A New Chinese Market Bonanza in the Making? A New Chinese Market Bonanza in the Making? Diverse,...

A New Chinese Market Bonanza in the Making? A New Chinese Market Bonanza in the Making?

Diverse, Gigantic, Hi-growth, Needy, and Unpretentious

Jim Cook

China-phile since 1985

Sponsored by : The Confucius Institute Wayne State University

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 2 of 16

April 24, 2014

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 3 of 16

April 24, 2014

Urban China’s Values & Exemplars

Rural China’s Values & Exemplars

The Urban Rural Divides & Consequences

Central Government Response & Hopes

Potential Impacts on You Personally

AgendaAgenda

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 4 of 16

April 24, 2014

Urban China – Familiar ValuesUrban China – Familiar Values

Source: The Rural Way (农道 ) © 2011 by: Sun Jun - 孙君

Behaviorial Drivers of the Chinese Cities’ dwellers

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 5 of 16

April 24, 2014

Urban ExemplarsUrban Exemplars

Zhōu1 Ēn1Lái2 ( 周恩来 )Jiǎng3 Jiè4Shí2 ( 蒋介石 )

Chang Kai-Shek(in Cantonese)

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 6 of 16

April 24, 2014

Rural China’s Cultural ValuesRural China’s Cultural Values

Source: The Rural Way (Nóng2 Dào4 - 农道 ) © 2011 by: Sūn1 Jūn1 - 孙君

Behaviorial Drivers of the Chinese Countryside’s Farmers

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 7 of 16

April 24, 2014

Rural ExemplarsRural Exemplars

Máo2 Zé2Dōng1 ( 毛澤東 ) Péng2 Dé4Huái2 ( 彭德怀 )

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 8 of 16

April 24, 2014

Urban Rural DivideUrban Rural Divide

Per capita net annual income (2009) divide:

Urban: 17,175 Yuan ($2,525) Rural: 5,153 Yuan ($758) Note: 30% of Urban

Education divide

Digital divide

Land confiscation

Polluted, Arid

Being abandoned

In 2004, 2000 laid off people barricaded a street

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 9 of 16

April 24, 2014

Educational Divide – Educational Divide – High School DataHigh School Data

Source:

Source: Gāo1Kǎo3 高考 takers 2003

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 10 of 16

April 24, 2014

Educational Divide – Educational Divide – College DataCollege Data

Note: Only 7 rural, minority, women attend Peking University & TsingHua! Source: REAP of Stanford U.

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 11 of 16

April 24, 2014

Digital Divide - Digital Divide - DataData

Source: Rural Education Action Project conducted at Stanford University (2010)

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 12 of 16

April 24, 2014

ShanDong, DongLu VillageShanDong, DongLu Village

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 13 of 16

April 24, 2014

Mass unrest and sporadic instability

Migrant and unemployed workers

Resentful of regional imbalances’ wealth gap

Hù4Kǒu3 户口 discrimination against rural families

Problems associated with one child policy

Diminishing faith in the system/Party

Resulting in …Resulting in …

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 14 of 16

April 24, 2014

Oct. 2005, “New Rural Development” became a national strategy Charged with enhancing productivity, raising living standards, improving rural

culture, & promoting neat & clean villages with democratic administrations

“The Three Rural Issues” 三农问题 : Farmers, Agriculture, & Land Funding >$1 Trillion over 20 years; the biggest project in the world? Numerous initiatives with regrettable failure rates (per The Rural Way) Confronted by structural flaws:

Urban Policy wonks making decisions about what’s good for Rural Folks Central bias to “one size fits all” when villages are intrinsically idiosyncratic Government jealousies as this cuts across several ministerial jurisdictions Agenda to modernize the countryside like the city – cars, appliances, order Agenda to have countryside demand make up for loss of export demand Lost sight of environmental pollution and rural folks own wants and needs!

Central Government ResponseCentral Government Response

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 15 of 16

April 24, 2014

Entrepreneuring opportunity: Hi Needs, Lo Competition, Lo Cost Entry, No Hi-Tech Hurdles (much like the East 30 years ago)!

NGO employment opportunity: Excellent Charter Alignment, Highly Active, Well Funded, Ineffectual to date (needs new approach).

Personal employment opportunity: Recognized need for passion and creativity (e.g., entrepreneuring, policies, …), Receptive to leapfrog technology (esp. Medical, IT, agriculture, “green”), Unrecognized need for Expert Systems and Real-time local auction systems, Obvious need for technical and vocational teachers (in Chinese, mostly).

Most of all, an unparalleled opportunity to immerse yourself in an historic quality-of-life raising experience!

Potential Impacts on You PersonallyPotential Impacts on You Personally

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 16 of 16

April 24, 2014

Questions and Comments

Take this with you: 三 农 问 题 (Sān1 Nóng2 Wèn4Tí2)

Thank you, in particular, Dr. Li Liang, for hosting and encouraging this topic!

This (4.6 MB) presentation is on the Internet at:

http://cha4mot.com/China-rural.ppt

Related links: http://cha4mot.com/crr http://cha4mot.com/theruralway.html

We’re Open (for discussion)!We’re Open (for discussion)!

Confucius Institute

Wayne State UniversitySlide 17 of 16

April 24, 2014