A.Montani; Eurorisk-Preview COSMO meeting, Zurich, 20-23 September 2005 PREVIEW in some words...

A.Montani; Eurorisk-PreviewCOSMO meeting, Zurich, 20-23 September 2005

PREVIEW in some words(PREVention, Information and Early Warning)

• A project funded by the European Commission– 23 millions € of eligible costs, 14 millions € granted

• New information services to help risk management– Gathering users needs

– Using the most advanced research and technology

– Validation on operational platforms

• 58 partners from 15 nations– Scientists

– Operators

– Industrial companies

– End Users

• 45 months performance schedule (start on 1 April 2005) and yearly budget reviews

COSMO partners involved: DWD, ARPA-SIM, ARPA Piedmont, Meteoswiss

A.Montani; Eurorisk-PreviewCOSMO meeting, Zurich, 20-23 September 2005

Provision of probabilistic forecasts and warnings of strong wind events at all time ranges up to 10 days ahead.

Windstorms Workpackage(DWD, ARPA-SIM)

• Ensemble Forecast inputs:– Medium-Range (3-10 days)

• ECMWF• ARPA-SIM (COSMO-LEPS) (Days 3-5)

– Short-Range (1-2 days) – multi-model ensemble consisting of contributions from:

• Meteo-France - PEACE• DWD - SRNWP-PEPS• Met.no - TEPS/LAM EPS• Met Office - LAMEPS/EPS

• Post-processing…

A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005

Clone of COSMO-LEPS suite over NW Europe

Generation of a new limited-area ensemble forecast system for the prediction of wind and wind gusts over North-Western Europe.

Aim: provision of site-specific wind forecasts to be post-processed and combined with other products by UK Met. Office.

Same configuration as the operational COSMO-LEPS (red), but both clustering and integration domain are shifted northwards (blue).

Experimental suite will start on June 2006.Computer time provided by an ECMWF special

project between ARPA-SIM and UK Met Office.

A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005

Provision of probabilistic forecasts so as to generate ensemble flood forecasts to be compared with the

deterministic approach for ranges between 3 and 10 days.

The upper-Danube river basin has been selected as pilot river basin and the test period will include the large floods of August 2002.

Medium-range plain flood Workpackage

(DWD, ARPA-SIM)

Very short-range high-resolution flash-flood Workpackage

(ARPA-Piedmont, Meteoswiss)

Prepare the use of next-generation NWP models for hydrological applications in flash-flood forecasting over medium basins.

Establish the know-how for developing hydrometeorological coupled model systems for flash-flood forecasting.