About these slides: These slides were developed for David Lam’s presidential address to the 2011...

About these slides: These slides were developed for David Lam’s presidential address to the 2011 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, D.C., April 1, 2011. They have been revised since the address to incorporate the U.N.’s latest population estimates. The notes roughly follow the script of the presidential address. The slides are available for public use under the following conditions: 1.The original source must be acknowledged. 2.They are only to be used for educational purposes. 3.The slides can be modified and separated as long as the content is not substantially altered and each slide retains the author and title information at the bottom of the slide.

Note that the slides are not intended to stand alone, but are to accompany the written version of the paper:David Lam, “How the world survived the population bomb: Lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history,” Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, August 2011.

Excellent research assistance in production of the paper and the slides was provided by Kendra Goostrey.

David LamProfessor, Department of Economics

Research Professor, Population Studies CenterUniversity of Michigan

davidl@umich.eduhttp://personal.psc.isr.umich.edu/~davidl/

August 10, 2011

How the World Survived the Population Bomb

David LamUniversity of

Michigan

Lessons from 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic

History

World population is projected to reach 7 billion in 2011.

We reached 6 billion in 1999.

United Nations Population Division Estimates

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Thomas Malthus1766-1834

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

1960

World population reached 3

billion

Time MagazineJanuary 1960

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

1963

World population growth

reached 2.2% per year.

U.S. Census Bureau Estimates

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

1968Paul Ehrlich publishes

The Population Bomb

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How unusual was the demography of the

1960s?

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

39 years

World PopulationDoubling times

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

39 years

70 years

World PopulationDoubling times

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

150 years

39 years

70 years

World PopulationDoubling times

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

150 years

500 years

39 years

70 years

World PopulationDoubling times

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

150 years

500 years

1200 years

39 years

70 years

World PopulationDoubling times

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

150 years

500 years1200

years

39 years

70 years

What is the next

number in this

sequence?

World PopulationDoubling times

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion?

a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years

d. 60 years e. 100 years

f. Over 100 years

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion?

a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years

d. 60 years e. 100 years

f. Over 100 years

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion?

a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years

d. 60 years e. 100 years

f. Over 100 yearsg. Over 1000

years?

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion?

a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years

d. 60 years e. 100 years

f. Over 100 yearsg. Over 1000

years?h. Forever?

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

U.N. projections of world population to 2100

High, Medium, and Low Variants

UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Annual growth rate of world population

Pre-1950 estimates

1963 2.19%(Census Bureau)

2010

1.15%

Census Bureau estimates and projections

1968 2.03%

(UN)UN estimates and projections

UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

The Demographic Transition

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Crude Birth Rate

Crude Death Rate

Rate of Natural Increase

Demographic Transition

Southeast Asia

per 1000 population

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Birth rate

Death rate

Rate of Natural Increase

Demographic Transition

Sub-Saharan Africa

per 1000 population

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Crude Birth Rate

Crude Death Rate

Rate of Natural Increase

Demographic Transition

World

per 1000 population

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Three Big Concerns

1. Would we be able to feed everyone?2. Would we run out of resources?3. Would poverty increase?

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Food Production

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“The world, especially the developing world, is rapidly running out of food…. In fact, the battle to feed humanity is already lost, in the sense that we will not be able to prevent large-scale famines in the next decade or so.”

- Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

World Food Production 1961-

1980(1961=100)

Populati

onTotal Food

Production

Per Capita Food

Production

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“As the 1980’s begin, the growth in world production is losing momentum and its excess over population growth is narrowing.”

Lester Brown, Science 1981

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

World Food Production1961-2009(1961=100)

Population

Total Food Production

Per Capita Food Production

Populati

on

Total Food

Production

Per Capita Food

Production

Food and Agriculture Organization

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Food Production

in India

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“My examination of the trend of India’s grain production over the last eighteen years leads me to the conclusion that the present 1967-1968 production…is at a maximum level.”

-Louis H. Bean, quoted in Paul Ehrlich,

The Population Bomb, 1968

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

India Food Production1961-1990(1961=100)

Populati

on

Total Food

Production

Per Capita Food

Production

Food and Agriculture Organization

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“Since 1983, India’s rising grain production has lost momentum….the country appears to be facing a catastrophic problem in the 1990s...”

Paul Ehrlich & Anne EhrlichThe Population Explosion, 1990

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

India Food Production1961-2009(1961=100)

Populati

on

Total F

ood

Producti

on

Per Capita Food

Production

Populati

onTotal Food Productio

n

Per Capita Food

Production

Food and Agriculture Organization

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Food Production in Sub-Saharan

Africa

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Sub-Saharan AfricaFood Production

1961=100Po

pulati

on

Total Food

Production

Per Capita Food Production

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Yogi Berra and/or

Neils Bohr

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Resource Depletion

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Julian Simon

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

“If you are prepared to pay me now the current market price for $1,000 worth of any mineral you name, I will agree to pay you the market price of the same amount of that raw material on any future date you now specify.”

Julian Simon, 1981 The Ultimate Resource

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Julian Simon’s bet with Paul Ehrlich

Total inflation-adjusted cost fell from $1000 in 1980 to $618 in 1990

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Real prices of metals1960-2010(1980=100)

Chromium

Tungsten

Copper

Nickel

TinSource: USGS

Simon-Ehrlich bet

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Energy

Non-Energy

Food

Real commodity prices 1960-2010

(1980=100)

Source: World Bank

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Poverty

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Percent in PovertyLow and Middle Income Countries

(in 2005 US dollars)

< $2.00 per day< $1.25 per day

World Bank estimates

< $1.25 per day excluding China

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Number in Poverty (Billions)Low and Middle Income Countries

< $2.00 per day

< $1.25 per day< $1.25 per day (excluding China)

World Bank estimates

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

East Asia

Latin America

Percent in Poverty<$1.25 per day

World Bank estimates

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

How did we survive?

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Economics

1. Market responses2. Innovation3. Globalization

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Economics

1. Market responses2. Innovation3. Globalization

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Vietnam Food Production1961=100

Populati

on

Tota

l Foo

d

Prod

uctio

n

Per Capita Food

Production

1981-89 liberalizat

ion

Food and Agriculture Organization

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Economics

1. Market responses2. Innovation3. Globalization

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Norman Borlaug, “Father of the Green Revolution”

1970 Nobel Peace Prize Winner

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Rice-World

Wheat-World

Productivity:Yield per hectare

1961=100

Food and Agriculture Organization

Wheat-India

Rice-India

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Economics

1. Market responses2. Innovation3. Globalization

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Exports as % of GDP

Low and Middle Income Countries

High income countries

World Bank estimates

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Demography

1. Urbanization2. Fertility decline3. Investments in children

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Demography

1. Urbanization2. Fertility decline3. Investments in children

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Urban and Rural PopulationWorld (billions)

Total

Urban

Rural

UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Demography

1. Urbanization2. Fertility decline3. Investments in children

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Total Fertility RateWorld

Decline of 82% relative to replacement fertility

Decline of 47% from 1950 to 2010

UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Total Fertility Rate

Sub-Saharan Africa

East Asia

Southeast Asia

South Asia

Latin America

UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Why did fertility fall so rapidly?

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

TFR by Wanted TFR74 DHS countriesN=185

TFR=1.07(0.12)+0.98(0.033)WTFR

R2=.83

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Change in TFR by Change in Wanted TFR43 DHS countriesN=95

TFR=-0.028(0.006)+0.829(0.085)WTFR

R2=.466

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Demography

1. Urbanization2. Fertility decline3. Investments in children

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Percentage of cohort with primary schooling, Brazil

Female

Male

Census data via IPUMS-International

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Why did schooling

increase so rapidly?

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS)University of Cape Town – University of

MichiganMajor support from NICHD

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Enrollment rate of Africans who have not completed secondary

schoolCape Area Panel Study 2005

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Larger Cohorts and Smaller

Families

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

The Transition from Quantity to

Quality

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Years of schooling of 16-17 year-olds, Brazil

1960

1970

1980

1991

2000

Census data via IPUMS-International

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Years of schooling of 16-17 year-olds, Brazil

1960

1970

1980

1991

2000

0.98 increase

3.34 increase

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Census data via IPUMS-International

Have we really survived?

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Mean annual temperature (Fahrenheit)Global average, 1880-2010

Source: NASA

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, U.S., 1900-2005(1900=100)

Source: Smith et al 2011

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

Source: World Bank

Food Price Index(2000=100)

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011

What will 2050 be like?

David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011