View
215
Download
3
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
A demographic dynamics system for A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazon’s municipalitiesthe Brazilian Amazon’s municipalities
Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia
Britaldo Silveira Soares-FilhoDaniel Nepstad
Universidade Federal
de Minas Gerais The Woods Hole Research Center
To develop a model to project urban and To develop a model to project urban and rural populations for the Brazilian rural populations for the Brazilian Amazon’s municipalities by integrating Amazon’s municipalities by integrating data on data on mortalitymortality, , fertilityfertility, and , and migrationmigration
Methodological steps:Methodological steps:
Estimation of crude death rate (mortality), crude birth rate Estimation of crude death rate (mortality), crude birth rate
(natality), out-migration and urbanization rates by Amazonian (natality), out-migration and urbanization rates by Amazonian
municipality and Brazilian Statesmunicipality and Brazilian States
Projecting the above estimates using logistic functionProjecting the above estimates using logistic function
Determining the origin-destiny matrix for migratory Determining the origin-destiny matrix for migratory
movements between the above defined spatial units. movements between the above defined spatial units.
Model implementation in a system thinking software Model implementation in a system thinking software
(VENSIM) (VENSIM)
Model validation versus 2000’s IBGE data and other Model validation versus 2000’s IBGE data and other
projection models’ outputsprojection models’ outputs
The annual projections from 1995 to 2035 are based mainly on demographic data from 1991’s and 2000’s IBGE census.
sxx bYaY
])1([ln5,0 x
x
xY
])1([ln5,0
s
x
x
sxY
AxJ
AxJ
AxJA
J P
PEMRCDR
Crude Death RateCrude Death Rate
AxJ
AsJ
AcJA
xJAJ P
TFRTFRf
CBR
Crude Birth RateCrude Birth Rate
Urbanization RateUrbanization Rate
1
/1
x
xAJ
t
xAJ
u
AJ
t
AJ
u
aJ
PP
PP
UR
mJ
mJ
mJ CMRCBRVGR
mJ
mJ
mJ VGRTGRMR
Vegetative Growth RateVegetative Growth Rate
In-migration RateIn-migration Rate
Out-migration RateOut-migration Rate
IJaI
mI
mI
AI
AIJ QERCMRCBRPER ))((1(1
Res
iden
ce in
199
5R
esid
ence
in 1
995
out-migrantsout-migrantsResidence in 2000Residence in 2000
Migration matrix (Q)Migration matrix (Q)in
-mig
ran
tsin
-mig
ran
ts
)(1 ktwis
ite
YYYY
Logistic FunctionLogistic Function
IJaI
mI
mII
aJ
mJ
mJJJ QERCMRCBRPERCMRCBRPP ))((1())(1( 199519951996
System equationsSystem equations
IJaI
mI
mII
aJ
mJ
mJJJ QERCMRCBRPERCMRCBRPP ))((1())(1( 199619961997
IJaI
mI
mII
aJ
mJ
mJJJ QERCMRCBRPERCMRCBRPP ))((1())(1( 199719971998
IJaI
mI
mII
aJ
mJ
mJJJ QERCMRCBRPERCMRCBRPP ))((1())(1( 199819981999
IJaI
mI
mII
aJ
mJ
mJJJ QERCMRCBRPERCMRCBRPP ))((1())(1( 199919992000
y = 0,9947x
R2 = 0,9999
1,E+03
1,E+04
1,E+05
1,E+06
1,E+07
1,E+08
1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06 1,E+07 1,E+08
Resident Population
Est
imat
ed P
op
ula
tio
n
y = 0,9947x
R2 = 0,9999
1,E+03
1,E+04
1,E+05
1,E+06
1,E+07
1,E+08
1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06 1,E+07 1,E+08
Resident Population
Est
imat
ed P
op
ula
tio
n
Model output versus Model output versus 2000’s IBGE data2000’s IBGE data
ValidatiValidationon
Urban population
4,500,000
0
4,500,000
Rural population
Model outputs Model outputs aggregated by aggregated by
subregion subregion
The model is designed to handle various The model is designed to handle various scenarios of regional migrationscenarios of regional migration
Population growth and migration represent an important Population growth and migration represent an important underlying cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. underlying cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.
Linking population to Linking population to deforestationdeforestation
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
rural polulation density+5*rural polulation density*(1-%land of small landholders)
Dens
ity o
f def
ores
ted
land
CC=0.75 CC=0.75 n=382n=382
Anthropic pressure - a synthetic Anthropic pressure - a synthetic index for deforestation potentialindex for deforestation potential
PORTO VELHO
JI-PARANA
VILHENA
ARIQUEMESRIO BRANCO
CRUZEIRO DO SUL
MANAUSTEFE
HUMAITA
MAUES
BOA VISTA
BELEM
SANTAREM
MARABA
TUCURUI
ALTAMIRA
CAPANEMA
ITAITUBA
PARAGOMINAS
MACAPA
PALMAS
ARAGUAINA
SAO LUIS
IMPERATRIZ
BALSAS
CUIABA
RONDONOPOLIS
SINOP
CACERES BARRA DO GARCAS
ALTA FLORESTA
SORRISO
0.8-10.6-0.80.4-060.2-040.0-02
0 .82 to 1 .0
0 .54 to 0 .82
0 .29 to 0 .54
0 .1 to 0 .29
0 to 0 .1non-data
A component to be used to project A component to be used to project deforestation within SimAmazoniadeforestation within SimAmazonia
PORTO VELHOPORTO VELHO
JI-PARANAJI-PARANA
VILHENAVILHENA
ARIQUEMESARIQUEMESRIO BRANCORIO BRANCO
CRUZEIRO DO SULCRUZEIRO DO SUL
MANAUSMANAUSTEFETEFE
HUMAITAHUMAITA
MAUESMAUES
BOA VISTABOA VISTA
BELEMBELEM
SANTAREMSANTAREM
MARABAMARABA
TUCURUITUCURUI
ALTAMIRAALTAMIRA
ITAITUBAITAITUBA
BRAGANCABRAGANCA
PARAGOMINASPARAGOMINAS
MACAPAMACAPA
PALMASPALMAS
ARAGUAINAARAGUAINA
SAO LUISSAO LUIS
CUIABACUIABA
RONDONOPOLISRONDONOPOLIS
SINOPSINOP
CACERESCACERES BARRA DO GARCASBARRA DO GARCAS
ALTA FLORESTAALTA FLORESTA
SORRISOSORRISO
density of deforesteddensity of deforested
anthropic pressureanthropic pressure
Garcia R, Soares-Filho, Swayer, D. Dimensões sócio-econômicas e movimentos populacionais: uma regionalização da Amazônia brasileira. ABEP, 2004
A demographic dynamics system for A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazon’s municipalitiesthe Brazilian Amazon’s municipalities
That’s all, folks…Thanks!That’s all, folks…Thanks!
Universidade Federal
de Minas Gerais The Woods Hole Research Center
Recommended