10. The proportion of the poor
population reduced from 31 percent in 2005/06 to 25 percent in 2009/10. And lastly,
with regard to labour force status, 79 percent of the working population-between 14 and
64 years-in 2009/10 were self-employed and 21 percent were paid employees.
Agriculture sector engages 66 percent of the working population (UBoS, 2012).
5 Demographic estimates are based on the Census 2002 final results. Only population of gazetted city,municipalities and towns is considered as urban population.
10
Uganda was chosen for this study because of available data to carry out the research
objectives and due to the relatively added advantage that the author is more familiar on
the country’s dynamics and institutional frameworks.
1.6 Outline of the dissertation
The study comprises of six chapters. Chapter 2 reviews gender, welfare and climate in
Uganda with a focus on trends and policies. Chapter 3 provides an analysis of climate
variability and change in Uganda. Chapter 4 discusses adaptation to climate change in
Uganda with a gender perspective. Chapter 5 analyses adaptation to climate change in
Uganda with a household welfare perspective. And finally, Chapter 6 concludes by
providing a summary of key study findings, policy recommendations, limitations and
suggestions for future research.
11
CHAPTER TWO
GENDER, WELFARE AND CLIMATE IN UGANDA: TRENDS AND POLICY
REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
Uganda is a country whose economy relies heavily on its major agricultural cash crops
(especially coffee), and is thus among the sub Saharan African countries that are
vulnerable to climate change (UNFCCC, 2006). The country is apparently vulnerable to
climate change hazards due to her low adaptive capacity to adverse effects there from.
The adverse effects of climate change in Uganda include frequent and persistent
droughts and floods. These have increased in occurrence in the last few decades.
According to MAAIF (2008) report, Uganda is characterised with rampant poverty,
weak institutional capacity, lack of skills on climate change adaptability and inadequate
skills in disaster management, lack of equipment for disaster management, limited
financial resources and above all an economy which depends entirely on exploitation of
its natural resources such as use of forest trees for timber, medicinal value, clear forest
cover for agricultural production. Thus, in this chapter, discussed are the economic and
climate trends, policy and legal framework. In particular, we review the extent of
inclusion and recognition of climate change, gender and welfare in policy debate and
discuss their weakness in the institutional framework.
12
2.2 Overview of Uganda’s socio-economic status and climate
2.2.1 Uganda’s socio-economic status
Uganda has registered strong economic growth with Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
growth rate averaging 7.6 percent for the past seven years (Table 2.1). Specifically, the
Ugandan economy grew by 5.5 percent in 2009/10 which is 1.8 percentage points less
than the growth rate of 7.3 percent achieved in 2008/09 and grew by 6.3 percent in
2010/11, 0.8 percentage points more than that achieved in 2009/10 (Table 2.1). Although
there was a slowdown in the growth rate of GDP, it was nevertheless robust given that
the country faced adverse external shocks as well as natural disasters during 2008/09,
2009/10 and 2010/11. Industry grew by 7.5 percent, services 8.0 percent and 0.9 percent
for the agricultural sector in 2010/11.
In terms of contribution to total GDP, the share of agriculture, forestry and fishing in
total GDP at 2002 constant prices continued to decline from 15.1 percent in 2008/09 to
14.7 percent in 2009/10 to 13.9 percent in 2010/11. This decline was in line with recent
trends in structural transformation of the economy. The services and industrial sectors
are continually becoming the major drivers of growth, and the share of industry
increased from 25.0 percent to 25.3 percent in FY2009/10 and 2010/11 respectively at
constant (2002) market prices (UBoS, 2012; MoFPED, 2012).
13
Table 2.1: GDP growth rate by economic activity at constant (2002) prices
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Total GDP at market prices 6.3 10.8 8.4 8.7 7.3 5.5 6.3
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 2.0 0.5 0.1 1.3 2.9 2.4 0.9
Cash crops -5.5 -10.6 5.4 9.0 9.8 -1.1 -15.8
Food crops -0.2 -0.1 -0.9 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7
Livestock 3.0 1.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Forestry 6.5 4.1 2.0 2.8 6.3 2.9 2.8
Fishing 13.5 5.6 -3.0 -11.8 -7.0 2.6 0.4
Industry 11.6 14.7 9.6 8.8 5.8 6.5 7.5
Mining & quarrying 27.2 6.1 19.4 3.0 4.3 15.8 15.8
Manufacturing 9.5 7.3 5.6 7.3 10.0 6.6 6.5
Formal 11.8 7.8 4.9 9.2 12.0 6.1 7.2
Informal 3.6 6.0 7.0 2.1 4.4 8.2 4.3
Electricity supply 2.1 -6.5 -4.0 5.4 10.6 14.5 13.1
Water supply 3.9 2.4 3.5 3.8 5.7 4.4 4.1
Construction 14.9 23.2 13.2 10.5 3.7 5.9 7.7
Services 6.2 12.2 8.0 9.7 8.8 7.4 8.0
Wholesale & retail trade; repairs 7.2 12.3 10.4 14.7 9.7 0.7 3.0
Hotels & restaurants 6.5 8.7 11.3 10.7 4.5 4.5 4.1
Transport & communication 9.8 17.1 17.7 21.3 14.3 17.5 15.9
Road, rail & water transport 6.7 12.8 9.5 20.8 12.9 14.1 7.7
Air transport & support services 19.4 6.9 13.8 17.8 -3.6 0.9 2.1
Posts and telecommunication 11.8 26.2 29.1 22.6 19.8 23.7 21.2
Financial services 13.0 31.7 -11.9 17.1 25.4 36.1 10.3
Real estate activities 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7
Other business services 9.2 12.5 8.0 10.8 12.4 15.0 7.8
Public administration & defence -5.4 15.8 -6.3 12.1 5.5 6.9 12.0
Education 4.4 9.4 10.6 -6.5 4.3 -1.5 10.7
Health 5.6 12.9 2.7 -4.8 -3.2 11.9 12.6
Other personal & community services 15.0 14.1 13.4 12.8 12.3 11.8 11.4
Adjustments 3.4 17.6 27.9 17.5 10.2 -2.7 2.3
FISIM 39.2 34.2 13.8 15.9 27.1 69.1 27.0
Taxes on products 6.7 19.5 22.3 17.3 11.8 5.0 6.6
Note: FISIM-Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly MeasuredSource: Uganda Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Abstract, 2012
Furthermore, Table 2.1 shows the growth rates of various sectors and subsectors of
GDP, and it clearly highlights the poor performance of cash crop subsector (-15.8
14
percent), air transport and support services (2.1 percent), both sectors are vulnerable to
global economic trends. In particular to cash crops, the landslides/mudslides in the Mt.
Elgon slopes in 2009/10 and 2010/11 a major coffee producing region and sporadic rains
and prolonged dry spells in many parts of cotton growing areas led to the general poor
performance of cash crops. The main factors that collectively led to a slowdown in the
rate of growth of GDP include the changing climate and the consequent natural disasters,
external shocks, and reduction of exports to South Sudan (UBoS, 2012 and MoFPED,
2012).Uganda has witnessed various naturally triggered and human induced disasters,
examples of which include earthquakes, landslides/mudslides, floods, construction
accidents, fires, ethnic conflicts and wars, drought and pests (OPM, 2007). The relief
and rehabilitation phases of disaster responses have previously been the main focus of
disaster management in the country.
2.2.2 Uganda’s climate, definitions and drivers
2.2.2.1 Overview of Uganda’s climate
Uganda experiences tropical climate as it lies along the Equator. It generally has two
rainy seasons (March to May, September to November) and two dry seasons (December
to February, June to August). Although Uganda is on the equator, its climate is warm
and humid and average temperatures vary little throughout the year. Temperature
generally varies by altitude. For instance on Lake Albert, the mean annual maximum
temperature is 29° C (84° F) and the mean annual minimum temperature is 22° C (72°
F). In Kabale in the southwest, 1,250 m (4,100 ft) higher, the mean annual maximum
15
temperature is 23° C (73° F), and the mean annual minimum temperature is 10° C (50°
F). In Kampala, temperatures range between 27° C (81° F) and 17° C (63° F) (NEMA,
2007). Most of the territory receives an annual rainfall of at least 100 cm (UDoM, 2012).
2.2.2.2 Understanding climate definitions and drivers
Global context
No single climate phenomenon has more influence on year-to-year variation in average
global temperature than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When the central
tropical Pacific Ocean is warmer than average (El Niño) or colder than average (La
Niña) a cascade of atmospheric changes ensures that many parts of the globe feel the
effects. The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA)
Climate Prediction Center, the branch of the agency responsible for monitoring and
forecasting ENSO events point out that ENSO-related temperature fluctuations in the
tropical Pacific that have such far-reaching impacts on seasonal climates downstream
aren’t about a specific temperature. Instead, they are about relative temperatures, one
region being hotter or colder than usual, and the climate chaos that ensues when things
are not “normal”. The Niño 3.4 region is the area of the Pacific Ocean where observed
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is compared to average SST to calculate the Oceanic
Niño Index (ONI). The region spans a swath from 50N to 50S latitude and 1200W and
1700W longitude (Figure 2.1).
16
Figure 2.1: El Niño Southern Oscillation monitoring region
Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, 2012
Due to a significant warming trend in the Niño 3.4 region since 1950, El Niño and La
Niña episodes that are defined by a single fixed 30-year base period (e.g. 1971-2001) are
increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect inter-annual ENSO
variability. A centered 30-year base period means that El Niño and La Niña episodes
will be defined by their contemporary climatology. If the climate weren’t changing, the
difference between 30-year averages would be very small, and the impacts on the
apparent strength of historic El Niño and La Niña episodes would be negligible. But over
the span of the past century, ocean temperatures have been getting warmer, which means
that the baseline for detecting El Niño and La Niña has been shifting (Figure 2.2).
Implying that, the average monthly temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have been
increasing. Figure 2.2 shows the new 30-year averages that NOAA is using to calculate
the relative strength of historic El Niño and La Niña events. The past three decades have
been the warmest on record both globally and in the tropical Pacific.
17
Figure 2.2: Average sea surface temperature in the central tropical Pacific
Source: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, 2012
Ugandan context
There are 12 global climate prediction centres designated by the World Meteorological
Organisation (WMO) which work hand in hand with Regional Climate Centres (RCC)
around the world. Uganda is a member of IGAD Climate Prediction and Application
Centre (ICPAC) where it belongs to the RCC based in Nairobi, Kenya. Here, climate
predications for three month seasonal forecasts are made for the countries in the greater
horn of Africa.
Changes in climate in Uganda are largely determined by the conditions of the
sea/oceans. Discussions with Uganda Department of Meteorology (UDoM) and climate
change unit officials in June, 2012 reveal that predictions require several months of data
18
and use of specific software packages. In addition, it requires a collection of many
predictors such as wind indices, southern oscillation index, SSTs, baseline observations,
Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans indicators to mention a few. Long term forecasts rely
on probabilities and are not deterministic. The forecasts loose accuracy with time due to
the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and growth of measurement error in the models.
Implying that, a one month weather prediction is more accurate than three months
prediction despite both forecasts being of a probabilistic form. Put somewhat differently,
as the period gets longer and longer, forecasts loose meaning. The WMO under which
the IPCC is housed is the only institution mandated to carryout climate predictions after
so many consensus meetings have been held with various climate bodies established all
over the World. As a result, throughout this study, we exclusively use available climate
data for analysis and no climate change predictions are made.
Climate definitions
As earlier mentioned, anomalies in the SSTs over eastern and central tropical Pacific
Ocean trigger weather and climate anomalies in many parts of the world, especially
within the tropics where Uganda is located. Thus, in this study, climate variability and
change analysis in the subsequent chapter cannot be complete without fully
understanding two important climate terms: El Niño and La Niña. NOAA’s operational
definitions for El Niño and La Niña are:
19
i. El Niño: A phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a
positive/warm SST departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the
Niño 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5°C, averaged over three
consecutive months. For Uganda, there is a high correlation between El Niño
events and normal or above normal rainfall during the two cropping seasons-
usually leading to floods and landslides if prolonged.
ii. La Niña: A phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a
negative/ cold SST departure from normal (for the 1971-2000 base period) in the
Niño 3.4 region greater than or equal in magnitude to 0.5°C, averaged over three
consecutive months. There is a high correlation between La Nina events and
below normal or poorly distributed rainfall over many parts of Uganda during
October to December and March to May-usually leading to droughts if
prolonged.
Figure 2.3, illustrates the above climate definitions better.
Figure 2.3: Illustrating El Niño and La Niña for Uganda
Source: Author’s own based on WMO definitions
-0.5
0
+0.5
Sea
sur
face
tem
pera
ture
(0 c
)
Normal
El Niño: Above normal-heavyrainfall leading to floods
La Niña: Below normal-little or norainfall leading to droughts
20
Thus, departures from average SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region (see Figure 2.1) are critically
important in determining major shifts in the pattern of tropical rainfall, which influence
the jet streams and patterns of temperature and precipitation around the world with
varying chronic consequences. To derive the Oceanic Nino Indices shown in Table 2.2,
seasonal three monthly average SST datasets with coverage in the tropical Pacific Ocean
are analysed. From these SST datasets, the time series of three established SST regions
are calculated, which are commonly used to monitor and predict the ENSO. The
domains of these SST regions are averaged to form the Niño indices shown in Table 2.2.
To filter out month-to-month variability, average SST in the Niño 3.4 region is
calculated for each month and then averaged with values from previous month and
following month. A “season” is any 3-month rolling average: December-January-
February (DJF), January-February-March (JFM) and so on (see Table 2.2). This running
three-month average value is compared with average SST for the same three months
during 1981-2010. The departure from the 30-year average of the three-month average is
known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)6 presented in Table 2.2 from 1980-2011. For
La Niña or El Niño conditions to graduate to full blown episode, the temperature
anomaly must last five consecutive over lapping seasons. To allow rankings and
comparisons of all historic ENSO events, three long-lived events are colour-coded in the
Climate Prediction Center’s Table 2.2 of ONI: blue/shaded for “La Niña”, red/italics for
“El Niño” and black for “Niño Neutral”.
6Calculations of the ONI are well detailed in L’Heureaux et al. (2002). Linear trends in sea surfacetemperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and implications for El-Niño-Southern oscillation. ClimateDynamics, 1-14.doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1331-2
21
Table2.2: Changes to the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
1980 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0 -0.1 0 0 -0.1
1981 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
1982 -0.1 0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.2
1983 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8
1984 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1
1985 -1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4
1986 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2
1987 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1
1988 0.7 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -1.2 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -1.9
1989 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1
1990 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
1991 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.4
1992 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 1 0.7 0.3 0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0
1993 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
1994 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1 1.2
1995 1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9
1996 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5
1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.3
1998 2.2 1.8 1.4 0.9 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1 -1.2 -1.2 -1.4 -1.5
1999 -1.5 -1.3 -1 -0.9 -0.9 -1 -1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.7
2000 -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8
2001 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3
2002 -0.2 0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3
2003 1.1 0.8 0.4 0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
2004 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
2005 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8
2006 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1 1
2007 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.4
2008 -1.5 -1.5 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7
2009 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1 1.4 1.6
2010 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5
2011 -1.4 -1.3 -1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -1 -1Note: Warm (red/italics) and cold (shaded/blue) episodes are based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) (3month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on centered 30-year baseperiods updated every 5 years. For historical purposes cold and warm episodes (blue/shaded and red/italics coloured numbersrespectively) are defined when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.Source: Climate Prediction Centre, 2012
22
2.2.2.3 Characterising climate extremes in Uganda
Over 70 percent of natural disasters/shocks in Uganda are related to extreme climate
events such as strong winds, severe thunderstorms, droughts and floods among others
and these are linked with the El Niño and La Niña (UMU, 2011). These extremes
adversely affect the entire economy of which the poor are most affected. The risk faced
from extreme climatic events depends on the degree of, and/or the intensity of the event,
which can be determined from regular monitoring and analysis. According to UMU,
(2011), extreme climate events that pose potential risk include: droughts, floods,
landslides, hailstorms, thunderstorms, and lightning. In here, we focus on droughts and
floods that induce new and persistent shocks such as crop pests and livestock epidemics.
Drought has many definitions but three are most common: (i) Meteorological Drought:
This is a situation arising from deficiency of precipitation from that is expected over an
extended period of time; (ii) Hydrological Drought: This is a deficiency in surface and
subsurface water supplies; and (iii) Agricultural Drought: Deficiency in soil moisture (a
critical factor in defining crop production). It should be noted that any form of drought
originates from deficiency of rainfall (UMU, 2011).
Unlike many other natural disasters such as cyclones, floods and earthquakes, drought
has some unique characteristics in that it does not destroy food storage, shelter or
infrastructure. Yet, its impacts are higher in many developing countries, especially in
Africa. It installs itself slowly and it is often difficult to detect it onset until some major
23
impacts such as lack of water and food, start to be noticed. Its effects are cumulative. In
Uganda, where rain-fed agriculture forms a major source of food and income, drought
has severe effects on the welfare of communities, especially the poor. For example,
shortages in rural and urban water-supply, crop failure which leads to food shortages and
famine, livestock deaths, people and animals are forced to migrate in search of scarce
water and food. This provokes conflict between humans and animals over limited water
resources and pasture e.g. in Karamoja sub region due to conflict over animals,
government has designed a disarmament program which has taken a slow process to
bring peace and order in the region (Republic of Uganda, 2010).
On the other hand, floods result from prolonged, high intensity rainfall. Violent thunder
showers which are of short duration produce flash floods. Flash floods are common in
areas which experience heavy thunderstorms e.g. areas around Lake Victoria. Floods are
made worse by anthropogenic changes in the catchment's areas in the form of
urbanisation; various land-use changes like elimination of natural flood retention
capacities (concrete and asphalt surfaces) and interference with natural drainage
conditions (e.g. Nakivubo channel). Areas most under threat include flat low lying e.g.
Kasese district located in the south west and Soroti district in the eastern parts of the
country, urban areas like Kampala in the central region and suburbs (UDoM, 2011).
In order to contextualise climate variability, change and shocks for Uganda, we analyse
changes in the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) as provided by the Climate Prediction Centre
24
(CPC). Table 2.2 provides information on predictions for El Niño and La Niño and their
implications for Uganda.
From Table 2.2, note that when above normal rainfall (red/italics) is predicted as a result
of SSTs, Uganda will most likely experience above normal rains leading to floods in
most parts of the country (see years 1982/83, 1987, 1991/93, 1994, 1997/98, 2002, 2004,
2006/07). On the other hand, below normal rains (blue/bold) if predicted, almost the
whole country will experience very little or no rainfall coupled with high temperatures
causing droughts (see years 1984/85, 1988/89, 1995/96, 1998-2001, 2007/08, 2010/11).
Interesting to note is that in episodes where the country experiences El Niño (red/italics)
most likely La Niña (blue/bold) follows months or a year later and vice versa. In
1997/98, after a yearlong severe flood, drought followed that lasted for three years
ending in early 2001 (Table 2.2). This still is one of the worst floods the country has
experienced since the mid-seventies (Republic of Uganda, 2010). Since then, in 2006/07
the country experienced another severe flood and according to anecdotal data from the
National Disaster Preparedness Report (2010), the north eastern and some parts of the
eastern regions of the country were the worst hit leaving about 300,000 people homeless,
vulnerable, increased spread of water borne diseases, no education for school going
children as school infrastructure and accessibility roads were destroyed. The frequency
of such extreme weather events (floods and droughts) is on the increase (UNAPA, 2007)
leaving many Ugandan households vulnerable as about 75 percent depend on agriculture
which depends on nature (UBoS, 2012). This has gender and welfare implications in
25
regard to food security and health as households devise adaptation mechanisms to
climate shocks that directly impact negatively agriculture their main source of
livelihood.
2.3 A review of relevant legislation and policies
2.3.1 Legislation review
2.3.1.1 The Constitution of the Republic of Uganda, 1995
Legislation of issues relating to gender, climate change and environmental conservation
and sustainable natural resource management and conservation are provided for in the
1995 Constitution of the Republic of Uganda.
Section VI addresses gender balance and fair representation of marginalised groups, XV
is on recognition of the role of women in society. Section XXII on natural disasters
states that “the state shall institute an effective machinery for dealing with any hazard or
disaster arising out of natural calamities or any situation resulting in the general
displacement of people or serious disruption of their normal life” and XXVII addresses
the environment in which its stated that:
(i) The state shall promote sustainable development and public awareness of the
need to manage land, air and water resources in a balanced and sustainable
manner for the present and future generations.
(ii) The utilisation of the natural resources of Uganda shall be managed in such a
way as to meet the development and environmental needs of the present and
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future generations of Ugandans, and, in particular, the state shall take all
possible measures to prevent or minimise damage and destruction to land, air
and water resources resulting from pollution or other causes.
(iii) The state shall promote and implement energy policies that will ensure that
people’s basic needs and those of the environmental preservation are met.
(iv) The state, including local governments, shall: (a) Create and develop parks,
reserves and recreation areas and ensure the conservation of natural
resources; (b) Promote the rational use of natural resources so as to safeguard
and protect the biodiversity of Uganda.
More specifically, chapter fifteen of the constitution addresses issues relating to land and
the Environment. Land ownership is addressed in respect to many issues and
environmental protection is one of them. That is Land in Uganda belongs to the Citizens
of Uganda and shall invest in it in accordance with the land tenure systems provided for
in this constitution. Notwithstanding clause (1) of this article: (a) the Government or
local government may, subject to article 26 of this constitution, acquire land in the
public interest; and the conditions governing such acquisition shall be as prescribed by
Parliament; (b) the Government or a local government as determined by Parliament by
law shall hold in trust for the people and protect natural lakes, rivers, wetlands, forest
reserves, game reserves, national parks and any land to be reserved for ecological and
futuristic purposes for the common good of all citizens. With regard to the environment,
Article 245 on the protection and preservation of the environment states that Parliament
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shall, by law, provide for measures intended: (a) to protect and preserve the environment
from abuse, pollution and degradation; (b) to manage the environment for sustainable
development; and (c) to promote environmental awareness.
Chapter seventeen, Article 249 on Disaster Preparedness and Management Commission
outlines that: (1) there shall be a Disaster Preparedness and Management Commission
for Uganda to deal with both natural and man-made disasters. (2) Parliament, shall for
the purposes of this article prescribe the composition, functions and procedure for
implementation of the functions of the commission.
In this regard, a number of laws have been put in place to guide environmental and
natural resource management and conservation in the country as presented below.
2.3.1.2 The National Environment Statute, 1995
“Environment” has been defined as the physical factor of the souring of human beings
including land, water, atmosphere, climate, sound, odour, taste, the biological factor of
animals and plants and the social factors of aesthetics and includes both the natural and
the built environment. The National Environment Statute (NES) calls for the sustainable
management of the environment of Uganda. It also establishes key institutions such as
the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA), which is the supreme
agency responsible for environment management; the District Environment Office;
District Environment Committees and Local Environment Committees at different
28
levels. The NES makes some provisions related to mitigating the impacts of climate
change. For example, it establishes environmental standards; makes Environmental
Impact Assessments (EIAs) compulsory for projects with large impacts on the
environment; and authorizes NEMA to institute guidelines or measures for the
sustainable use of vital resources such as forests, wetlands, riverbanks, lakeshores and
hilly/mountainous areas.
The statute/act also suggests ways of promoting reforestation and the use of renewable
energy in Uganda. Nonetheless, the statute does not make specific provisions related
gender. Gender is only mentioned in the first schedule in reference to the composition of
the Policy Committee on Environment, in which the Minister responsible for Gender and
Community Development is one of the eleven members. Climate is just mentioned under
the definitions of the terms ‘element’ and ‘environment’, where climate is recognized as
a constituent part of the environment. Such omissions could partly be attributed to the
fact that climate change was not a priority concern and hence not given enough focus
during the formulation of the act as climate change was not on many policy agendas at
that time. NEMA, the environmental body put in place to execute government mandate
on environment is expected to prepare and disseminate a state of the environment report
once in every two years (this has been achieved). The statute on financial provisions
provides for the establishment of the National Environment Fund with financing sources
from Government, fees charged, fines levied, gifts, donations, voluntary contributions.
29
Funding from donors such as from the Global Environmental Fund is being used for
research and environmental awareness documentaries (such as ECO-TALK).
2.3.1.3 The National Forestry and Tree Planting Act, 2003
The purpose of the act is to create an integrated forestry sector that will facilitate the
achievement of sustainable increase in economic, social and environmental benefits. The
act is intended to guide and cause the people of Uganda to plant trees; ensure forests and
trees are conserved to meet the needs of the present without compromising the rights of
the future generations; promote the improvement of livelihoods through poverty
eradication; encourage public participation in management and conservation of forests
and trees; and facilitate greater public awareness of cultural, economic and social
benefits of conserving and increasing sustainable forest cover among others.
The act calls for conservation of natural resources, especially soils, air, and water
quality; and conservation of natural heritage and promotion of aesthetic, cultural and
spiritual values. It prohibits cutting, disturbing, damaging, burning or destroying any
forest produce or removing or receiving any forest produce except under lawful
regulations. Other prohibited activities include grazing, camping, livestock farming,
planting or cultivation of crops, recreational, commercial, residential, industrial or
hunting in reserved forests. This is an attempt to preserve forests for sustainable
utilization.
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Although the act provides for sustainable forest management that have an effect on
weather changes; it makes no mention of explicit focus on forestry as an adaptation
strategy to climate changes. In addition, the act remains generic on gender issues, paying
no specific attention to different roles/functions that men and women have in forests
management. It makes no attempt to map out men and women’s varying levels of
vulnerability to reduction in forest cover.
2.3.1.4 The National Environment Regulations Statutory Instrument 153 – 6.
The National Environment (Mountainous and Hilly Areas Management) regulations
spell out how mountains and hilly areas shall be managed. The legislation gives powers
to the district environment committee with respect to hilly and mountainous areas in its
jurisdiction to: (i) regulate land use through zoning, (ii) restrict and control activities
which are inconsistent with good land husbandry practices, and (iii) make guidelines for
the management of areas prone to landslides, floods, drought, avalanches, falling rocks,
fires and damage by wind
In addition, the statutory instrument highlights restrictions on the use of mountainous
and hill areas; the roles of local councils, landowners, occupiers and users and provides
rules for soil conservation. It further provides guidelines on how to handle offences
penalties and appeals. However, the statutory instrument is gender blind as it does not
give guidelines on how issues of gender inequalities and discrimination should be
handled.
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2.3.1.5 Guidelines for Wetlands Edge Gardening, 2005
The guidelines for wetlands edge gardening advice wetland users to form common
land/wet land associations or develop a common land management scheme to secure
their rights of access to and use of a wetland or wetland section and its natural resources
such as papyrus. The associations would be required to develop wetland resource use
management plans and by laws for the land and wetland under control by the
association. Although, the guidelines provide good information on wetland use and
management, it is short on the dissemination plan which would take into consideration
different stakeholders. The guidelines are gender blind. The guidelines do not target the
different users (men and women) of the wetlands and does not address gender
inequalities in resource distribution and use.
2.3.1.6 Other relevant legislations
Other relevant legislations include: The 1995 Water Statute which provides the
coordination mechanism of all public and private activities that might influence the
quality distribution, use or management of water resources; and the 1998 Land Act that
provides for land ownership and use rights. The Land Act, Section 44 provides for the
utilization of land. It states that a person who owns or occupies land shall manage and
utilize the land in accordance with the Forestry Act, the Mining Act, the National
Environment Statute (1995), the Water Statue (1995) and any other law.
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2.3.2 Policy review
Uganda has been actively involved in the global process and negotiations for addressing
the impact of climate change. The government recognizes the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (1992), the Kyoto Protocol and
Clean Development Mechanisms among others, global mechanisms that call upon states
to address climate change challenges by putting in place interventions that would ensure
“stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (UN, 1992).In
response to this global call, the government of Uganda developed a National Adaptation
Programmes of Action (NAPA) that identifies the urgent and immediate adaptation
needs of the country. Consequently, Uganda was selected, among other countries, to
benefit from the Global Environment Facility’s (GEF) Low Carbon Development
Strategy (LCDS) fund to implement the NAPA. The country has actively participated in
the Conference of Parties (COP) meetings as part of its commitment towards addressing
climate change challenges. Uganda developed a road map to Conference of Parties
(COP) 15 (Government of Uganda, 2009a) that highlights the national framework
guiding mitigation, adaptation and delivery of services to address the impact of climate
in the country.
Although Uganda does not have a working national policy on climate change yet, there
are a number of policies and laws that address issues relating to the environment and
33
climate change matters in particular. The current policy frameworks that address these
include:
2.3.2.1 The Energy Policy, 2002
The national energy policy for Uganda was passed in 2002. The policy provides for the
four energy sectors. The policy is supported by other sub polices, these are the
Renewable Energy policy, 2007 (REP) for the renewable sector and the National Oil and
Gas Policy, 2008 (NOGP) for the petroleum sector. The 2002 policy was initiated to
sustain the economic growth the country had achieved in the last decade and to ensure
widespread access to affordable modern energy. The main policy goal is: “to meet the
energy needs of Uganda’s population for social and economic development in an
environmentally sustainable manner.” The policy provides general objectives which
differ from its overall policy goal. The policy objectives include: a) Improvement of
energy security; b) Reduction of adverse environmental impacts arising from the use of
energy; and c) Improvement of industrial competitiveness.
The current institutional framework for the petroleum sector was set up to facilitate the
promotion and exploration for oil and gas. The NOGP highlighted the need to enhance
this framework to include broader aspects of the industry (upstream and downstream).
Two state companies are yet to be created. The Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU)
for handling regulatory functions and the Uganda National Oil Company (NATOIL) for
handling the business/commercial aspect. In 2002, the goal was to establish the
34
petroleum potential of the country and promote exploration. This has been successful
and it is now established that the country has commercial reserves of oil.
Some of the major challenges in the implementation of this policy have been finance,
political resistance from environmentalists, continual increase in the cost of energy
generation, too many government institutions involved in each sector with each having a
major role to play (each pushes their own agenda) which has affected coordination
leading to bureaucratic and unnecessary delays in decision making and above all poor
governance.
2.3.2.2 The Renewable Energy Policy for Uganda, 2007
The policy focuses on making renewable energy a substantial part of the national energy
consumption with a goal of increasing the use of modern renewable energy, from the
current 4 percent to 61 percent of the total energy consumption by the year 2017. The
need for a renewable energy policy was rooted in the recognition of the government’s
commitment on greenhouse gas emissions reductions, under the Kyoto protocol and to
contribute to the global fight against climate change. The policy recognises the need for
women to play a special role in the provision and management of energy sources since
they are most affected by inadequate energy supplies. It recognises gender differences in
interests, needs and priorities in the planning, implementation and monitoring of
renewable energy projects. Thus, energy technologies and services will be designed and
disseminated in ways that take into consideration the differences in tasks and roles
35
within the household, participation in decision making, and energy needs in situations of
energy shortage.
The policy’s objectives further emphasize mainstreaming poverty eradication, equitable
distribution and gender issues into renewable energy strategies such as provision of
improved wood stoves, improved charcoal stoves, institutional stoves, baking ovens,
household biogas, solar home systems and fruit driers.
Although the policy identifies gender and poverty as key issues that need to be
integrated in renewable energy management, it does not identify the institutional
mechanism for integrating gender. The policy neither recognises the role of the Ministry
of Gender, Lab
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