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About these slides: These slides were developed for David Lam’s presidential address to the 2011 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, D.C., April 1, 2011. They have been revised since the address to incorporate the U.N.’s latest population estimates. The notes roughly follow the script of the presidential address. The slides are available for public use under the following conditions: 1.The original source must be acknowledged. 2.They are only to be used for educational purposes. 3.The slides can be modified and separated as long as the content is not substantially altered and each slide retains the author and title information at the bottom of the slide.
Note that the slides are not intended to stand alone, but are to accompany the written version of the paper:David Lam, “How the world survived the population bomb: Lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history,” Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, August 2011.
Excellent research assistance in production of the paper and the slides was provided by Kendra Goostrey.
David LamProfessor, Department of Economics
Research Professor, Population Studies CenterUniversity of Michigan
[email protected]://personal.psc.isr.umich.edu/~davidl/
August 10, 2011
How the World Survived the Population Bomb
David LamUniversity of
Michigan
Lessons from 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic
History
World population is projected to reach 7 billion in 2011.
We reached 6 billion in 1999.
United Nations Population Division Estimates
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Thomas Malthus1766-1834
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
1960
World population reached 3
billion
Time MagazineJanuary 1960
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
1963
World population growth
reached 2.2% per year.
U.S. Census Bureau Estimates
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
1968Paul Ehrlich publishes
The Population Bomb
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How unusual was the demography of the
1960s?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
39 years
World PopulationDoubling times
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
39 years
70 years
World PopulationDoubling times
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
150 years
39 years
70 years
World PopulationDoubling times
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
150 years
500 years
39 years
70 years
World PopulationDoubling times
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
150 years
500 years
1200 years
39 years
70 years
World PopulationDoubling times
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
150 years
500 years1200
years
39 years
70 years
What is the next
number in this
sequence?
World PopulationDoubling times
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion?
a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years
d. 60 years e. 100 years
f. Over 100 years
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion?
a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years
d. 60 years e. 100 years
f. Over 100 years
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion?
a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years
d. 60 years e. 100 years
f. Over 100 yearsg. Over 1000
years?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How many years from 1999 until the world population reaches 12 billion?
a. 20 years b. 30 years c. 40 years
d. 60 years e. 100 years
f. Over 100 yearsg. Over 1000
years?h. Forever?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
U.N. projections of world population to 2100
High, Medium, and Low Variants
UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Annual growth rate of world population
Pre-1950 estimates
1963 2.19%(Census Bureau)
2010
1.15%
Census Bureau estimates and projections
1968 2.03%
(UN)UN estimates and projections
UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
The Demographic Transition
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rate
Rate of Natural Increase
Demographic Transition
Southeast Asia
per 1000 population
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Birth rate
Death rate
Rate of Natural Increase
Demographic Transition
Sub-Saharan Africa
per 1000 population
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Crude Birth Rate
Crude Death Rate
Rate of Natural Increase
Demographic Transition
World
per 1000 population
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Three Big Concerns
1. Would we be able to feed everyone?2. Would we run out of resources?3. Would poverty increase?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Food Production
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“The world, especially the developing world, is rapidly running out of food…. In fact, the battle to feed humanity is already lost, in the sense that we will not be able to prevent large-scale famines in the next decade or so.”
- Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, 1968
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
World Food Production 1961-
1980(1961=100)
Populati
onTotal Food
Production
Per Capita Food
Production
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“As the 1980’s begin, the growth in world production is losing momentum and its excess over population growth is narrowing.”
Lester Brown, Science 1981
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
World Food Production1961-2009(1961=100)
Population
Total Food Production
Per Capita Food Production
Populati
on
Total Food
Production
Per Capita Food
Production
Food and Agriculture Organization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Food Production
in India
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“My examination of the trend of India’s grain production over the last eighteen years leads me to the conclusion that the present 1967-1968 production…is at a maximum level.”
-Louis H. Bean, quoted in Paul Ehrlich,
The Population Bomb, 1968
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
India Food Production1961-1990(1961=100)
Populati
on
Total Food
Production
Per Capita Food
Production
Food and Agriculture Organization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“Since 1983, India’s rising grain production has lost momentum….the country appears to be facing a catastrophic problem in the 1990s...”
Paul Ehrlich & Anne EhrlichThe Population Explosion, 1990
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
India Food Production1961-2009(1961=100)
Populati
on
Total F
ood
Producti
on
Per Capita Food
Production
Populati
onTotal Food Productio
n
Per Capita Food
Production
Food and Agriculture Organization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Food Production in Sub-Saharan
Africa
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Sub-Saharan AfricaFood Production
1961=100Po
pulati
on
Total Food
Production
Per Capita Food Production
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Yogi Berra and/or
Neils Bohr
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Resource Depletion
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Julian Simon
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
“If you are prepared to pay me now the current market price for $1,000 worth of any mineral you name, I will agree to pay you the market price of the same amount of that raw material on any future date you now specify.”
Julian Simon, 1981 The Ultimate Resource
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Julian Simon’s bet with Paul Ehrlich
Total inflation-adjusted cost fell from $1000 in 1980 to $618 in 1990
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Real prices of metals1960-2010(1980=100)
Chromium
Tungsten
Copper
Nickel
TinSource: USGS
Simon-Ehrlich bet
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Energy
Non-Energy
Food
Real commodity prices 1960-2010
(1980=100)
Source: World Bank
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Poverty
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Percent in PovertyLow and Middle Income Countries
(in 2005 US dollars)
< $2.00 per day< $1.25 per day
World Bank estimates
< $1.25 per day excluding China
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Number in Poverty (Billions)Low and Middle Income Countries
< $2.00 per day
< $1.25 per day< $1.25 per day (excluding China)
World Bank estimates
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
East Asia
Latin America
Percent in Poverty<$1.25 per day
World Bank estimates
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
How did we survive?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Economics
1. Market responses2. Innovation3. Globalization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Economics
1. Market responses2. Innovation3. Globalization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Vietnam Food Production1961=100
Populati
on
Tota
l Foo
d
Prod
uctio
n
Per Capita Food
Production
1981-89 liberalizat
ion
Food and Agriculture Organization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Economics
1. Market responses2. Innovation3. Globalization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Norman Borlaug, “Father of the Green Revolution”
1970 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Rice-World
Wheat-World
Productivity:Yield per hectare
1961=100
Food and Agriculture Organization
Wheat-India
Rice-India
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Economics
1. Market responses2. Innovation3. Globalization
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Exports as % of GDP
Low and Middle Income Countries
High income countries
World Bank estimates
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Demography
1. Urbanization2. Fertility decline3. Investments in children
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Demography
1. Urbanization2. Fertility decline3. Investments in children
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Urban and Rural PopulationWorld (billions)
Total
Urban
Rural
UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Demography
1. Urbanization2. Fertility decline3. Investments in children
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Total Fertility RateWorld
Decline of 82% relative to replacement fertility
Decline of 47% from 1950 to 2010
UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Total Fertility Rate
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia
Southeast Asia
South Asia
Latin America
UN Population Division Estimates - 2010 revision
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Why did fertility fall so rapidly?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
TFR by Wanted TFR74 DHS countriesN=185
TFR=1.07(0.12)+0.98(0.033)WTFR
R2=.83
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Change in TFR by Change in Wanted TFR43 DHS countriesN=95
TFR=-0.028(0.006)+0.829(0.085)WTFR
R2=.466
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Demography
1. Urbanization2. Fertility decline3. Investments in children
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Percentage of cohort with primary schooling, Brazil
Female
Male
Census data via IPUMS-International
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Why did schooling
increase so rapidly?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS)University of Cape Town – University of
MichiganMajor support from NICHD
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Enrollment rate of Africans who have not completed secondary
schoolCape Area Panel Study 2005
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Larger Cohorts and Smaller
Families
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
The Transition from Quantity to
Quality
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Years of schooling of 16-17 year-olds, Brazil
1960
1970
1980
1991
2000
Census data via IPUMS-International
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Years of schooling of 16-17 year-olds, Brazil
1960
1970
1980
1991
2000
0.98 increase
3.34 increase
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Census data via IPUMS-International
Have we really survived?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Mean annual temperature (Fahrenheit)Global average, 1880-2010
Source: NASA
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Sulfur Dioxide Emissions, U.S., 1900-2005(1900=100)
Source: Smith et al 2011
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
Source: World Bank
Food Price Index(2000=100)
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
What will 2050 be like?
David Lam, How the world survived the population bomb, University of Michigan Population Studies Center, 2011
