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Tom Reynolds
Air Traffic Control Systems Group
Friends & Partners of Aviation Weather (FPAW) Meeting
Washington, DC, August 3, 2016
Analysis Capabilities Developed
in Support of WTIC Research
Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited.
WTIC Winds Panel - 2
TGR 08/03/16
Time Target
Meter Fix
Time target and
Wind updates
Motivation: Wind Impacts on4D-Trajectory Based Operations
FMS
Wind
Forecast
ATC Systems
ATC
Wind
Forecast
Need for research to inform Minimum Weather Service & 4D-TBO guidance documents
Actual
Winds
FMS = Flight Management System
4D-TBO = 4D-Trajectory Based Operations
Fre
qu
en
cy
0
Time Error
95% time compliance
at meter fix
Other aircraft forming
traffic stream
WTIC Winds Panel - 3
TGR 08/03/16
• Support WTIC objective to develop a minimum weather service
• Perform analyses to determine wind information specifications and potential FMS wind-related enhancements that enable current and selected NextGen operations to meet performance objectives in various wind conditions
• Various capabilities developed to support this charter
Charter
Develop Modeling Framework
Identify NextGen Operations
Impacted by Wind Forecasts
Work with Stakeholders
• Identify performance objectives
Conduct Analysis
• Develop analysis infrastructure
• Develop Trade Spaces of
Performance vs data source,
accuracy, update rate, etc.
• Assess datalink implications
Develop Recommendations for
Minimum Wind Information and
Datalink Requirements
Te
ch
nic
al re
po
rts
,
RT
CA
ac
tivit
ies
, e
tc.
WTIC Winds Panel - 4
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Lincoln/WTIC Winds Program History
Wind Information Analysis Framework (WIAF)
Phase I II III IV V
12/2012 12/2013 11/2014 4/2016 4/20171/2012
Performance
AssessmentWind
forecast
assumpt
ions
Wind
Scenario Truth
Forecast
Air
cra
ft/A
uto
mati
on
Sim
ula
tio
n
Stakeholder needs
ATC
Scenario 4D-TBO
IM
Wind
Requirements
Identify combinations of
wind data forecast model
& look-ahead time which
meet required wind info
quality goal
Pe
rf
Me
tric
Wind Information Quality
Low
Med
High
Sample
targetperformance
Av
era
ge
fore
ca
st
err
or
Look-ahead time
Benign,
Moderate,
Severe,
Extreme
ModelABC
Req’d
wind
info
quality
Scenario VariableOverall Impact on
Performance
Worse Performance
From…*
Better Performance
From…*
FMS RTA capability Major
FMS RTA tolerance Major Wider RTA tolerance Tighter RTAtolerance
Wind forecast error
magnitudeMajor
Wind forecast error
location relative to meter fixMedium
Truth wind variabilityMedium (correlates
with error magnitude)
Cruise flight level Medium
Waypoint (wind forecast
point) densityMinor
Hi forecast
errorLo forecast
error
Near forecast
error
Far forecast
error
Hi var
truth wind
Lo var
truth wind
High cruise level Low cruise level
Few cruise wind WPs Many cruise wind WPs
Open-Loop
in Descent
Full Closed-
Loop Control
WTIC Winds Panel - 5
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Lincoln/WTIC Winds Program History
AircraftCDU
MCP
Autopilot
Autothrottle
ADC
ADIRS
FQPU
GPS Clock
TMC
Discretes
Comm
Layer
PilotAerodynamics,
Inertial
Engines, etc.FMS
AircraftCDU
MCP
Autopilot
Autothrottle
ADC
ADIRS
FQPU
GPS Clock
TMC
Discretes
Comm
Layer
PilotAerodynamics,
Inertial
Engines, etc.FMS
Common Data Bus
Airline ATCAIM Web
Service
Wx Web
Service
Wx
Controller
Cockpit
DisplayLRU DisplayLRU DisplayLRU DisplayLRU DisplayLRU Displays
MCP
Display
CDU Web
Display
Scenario
Controller
Data
Collection
CDU
Scripter
Mapping
Display
CDU/Track
Web Server
= Lincoln
= Honeywell
= Lockheed
Services/ Agents/Displays
AircraftCDU
MCP
Autopilot
Autothrottle
ADC
ADIRS
FQPU
GPS Clock
TMC
Discretes
Pilot
Aerodynamics,
Inertial
FMS
x40 Aircraft
Engines
AircrafT Operations Modeling System (ATOMS)
Phase I II III IV V
12/2012 12/2013 11/2014 4/2016 4/20171/2012
Low (5 kts RMS)
Medium (15 kts RMS)
Hi (25 kts RMS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
A-FMS/Tol 6A-FMS/Tol 30
B-FMS/Tol 30
95%
RTA
Co
mp
lian
ce (
secs)
Wind forecast
errorFMS RTA Capability/Tolerance
A-FMS=GE and HW RL FMS
with full flight RTA control
B-FMS= HW BL FMS with
cruise RTA control only
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Case Study: Establishing Wind Information Needs and Associated ConOps/Datalink Needs to Support a Given
Level of Required 4D-TBO Performance
Low (5 kts RMS)
Medium (15 kts RMS)
Hi (25 kts RMS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
A-FMS/Tol 6A-FMS/Tol 30
B-FMS/Tol 30
95
% R
TA
Co
mp
lia
nc
e (
secs)
Wind forecast
errorFMS RTA Capability/Tolerance
A-FMS=GE and HW RL FMS
with full flight RTA control
B-FMS= HW BL FMS with
cruise RTA control only
1. Define scenarios of interest
2. Identify performance trade-space
3. Select target performance level
4. Do feasible combinations
of performance drivers meet target level of performance?
Yes (wind error limit)
No
5. Do feasible
combinations of wind forecast model and look-
ahead time meet error
limit?
Yes
No
Identified need for
enhanced
automation and/or
wind model
“or”
6. Define procedure/ConOps/datalink needs to
get required wind info accuracy to aircraft
4D-TBO from cruise at FL290-390 to
meter fix at 12,000 ft
±10 secs
95% of time
(slice
through
trade-space
at 20 secs)
1) Any combination with 5 kts RMS wind error
2) A-FMS/Tol 6 only with 15 kts RMS wind error
3) No FMS/operation with 25 kts RMS wind error
Wind information needed
to support any studied
aircraft/FMS combination
On average:
GFS: cannot support 5 kts RMSE
RAP: <2.1 hrs lookahead
HRRR: <3.0 hrs lookahead
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• Integration of WIAF, ATOMS & MAFID (Meteorological and Flight Information Database)
– Allows identification of scenarios based on operational flights meeting desired criteria
– Simulate flights with truth atmosphere data based on MDCRS measurements
Current Infrastructure Development
Aircraft Reported
Atmosphere Model (ARAM)
Forecasted Wind &
Temperature Selection
Trajectory Estimation
ATOMS
Weather Forecast
Data Service
Route Planning
Datalink ForecastsSelection
Scenario Creation
Flight Simulation
Scenario Definition
Scenario Data Files Creation
Test Definition
ARAM Flight Qualification
Flight Qualification
MDCRSTFMSASDE-X
Flown Route Analyzer
Data AssociationData Ingest
CIFP
HRRR
Route Service
MAFID
Aircraft ATCAtmos. AOC Etc.
MDCRS = Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System
Phase I II III IV V
12/2012 12/2013 11/2014 4/2016 4/20171/2012
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• To maximize the realism of the conditions, now can use aircraft-derived meteorological data reports from MDCRS-equipped aircraft
• Simulated aircraft reproduced actual flights
Leveraging Aircraft In-SituAtmospheric Measurements
MDCRS = Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System
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• Key research questions:
1. What is the impact to RTA performance of increasing the number of Descent Forecast Levels (DFLs) in a B757 FMS from four to nine?
2. What is the impact to RTA performance of optimized wind altitude selection for B757 FMS descent wind definitions?
Latest RTA Analysis
1
DFL
2
3
4
Operational B757 Pegasus FMS
(4 DFLs, wind only)
Enhanced B757 Pegasus FMS
(9 DFLs, wind & temp)
DFL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
A B
C D 9 DFLs 4 DFLs
Headwind optimized profile
Magnitude optimized profile
Equidistant altitude selection profile
WTIC Winds Panel - 10
TGR 08/03/16
• Airlines currently often use simple wind selection procedures to determine what (if any) forecast information to load into the FMS
• FMS can only accept a limited set of forecast data at discrete points
– E.g., Four Descent Forecast Levels (DFLs)
Latest RTA Analysis:Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent Forecasts
DFL
Boeing 757, Honeywell Pegasus FMS
DFL = Descent Forecast Level
1
2
3
4
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Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent ForecastResearch Questions
1
DFL
2
3
4
1. What is the impact to RTA performance of increasing the number of
DFLs in a B757 FMS from four to nine?
Operational B757 Pegasus FMS
(4 DFLs, wind only)
Enhanced B757 Pegasus FMS
(9 DFLs, wind & temp)
DFL = Descent Forecast Level
DFL
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
WTIC Winds Panel - 12
TGR 08/03/16
Effect of Enhancing FMS Descent ForecastResearch Questions
2. What is the impact to RTA performance of optimized wind altitude
selection for B757 FMS descent wind definitions?
A B
C D 9 DFLs
Headwind optimized profile
Magnitude optimized profile
Equidistant altitude selection profile
4 DFLs
WTIC Winds Panel - 13
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• Analysis capabilities critical to support WTIC mission
• Range of tools developed at Lincoln to assess impacts of atmospheric forecast accuracy on 4D-TBO performance
• Application of tools being leveraged in range of areas, e.g., RTCA guidance documents
• On-going work:
– Use of aircraft-derived winds (e.g., via Mode S EHS)
– RTA to lower altitude meter fixes
• Interested to explore collaborations with other stakeholders who could benefit from access to tools
Summary
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This material is based upon work supported by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002 and/or FA8702-15-D-0001. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Aviation Administration.
© 2016 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Delivered to the U.S. Government with Unlimited Rights, as defined in DFARS Part 252.227-7013 or 7014 (Feb 2014). Notwithstanding any copyright notice, U.S. Government rights in this work are defined by DFARS 252.227-7013 or DFARS252.227-7014 as detailed above. Use of this work other than as specifically authorized by the U.S. Government may violate any copyrights that exist in this work.
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Backups
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KDEN Simulations(No Forecast Data)
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KDEN Simulations(Cruise and 4 Magn-opt DFLs w/ 3hr fcst)
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ResultsAll Qualified Flights, Wind Magnitude Optimized
±2 × std
Within
+/- 10sec: 24.5%
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