A statistical analysis of consumers’ perceptions towards automated vehicles and their intended adoption

• Web-based stated-preference surveys were conducted in 2015 on a university sample (USF Tampa) and non-university sample (members of AAA south)

• The research team elicited information on consumers’ perceptions, their intended adoption, and anticipated impacts of AVs (and SAVs) on travel behavior

Introduction

Market Segment Analysis

• Previous analyses assist in better understanding the makeup of each consumer market segment

• Correlations between segment-wise perceptions and adoption are helpful but they do not address influence of various factors

• In order to better understand the influence of every factor, we estimate ordered probit models (with random parameters)

Understanding Intended Adoption

Nikhil Menon1, Yu Zhang2, Abdul Pinjari3, and Fred Mannering2

1Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida

3Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore

• Gender – significant but has a variable impact on AV adoptiono males in well-informed market segment – more likely to adopt AVs;

males in concerns-dominated market segment – less likely to adopt AVs

o gender insignificant in benefits-dominated & uncertain segments• Different generations behave differently on AV adoption

o not all millennials & baby boomers behave the same way in a benefits-dominated market segment

o Great-generation less likely to adopt AVs in a benefits-dominated & well-informed market segment; more likely in concerns-dominated market segment

o generational-level influence absent in uncertain market segments• Household income has a significant influence on AV adoption

o low-income HH – less likely to adopt AVs in uncertain & concerns-dominated market segments; high-Income HH – complex in well-informed

• Current vehicle ownership provides interesting insights on AV adoptiono multi-vehicle HH in benefits-dominated & uncertain – less likely to

adopt AVs possible entrenchment to the driving culture o not all zero vehicle HH in well-informed market segments behave

same way• Recent vehicular purchase has important indicators for potential

adoptiono new vehicle purchase in benefits-dominated & well-informed –

more likely to adopt AVs – possible presence of safety/automation features

o used vehicles – less likely to adopt AVs

Main Findings

Autonomous vehicle consumer market

segments

Probability of respondents belonging to a particular market segment make up

Factors influencing adoption of

autonomous vehicles

Two-step cluster analysis

Multinomial logit model

Ordered probit (with random parameter)

model

Description of Autonomous

Vehicles Perception Variables

Benefits-

Dominated

Cluster

(N=513)

Uncertain

Cluster

(N=732)

Well-

Informed

Cluster

(N=811)

Concerns-

Dominated

Cluster

(N=602)

Fewer traffic crashes and

increased roadway safety4.65 3.08 4.14 2.47

Less stressful driving

experience4.62 2.89 4.21 2.27

Less traffic congestion 4.18 2.46 3.35 1.89

More productive (than driving)

use of travel time4.57 2.97 4.24 2.57

Increased fuel efficiency 4.21 3.07 3.85 2.69

Safety of the vehicle occupants

and other road users such as

pedestrians, bicyclists

2.35 3.43 4.26 4.43

System/equipment failure or

AV system hacking2.77 3.48 4.4 4.73

Performance in (or response to)

unexpected traffic situations,

poor weather conditions

2.82 3.49 4.44 4.64

Difficulty in determining who is

liable in the event of a crash2.46 3.15 3.63 4.52

Privacy risks from data tracking

on my travel locations and

speed

2.68 3.07 3.67 4.59

Loss in human driving skill over

time2.46 3.34 3.45 4.49

Likelihood of adopting

autonomous vehicles when

they become available in the

market

4.24 2.54 3.39 1.74

Preliminary (Descriptive) Results

0.53

0.362

0.4690.534

0.691

SUR

VEY

(N

=26

58

)

MIL

LEN

NIA

LS (

N=6

19

)

GEN

ERA

TIO

N X

(N

=40

9)

BA

BY

BO

OM

ERS

(N=8

43

)

GR

EAT

GEN

ERA

TIO

N

(N=7

87

)

Male Respondents

0.0960.114

0.079

0.17

0.13

0.087

0.029

SUR

VEY

(N

=26

58

)

FEM

ALE

S (N

=12

48

)

MA

LES

(N=1

41

0)

MIL

LEN

NIA

LS (

N=6

19

)

GEN

ERA

TIO

N X

(N

=40

9)

BA

BY

BO

OM

ERS

(N=8

43

)

GR

EAT

GEN

ERA

TIO

N

(N=7

87

)

Hispanic/Black Respondents

0.2640.342

0.195

0.595

0.188 0.135 0.183

SUR

VEY

(N

=26

58

)

FEM

ALE

S (N

=12

48

)

MA

LES

(N=1

41

0)

MIL

LEN

NIA

LS (

N=6

19

)

GEN

ERA

TIO

N X

(N

=40

9)

BA

BY

BO

OM

ERS

(N=8

43

)

GR

EAT

GEN

ERA

TIO

N

(N=7

87

)

Low-Income Households (< $50,000)

0.0840.114

0.057

0.227

0.108

0.036 0.01

SUR

VEY

(N

=26

58

)

FEM

ALE

S (N

=12

48

)

MA

LES

(N=1

41

0)

MIL

LEN

NIA

LS (

N=6

19

)

GEN

ERA

TIO

N X

(N

=40

9)

BA

BY

BO

OM

ERS

(N=8

43

)

GR

EAT

GEN

ERA

TIO

N

(N=7

87

)

Zero Vehicle Households

20.5 26.12 15.53 26.05 22.98 18.01 17.53

73.48 69.47 77.02 67.8 69.44 74.41 79.03

6.02 4.41 7.45 6.15 7.58 7.58 3.43

Familiarity with AVs

Not at all familiar Slightly/ Moderately Familiar Extremely Familiar

17.9839.92 23.89 20.35 35.14 18.81 23.18

22.46

25.5118.89 22.08

27.6526.9

36.27

59.5634.57

57.22 57.5637.21

54.29 40.56

FEW

ER T

RA

FFIC

C

RA

SHES

/IN

CR

EA

SED

RO

AD

WA

Y SA

FETY

LESS

TR

AFF

IC

CO

NG

ESTI

ON

LESS

STR

ESSF

UL

DR

IVIN

G

EXP

ERIE

NC

E

MO

RE

PR

OD

UC

TIV

E (T

HA

N D

RIV

ING

) U

SE O

F TR

AV

EL …

LOW

ER C

AR

IN

SUR

AN

CE

RA

TES

INC

REA

SED

FU

EL

EFFI

CIE

NC

Y

LOW

ER V

EHIC

LE

EMIS

SIO

NS

Consumers' Opinions on Potential Benefits with AVs (n=2658)

Unlikely Unsure Likely

4.93 2.56 3.05 10.5 11.17 10.01 8.62

51.77 45.75 45.71 43.45 47.67 43.79 43.72

28.44 36.64 35.74 31.23 27.95 30.62 26.22

14.86 15.05 15.5 14.82 13.21 15.58 21.44

SAFE

TY O

F TH

E A

V

OC

CU

PA

NTS

, O

THER

RO

AD

…

SYST

EM/E

QU

IPM

ENT

FAIL

UR

E

PER

FOR

MA

NC

E IN

U

NEX

PEC

TED

TR

AFF

IC/P

OO

…

GIV

ING

UP

C

ON

TRO

L O

F TH

E ST

EER

ING

W

HEE

L TO

…

LOSS

IN

HU

MA

N

DR

IVIN

G S

KIL

L O

VER

TIM

E

PR

IVA

CY

RIS

KS

FRO

M D

ATA

TR

AC

KIN

G

DIF

FIC

ULT

Y IN

D

ETER

MIN

ING

LI

AB

ILIT

Y D

UR

ING

…

Consumers' Opinions on Potential Concerns with AVs (n=2658)

Not at all concerned Slightly/Moderately concerned

Extremely concerned Unsure

38.3 37.9 38.65 31.88 34.47 39.45 44.09

25.09 26.84 23.55 23.95 24.94 23.7 27.57

36.61 35.26 37.8 44.17 40.59 36.85 28.34

Likelihood of using AVs when they become available (before)

Unlikely Unsure Likely

39.24 39.42 39.08 33.33 35.94 39.21 45.62

19.86 21.55 18.37 21.04 18.58 19.91 19.57

40.9 39.02 42.55 45.63 45.48 40.88 34.82

Likelihood of using AVs when they become available (after)

Unlikely Unsure Likely

0.323 0.3480.302

0.4640.403

0.315

0.18

SUR

VEY

(N

=26

58

)

FEM

ALE

S (N

=12

48

)

MA

LES

(N=1

41

0)

MIL

LEN

NIA

LS (

N=6

19

)

GEN

ERA

TIO

N X

(N

=40

9)

BA

BY

BO

OM

ERS

(N=8

43

)

GR

EAT

GEN

ERA

TIO

N

(N=7

87

)

Total Daily Travel Time 60+ minutes

0.715

0.685

0.742

0.647

0.726

0.76

0.715

SUR

VEY

(N

=26

58

)

FEM

ALE

S (N

=12

48

)

MA

LES

(N=1

41

0)

MIL

LEN

NIA

LS (

N=6

19

)

GEN

ERA

TIO

N X

(N

=40

9)

BA

BY

BO

OM

ERS

(N=8

43

)

GR

EAT

GEN

ERA

TIO

N

(N=7

87

)

Crash Involvement

0.678 0.720.64

0.793 0.8390.769

0.405

SUR

VEY

(N

=26

58

)

FEM

ALE

S (N

=12

48

)

MA

LES

(N=1

41

0)

MIL

LEN

NIA

LS (

N=6

19

)

GEN

ERA

TIO

N X

(N

=40

9)

BA

BY

BO

OM

ERS

(N=8

43

)

GR

EAT

GEN

ERA

TIO

N

(N=7

87

)

Drive Alone Commuters

Market Segment Composition Model

Intended Adoption Model