Afghanistan alt

AFGHANISTANYesterday, Today and Tomorrow

Peter Gadzinski

petergadz@gmail.com

Topics Geography People History Kabul International Airport (KAIA) The Taliban Sexuality Mineral Wealth Drugs Corruption The Cost of War What’s Next

Geography is Destiny

Modern Afghanistan Slightly Smaller than Texas, Bad Neighborhood

People

Pashtun42%

Tajik27%

Hazara9%

Uzbek9%

Other13%

A Short Pre-Modern History

Alexander the Great – 322 BC Arab Invasion – 750 AD Mongol Invasion – 1260 AD National Unification – 1747 Anglo-Afghan Wars, 1839-42, 1878-80

A Short Modern History

King Zahir Shah, 1933-73 – “Golden Age” Prime Minister Daoud Coup, 1973 Communist Coup, 1978; Soviet Invasion, 1979 Soviet Retreat, 1989; Civil War Taliban take Kabul, 1996 U.S. Invasion, 2001 President Hamid Karzai, 2001–2014 Transformation Decade: 2014-2024

KAIA (Kabul International Airport)ISAF Joint Command (IJC)

NATO BASE

KAIA in Pictures

The Taliban (“Students”)Laws imposed by the Taliban: A ban on playing or listening music A ban on television Dress code for men and women Ban on photographs of people or animals Ban on flying kites and playing soccer Ban on education of girls after age 8 Women not allowed to leave home without a male family member Women not allowed to work outside home, except a few nurses and medical

doctors

Sex and the Single Afghan: The Fantasy

Sex and the Single Afghan: The Reality (Bacha Bazi)

$1 - $3 Trillion in Mineral WealthThe Saudi Arabia of Lithium

Iron, Copper, Cobalt, Gold, Oil, Natural Gas, Gemstones BUT…Security, Financing, Lack of Infrastructure, Poor

Rule of Law Hinder Exploitation Project Finance = 30-Year Story

DrugsWorld’s Top Producer of Opium and Hashish

Opium Crop worth $2-3 billion at the

border and employs 1.5M Afghans

CorruptionPervasive Problem: Grand to Petty

Kabul Bank “Ponzi Scheme” = $950 Million Loss Administrative Corruption Security Forces: Pay to Play, Ghost Soldiers Foreign Aid Narcotics Trafficking Border Corruption Extortion, Theft

Murder

Corruption Perceptions Index

The Cost of War U.S. – 2200 Dead, 18,000 Wounded NATO – 1000 Dead (40% UK) Afghan Civilians – 13,000 Dead (2007 on) Afghan Security Forces – 6800 Dead (2007 on)

ESTIMATED U.S. SPENDING = $1.2 TRILLION

What’s Next? Best Outcome: Legitimate 2014 Election Produces Strong Leader, Successful

Transformation Decade Follows

Likely Outcome: Political Settlement with Insurgency Produces De Facto Internal Division

Worst Outcome: Active Insurgency, Warlordism, Civil War

QUESTIONS?