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A statistical analysis of consumers’ perceptions towards automated vehicles and their intended adoption
• Web-based stated-preference surveys were conducted in 2015 on a university sample (USF Tampa) and non-university sample (members of AAA south)
• The research team elicited information on consumers’ perceptions, their intended adoption, and anticipated impacts of AVs (and SAVs) on travel behavior
Introduction
Market Segment Analysis
• Previous analyses assist in better understanding the makeup of each consumer market segment
• Correlations between segment-wise perceptions and adoption are helpful but they do not address influence of various factors
• In order to better understand the influence of every factor, we estimate ordered probit models (with random parameters)
Understanding Intended Adoption
Nikhil Menon1, Yu Zhang2, Abdul Pinjari3, and Fred Mannering2
1Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida
3Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
• Gender – significant but has a variable impact on AV adoptiono males in well-informed market segment – more likely to adopt AVs;
males in concerns-dominated market segment – less likely to adopt AVs
o gender insignificant in benefits-dominated & uncertain segments• Different generations behave differently on AV adoption
o not all millennials & baby boomers behave the same way in a benefits-dominated market segment
o Great-generation less likely to adopt AVs in a benefits-dominated & well-informed market segment; more likely in concerns-dominated market segment
o generational-level influence absent in uncertain market segments• Household income has a significant influence on AV adoption
o low-income HH – less likely to adopt AVs in uncertain & concerns-dominated market segments; high-Income HH – complex in well-informed
• Current vehicle ownership provides interesting insights on AV adoptiono multi-vehicle HH in benefits-dominated & uncertain – less likely to
adopt AVs possible entrenchment to the driving culture o not all zero vehicle HH in well-informed market segments behave
same way• Recent vehicular purchase has important indicators for potential
adoptiono new vehicle purchase in benefits-dominated & well-informed –
more likely to adopt AVs – possible presence of safety/automation features
o used vehicles – less likely to adopt AVs
Main Findings
Autonomous vehicle consumer market
segments
Probability of respondents belonging to a particular market segment make up
Factors influencing adoption of
autonomous vehicles
Two-step cluster analysis
Multinomial logit model
Ordered probit (with random parameter)
model
Description of Autonomous
Vehicles Perception Variables
Benefits-
Dominated
Cluster
(N=513)
Uncertain
Cluster
(N=732)
Well-
Informed
Cluster
(N=811)
Concerns-
Dominated
Cluster
(N=602)
Fewer traffic crashes and
increased roadway safety4.65 3.08 4.14 2.47
Less stressful driving
experience4.62 2.89 4.21 2.27
Less traffic congestion 4.18 2.46 3.35 1.89
More productive (than driving)
use of travel time4.57 2.97 4.24 2.57
Increased fuel efficiency 4.21 3.07 3.85 2.69
Safety of the vehicle occupants
and other road users such as
pedestrians, bicyclists
2.35 3.43 4.26 4.43
System/equipment failure or
AV system hacking2.77 3.48 4.4 4.73
Performance in (or response to)
unexpected traffic situations,
poor weather conditions
2.82 3.49 4.44 4.64
Difficulty in determining who is
liable in the event of a crash2.46 3.15 3.63 4.52
Privacy risks from data tracking
on my travel locations and
speed
2.68 3.07 3.67 4.59
Loss in human driving skill over
time2.46 3.34 3.45 4.49
Likelihood of adopting
autonomous vehicles when
they become available in the
market
4.24 2.54 3.39 1.74
Preliminary (Descriptive) Results
0.53
0.362
0.4690.534
0.691
SUR
VEY
(N
=26
58
)
MIL
LEN
NIA
LS (
N=6
19
)
GEN
ERA
TIO
N X
(N
=40
9)
BA
BY
BO
OM
ERS
(N=8
43
)
GR
EAT
GEN
ERA
TIO
N
(N=7
87
)
Male Respondents
0.0960.114
0.079
0.17
0.13
0.087
0.029
SUR
VEY
(N
=26
58
)
FEM
ALE
S (N
=12
48
)
MA
LES
(N=1
41
0)
MIL
LEN
NIA
LS (
N=6
19
)
GEN
ERA
TIO
N X
(N
=40
9)
BA
BY
BO
OM
ERS
(N=8
43
)
GR
EAT
GEN
ERA
TIO
N
(N=7
87
)
Hispanic/Black Respondents
0.2640.342
0.195
0.595
0.188 0.135 0.183
SUR
VEY
(N
=26
58
)
FEM
ALE
S (N
=12
48
)
MA
LES
(N=1
41
0)
MIL
LEN
NIA
LS (
N=6
19
)
GEN
ERA
TIO
N X
(N
=40
9)
BA
BY
BO
OM
ERS
(N=8
43
)
GR
EAT
GEN
ERA
TIO
N
(N=7
87
)
Low-Income Households (< $50,000)
0.0840.114
0.057
0.227
0.108
0.036 0.01
SUR
VEY
(N
=26
58
)
FEM
ALE
S (N
=12
48
)
MA
LES
(N=1
41
0)
MIL
LEN
NIA
LS (
N=6
19
)
GEN
ERA
TIO
N X
(N
=40
9)
BA
BY
BO
OM
ERS
(N=8
43
)
GR
EAT
GEN
ERA
TIO
N
(N=7
87
)
Zero Vehicle Households
20.5 26.12 15.53 26.05 22.98 18.01 17.53
73.48 69.47 77.02 67.8 69.44 74.41 79.03
6.02 4.41 7.45 6.15 7.58 7.58 3.43
Familiarity with AVs
Not at all familiar Slightly/ Moderately Familiar Extremely Familiar
17.9839.92 23.89 20.35 35.14 18.81 23.18
22.46
25.5118.89 22.08
27.6526.9
36.27
59.5634.57
57.22 57.5637.21
54.29 40.56
FEW
ER T
RA
FFIC
C
RA
SHES
/IN
CR
EA
SED
RO
AD
WA
Y SA
FETY
LESS
TR
AFF
IC
CO
NG
ESTI
ON
LESS
STR
ESSF
UL
DR
IVIN
G
EXP
ERIE
NC
E
MO
RE
PR
OD
UC
TIV
E (T
HA
N D
RIV
ING
) U
SE O
F TR
AV
EL …
LOW
ER C
AR
IN
SUR
AN
CE
RA
TES
INC
REA
SED
FU
EL
EFFI
CIE
NC
Y
LOW
ER V
EHIC
LE
EMIS
SIO
NS
Consumers' Opinions on Potential Benefits with AVs (n=2658)
Unlikely Unsure Likely
4.93 2.56 3.05 10.5 11.17 10.01 8.62
51.77 45.75 45.71 43.45 47.67 43.79 43.72
28.44 36.64 35.74 31.23 27.95 30.62 26.22
14.86 15.05 15.5 14.82 13.21 15.58 21.44
SAFE
TY O
F TH
E A
V
OC
CU
PA
NTS
, O
THER
RO
AD
…
SYST
EM/E
QU
IPM
ENT
FAIL
UR
E
PER
FOR
MA
NC
E IN
U
NEX
PEC
TED
TR
AFF
IC/P
OO
…
GIV
ING
UP
C
ON
TRO
L O
F TH
E ST
EER
ING
W
HEE
L TO
…
LOSS
IN
HU
MA
N
DR
IVIN
G S
KIL
L O
VER
TIM
E
PR
IVA
CY
RIS
KS
FRO
M D
ATA
TR
AC
KIN
G
DIF
FIC
ULT
Y IN
D
ETER
MIN
ING
LI
AB
ILIT
Y D
UR
ING
…
Consumers' Opinions on Potential Concerns with AVs (n=2658)
Not at all concerned Slightly/Moderately concerned
Extremely concerned Unsure
38.3 37.9 38.65 31.88 34.47 39.45 44.09
25.09 26.84 23.55 23.95 24.94 23.7 27.57
36.61 35.26 37.8 44.17 40.59 36.85 28.34
Likelihood of using AVs when they become available (before)
Unlikely Unsure Likely
39.24 39.42 39.08 33.33 35.94 39.21 45.62
19.86 21.55 18.37 21.04 18.58 19.91 19.57
40.9 39.02 42.55 45.63 45.48 40.88 34.82
Likelihood of using AVs when they become available (after)
Unlikely Unsure Likely
0.323 0.3480.302
0.4640.403
0.315
0.18
SUR
VEY
(N
=26
58
)
FEM
ALE
S (N
=12
48
)
MA
LES
(N=1
41
0)
MIL
LEN
NIA
LS (
N=6
19
)
GEN
ERA
TIO
N X
(N
=40
9)
BA
BY
BO
OM
ERS
(N=8
43
)
GR
EAT
GEN
ERA
TIO
N
(N=7
87
)
Total Daily Travel Time 60+ minutes
0.715
0.685
0.742
0.647
0.726
0.76
0.715
SUR
VEY
(N
=26
58
)
FEM
ALE
S (N
=12
48
)
MA
LES
(N=1
41
0)
MIL
LEN
NIA
LS (
N=6
19
)
GEN
ERA
TIO
N X
(N
=40
9)
BA
BY
BO
OM
ERS
(N=8
43
)
GR
EAT
GEN
ERA
TIO
N
(N=7
87
)
Crash Involvement
0.678 0.720.64
0.793 0.8390.769
0.405
SUR
VEY
(N
=26
58
)
FEM
ALE
S (N
=12
48
)
MA
LES
(N=1
41
0)
MIL
LEN
NIA
LS (
N=6
19
)
GEN
ERA
TIO
N X
(N
=40
9)
BA
BY
BO
OM
ERS
(N=8
43
)
GR
EAT
GEN
ERA
TIO
N
(N=7
87
)
Drive Alone Commuters
Market Segment Composition Model
Intended Adoption Model
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