2019. 7. 18 (목 - home.imeritz.com

Preview:

Citation preview


. 2019 7 18 (DR, CB, IPO, ) 6 . 2019 7 18 1% . 2019 7 18 . , .(: ) . . . .
2019 7 18() MERITZ Strategy Daily 2.0
Meritz Research 2
,
‘ ’ ‘ ’
: 1) , 2) (2012)
,
‘’ ‘’ .
,
.
.
11
. ,
. 2017 .
(2016), (2017)
‘ ’ ( ) .
1 : .

'17.10 , , .
’18.11 , , .
’19.1.23 ,
3 24 , , (NEC) NEC
7 1 , ()
7 2 ,
7 4 , 3 : , ,
7 9 , WTO WTO /
7 18 7 17 , 3 . " "
7 21 . 2/3
7 24 ,
8 22 , 7 24 , 21 8 22
:
Meritz Research 3
,
.
‘ ’
‘’. 3 NEC(,
) NEC ‘
’ .
, EU
.
. .
, (National Defense Authorization Act,
NDAA) ‘ (Export Control Reform Act, ECRA)’ ‘
(FIRRMA)’ . ECRA
(Foundational Technology) , FIRRMA
. ,
. , , 8
.

, ,
.
. ‘’
‘ ’ .
‘ ()’
.
: ((emerging technology) , 2018),

Meritz Research 4
vs. ‘ ’ ‘ ’
‘’ ‘ ’
. .

.

.
,
.
.
. (Process
Materials) (Parts) ,
, , .
. (58%)
(42%) (: ‘
2019).
. ,
.
.
/

: Chuck
: CVD Ring
: Probe-card, Tester
Test Package
Meritz Research 5
,
63% , 80~90%
.
, ,
90% , , (CMP, Chemical Mechanical
Polishing) 75~85% , 10~20%
( ASML , / Applied Materials
). .

, 60% ( 30%,
Sumco 27%). .

, ,
.
1
()


ASML, , Stepper, Scanner Track
10% 0%
Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, Applied Materials
Oxide, Poly, Metal Etcher
85% 50%
TEL, DNS Cleaner, Asher ,
85% 65%
CMP Applied Materials CMP 75% 60%
Applied Materials, Axcelis Ion Implanter
20% 0%
Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron
CVD, ALD, PVD (, )
90% 65%
Furnace, RTP ,
90% 70%
Wafer, Inspection, Metrology (, , )
35% 30%

via ,
90% 60%
Advantest, Teradyne , IC 80% 60%
: , ‘ , 2017’,
2019 7 18() MERITZ Strategy Daily 2.0
Meritz Research 6

, Blank Mask Toppan(), Photronic(), DNP(), Hoya(), ()
PR, SOC, SOD, JSR(), Dow(), Fuji() 7
Wet Chemica( )¹ ,
((), (), () )
² , , 4 (Tosoh() )
CMP CMP : Cabot() 40%, : Dow Electronic Materials() (80%)
/ , Cu-solvent,
Ceramic Parts (Si), (SiC), (Al), Quartz → OEM
: 1) , : 2) Sputtering target
: IHS, SKC(2017),
‘ ’
‘(ex. )’ .
. ‘’ . ,
(RCA, 1 )
.
, ,
.
. .
3 ,

2001 2010 2017 2001 2010 2017 2001 2010 2017 2001 2010 2017
1.181 1.522 1.371 0.770 1.079 1.002 1.362 1.545 1.358 0.881 1.176 1.032
- 1.377 1.216 1.082 0.811 0.792 0.775 1.035 1.279 1.116 0.959 1.122 0.968
- 1.069 1.722 1.552 0.746 1.267 1.145 1.550 1.720 1.511 0.837 1.211 1.072

0.978 0.697 0.674 2.592 2.656 2.607 2.092 1.091 0.816 0.832 0.663 0.572
1.198 1.328 1.243 0.266 0.782 1.050 1.053 1.089 1.026 1.049 1.255 1.198
1.443 1.262 1.269 0.441 0.910 0.979 1.093 1.967 1.526 1.342 1.544 1.410
0.879 0.505 0.912 0.978 1.351 1.346 1.698 2.824 1.824 1.025 1.304 1.206
1 1.213 1.132 0.889 0.566 0.596 0.511 1.001 1.316 1.128 0.806 0.900 0.615

1.080 1.145 1.138 0.835 1.177 1.085 1.195 1.370 1.322 1.052 1.507 1.447
0.544 0.964 0.996 0.190 1.059 1.354 1.476 1.928 1.805 3.542 1.434 1.063
0.844 1.100 0.980 1.257 1.540 1.473 1.502 1.417 1.267 1.067 1.517 1.300
0.392 0.993 0.938 1.054 1.836 1.559 1.591 1.479 1.172 1.914 1.328 1.021
0.335 1.157 1.189 0.382 1.512 2.490 1.513 1.668 1.217 2.791 1.248 0.905
0.396 1.273 0.979 0.160 1.080 1.748 1.070 1.222 0.865 2.788 1.358 1.028
RCA 1 4 7 4 3 8 9 11 11 9 9 9 8
: (‘ , , ),
2019 7 18() MERITZ Strategy Daily 2.0
Meritz Research 7
( ‘’ , 2019.7.9)
. 1)
, 2)
.
, 2012
,
.
2012 11% ,
63.7%, 71.6% ,
2011 19.3% 2012 20.5% .
.
3 2012 4
: , ,
: UN Comtrade, KITA(2017.11 1, ‘ ),
: UN Comtrade, KITA(2017.11 1, ‘ ),
0 20 40 60 80

(%)
2019 7 18() MERITZ Strategy Daily 2.0
Meritz Research 8
:
1) 2011 , 2) 2012
.
. 2011
, 2010, 2012
.
?
, 2011
20.5%, 13.9% .
.
.
2011 3 11 ,
, ,
.
, IT(, TV, ), .
IT
2, 3 .
66%
5
: (2011a). ( , 2011),
2019 7 18() MERITZ Strategy Daily 2.0
Meritz Research 9
IT
.
? .
, 2011 1
2,851 (supplier) 22.4%
, 1 46.7%, 2
29.7%.
2010 , 2012
( ).
. 2000
~2010 ‘’
, 2011 , , ,
. , .
6 (2016 )
: (28 ),
21 , 24(
) ,
.
.
.

. .
2019 7 18() MERITZ Strategy Daily 2.0
Meritz Research 10
: Bloomberg,

. 6
121.5, 98.2 .
.
Macys Nordstrom 26.0%, 33.5%
Walmart Costco 23.2%, 37.8% .
?

. Macys Nordstrom
. Amazon
Macys Nordstrom
.
.
Walmart Costco Amazon
. Walmart
Amazon
. - . Walmart
, Costco

.

FAANG
,
.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
()
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
('16.1.1=100)
2019 7 18() MERITZ Strategy Daily 2.0
Meritz Research 11

(McKinsey)
. 5 1 8,500
, 7 7% .
,
.
big-tech
. , , ,
.

. .
.
.

.
5 1 8,500 , 7
7% .
. .
,
. ,
, .
big-tech
.
(invoice) , , ,
.
,
, .

.
2019 7 18() MERITZ Strategy Daily 2.0
Meritz Research 12
: McKinsey,
: Beyond banking ecosystem

‘ : Beyond banking ecosystem
for SMEs(Small and medium-sized enterprises)’ 3
.
1.

.

. GoBank Uber

. GoBank
Uber .
2.

.

Idea Bank Uber
.

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
Meritz Research 13
.
. OTP
Bank Royal Bank of Canada eBIZ Ownr
end-to-end
,
.
,
.
2 Ownr 1

Amazon Global , , SMEs
PayPal Global
Cumplo Chile
Holvi Finland One-stop
Ayden Netherlands SMEs
Klarna Sweden SMEs
Coconut UK SMEs P2P
: Ownr, : McKinsey,


.

.
.

.
,
.
,
.
2019 7 18() MERITZ Strategy Daily 2.0
Meritz Research 14
(MVP: Minimum Viable Product)
. ,

.

. ,
.
,
.
: 1) , 2)
. . .
.
,
.

, .

.
-
. 2~3
,
. 6~15
. , 3
.


. ,
.

. ,
.
2019 7 18() MERITZ Strategy Daily 2.0
Meritz Research 15
: McKinsey,

.
.

, .

.
: How banks can use ecosystems to win in the SME Market, McKinsey
3% 4%


Recommended