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HawaiianIslands (USA)
GLOBAL STRESS POINTS*Events posing the greatest threat tothe global economy in 2006
Event Impact(0-100)
Likelihood(0-100)
Oil price shock 70 50
Avian flu pandemic 55 55
Terrorists detonate dirty bomb 45 50
Instability in Central Asia 35 65
50 35War on Korean peninsula
War between China and Taiwan 70 20
20 65Serious disruption in the Balkans
Nationalist regime in Russia 30 30
25 30Financial collapse in Philippines
Collapse of euro 40 20
Islamisation of Pakistan 20 30
Fall of House of Saud inSaudi Arabia
35 15
Civil war in Iraq 25 20
U.S. strike on Iran 25 20
New sovereign default inArgentina
20 25
Drawing upon a worldwide network of more than 1,000 scholar-experts,Oxford Analytica’s Global Stress Points Matrix™ provides constantlyupdated assessments of the greatest threats to the global economy.The above analysis was current as of December 2005. For more recentanalysis, visit www.oxan.com.
*Patent pending
Gulf of A
den
Red Sea
The Gul f
Car ibbean Sea
NorthSea
TimorSea
TasmanSea
East S iber ian Sea
Ber ing Sea
EastChina
Sea
SouthChina
Sea
PACIFIC OCEAN
Mediterranean
Sea
Caspian Sea
Bay of Bengal
Arabian Sea
BlackSea
Gulf of Mexico
PACIFIC OCEAN
ATLANTIC OCEAN
INDIAN OCEAN
ARCTIC OCEAN
Sea ofOkhotsk
Barents Sea
Kara SeaLaptev Sea
Norwegian Sea
Beaufort Sea
Hudson Bay
Baffin Bay
Davis Strait
SOUTHERN OCEANScotia Sea
Ascension Island (UK)
St. Helena (UK)
ATLANTIC OCEAN
NetherlandsAntilles (NL)
FalklandIslands (UK)
Reunion Islands (Fr)
CaymanIslands (UK)
New Caledonia (Fr)
SAO TOME & PRINCIPE
Tahiti
Symbols illustrating significant risksCountry risk level
KEY
Low risk
Medium-low risk
Medium risk
Medium-high risk
High risk
POLITICAL INTERFERENCE:
SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION:
EXCHANGE TRANSFER:
SOVEREIGN NON-PAYMENT:
LEGAL & REGULATORY RISK:
Very high risk
Non Rated
Line of Control
POLITICAL VIOLENCE:
RISK OF DOING BUSINESS:
BANKING SECTOR VULNERABILITY:
INABILITY OF GOVERNMENT TO PROVIDE STIMULUS:
FOOD:
WATER:
GUYANA
FRENCH GUIANA (FR)
Cabinda (Angola)
Melilla (Sp)
Gibraltar (UK)Ceuta (Sp)
C A N A D A
U N I T E D S T A T E SO F A M E R I C A
M E X I C O
BELIZE
NICARAGUA
EL SALVADOR
HONDURAS
GUATEMALA
COSTA RICA
PANAMA
HAITI
DOMINICAN REP
JAMAICA
ANTIGUA & BARBUDAVIRGIN ISLANDS (US and UK)
DOMINICAANGUILLA
BARBADOS
GRENADA
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO
SURINAME
VENEZUELA
COLOMBIA
ECUADOR
PERU
BOLIVIA
B R A Z I L
PARAGUAY
URUGUAY
ARGENTINAC H I L E
G R E E N L A N D
ICELAND
UNITEDKINGDOMIRELAND
FRANCE
SPAIN
PORTUGAL
GERMANY
ITALY
DENMARK
NETHERLANDS
BELGIUM
LUXEMBOURG
LIECHTENSTEIN
SWITZERLAND
MONACOSAN MARINO
VATICANANDORRA
CZECH REPSLOVAKIA
AUSTRIA
HUNGARYSLOVENIA
POLAND
UKRAINE
BELARUS
LITHUANIA
LATVIA
ESTONIA
FINLAND
ROMANIA
MONTENEGRO
MOLDOVA
BULGARIA
BOSNIA
ALBANIA
SERBIA
F.Y.R. MACEDONIA
GREECE
MALTA
CROATIA
CYPRUSLEBANON
PALESTINE
ISRAEL
SYRIA
JORDAN
TURKEY
EGYPT
LIBYAALGERIA
TUNISIA
MALI
Western Sahara
NIGER
CHAD
SUDAN
SOUTHSUDAN
MAURITANIA
MOROCCO
CAPE VERDE
BURKINAFASO
BENIN
CAMEROON
GABON
CENTRALAFRICAN REPUBLIC
NIGERIA
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICOF CONGO
UGANDA
ZAMBIA
NAMIBIA
BOTSWANA
ZIMBABWE
SOUTHAFRICA
TANZANIA
MADAGASCAR
MOZAMBIQUE
ETHIOPIA
YEMEN
UAE
OMAN
BAHRAIN
QATAR
KUWAIT
SAUDIARABIA
I N D I A
BHUTAN
BURMA (MYANMAR)
SRI LANKA
MALDIVES
SEYCHELLES
COMOROS
MAURITIUS
THAILAND
CAMBODIA
VIETNAM
MACAUHONG KONG
SINGAPORE
BRUNEI
R U S S I A
K A Z A K H S T A N
M O N G O L I A
C H I N A
UZBEKISTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AFGHANISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
KYRGYZSTANAZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
ARMENIA
PAKISTAN
IRAN
IRAQ
MALAYSIA
INDONESIA
JAPAN
NORTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA
TAIWAN
PHILIPPINES
MICRONESIA
PALAU
GUAM
PAPUA NEWGUINEA
TIMOR LESTE
SOLOMON ISLANDS
VANUATU
FIJI
NEW ZEALAND
SAMOA
NIUE (NZ)FRENCH
POLYNESIA
TONGA
A U S T R A L I A
KIRIBATI
TUVALU
NAURU
Alaska (US)
TOGO
GHANA
CONGO
ANGOLA
CUBA
DJIBOUTI
ERITREA
LAOS
NEPAL
BANGLADESH
SOMALIA
KENYA
SOUTH SUDAN
EQ GUINEA
GAMBIA
GUINEA BISSAU
LESOTHO
LIBERIA
BURUNDI
RWANDA
MALAWI
SENEGAL
SIERRA LEONE
SWAZILAND
COTE D'IVOIRE
PUERTO RICO (US)
SWEDEN
NORWAY
ST. KITTS & NEVIS
ST. LUCIA
ST. VINCENT
BAHAMAS
Anchorage
Vancouver
Seattle
San Francisco
Los AngelesDallas
HoustonNew Orleans
Washington, D.C.
New York
Boston
Toronto
Chicago
OttawaMontréal
Guadalajara
Mexico City
Belmopan
Guatemala
San Salvador
Managua
Tegucigalpa
San JoséPanama
Miami
Havana
Kingston
Port-au-Prince
SantoDomingo
Caracas
Georgetown Paramaribo
Cayenne
Quito
Bogotá
Lima
La Paz
Santiago
Buenos AiresMontevideo
Asunción
Rio de Janeiro
São Paulo
Brasilia
Salvador
Fortaleza
Cape Town
Johannesburg
PretoriaGaborone
Maputo
Harare
Lusaka
Lilongwe
Dar-es-Salaam
Bujumbura
KigaliNairobi
Kampala
Windhoek
Luanda
Brazzaville
Kinshasa
Libreville
YaoundéBangui
Mogadishu
Addis Ababa
Antananarivo
GUINEAFreetown
MonroviaAbidjan Accra
Lomé
Bissau
Conakry
BanjulDakar
Nouakchott
El Aaiun
Rabat
Algiers
Tunis
Tripoli
Cairo
Khartoum
N'Djamena
NiameyBamako
Lisbon
Madrid
Paris
Bern
London
Dublin Berlin
Copenhagen
Prague
Rome
Sarajevo
Belgrade Bucharest
Athens
Warsaw
Kaliningrad(Russia)
StockholmOslo Helsinki
Tallinn
Riga
Vilnius
St Petersburg
Minsk
Kiev
Ankara
BeirutDamascus
AmmanTel Aviv
Sana
Mecca
Jeddah
Muscat
Abu DhabiRiyadh
Baghdad
Baku
Tehran
Ashkhabad
Kabul Islamabad
Dushanbe
Tashkent
Bishkek
Astana
Novosibirsk
Karachi
Delhi
Mumbai
Kolkata
Katmandu
Dhaka
Naypyitaw
Bangkok
Thimphu
Vientiane
Phnom Penh
Hanoi
Wuhan
Beijing
Ulan Bator
Pyongyang
Seoul
Vladivostock
Tokyo
Osaka
Shanghai
Taipei
Manila
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Dili
Darwin
Brisbane
Sydney
Canberra
Melbourne
Adelaide
Perth
Port Moresby
Auckland
Wellington
Christchurch
Colombo
Moscow
Bermuda (UK)
Godthåb
Honiara
Reykjavik
Azores (Port)
Madeira (Port)
The Canaries (Sp)
Guadeloupe (Fr)
GalapagosIslands (Ecuador)
Québec
Brussels
Amsterdam
Vienna Budapest
Sofia
ZagrebLjubljana
Bratislava
Kishinev
Yerevan
Tbilisi
Porto-NovoLagos
Ouagadougou
2015 Political Risk Map
Aon's political risk experts use a combination of market experience, innovative analysis tools and tailored risk transfer programmes to help you minimise your exposure to political risks. Aon designs risk transfer
and management programmes to respond to adverse political actions, providing balance sheet protection and business facilitation. Political and security risk assessments are also available, allowing you to make
informed decisions regarding your operations and investments.
For further information, please email prienquiries@aon.co.uk or visit www.aon.com/political-risks
About Roubini Global EconomicsRoubini Global Economics is a leading macroeconomic research and country risk firm best known for its accuracy in predicting vulnerabilities and crisis. Roubini Country Risk combines expert research and risk assessment tools, enabling you to better understand and quantitatively measure countries’ macroeconomic, political, business and social risks.
© Copyright Aon Group, Inc. 2015. All rights reserved. Published by Aon Global Corporate Marketing and Communications..
Sri Lanka
Indonesia
ChinaIndia
Iraq
Gulf ofAden
U.S. West Coast
Argentina
SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION RISKS
This map shows events that have caused disruption in global supply chains. The chief components of loss are business interruption and extra expense resulting from relocated production or alternative sourcing.This map is for illustration only.
Canada
U.S. Gulf of Mexico
Washington, DC
London
BosporusStrait
Brazil
Thailand
Taiwan
EU
Suez Canal MalaccaStrait
Panama Canal
South Korea
RECENT SUPPLY CHAINDISRUPTION EVENTS
Argentina: Financial crisis caused supplier insolvency
Canada: Canadian rail strike
China: SARS outbreak
EU: Blockage of Chinese textile imports
Gulf of Aden: Terrorist attack on oil tanker
Iraq: Iraq war
Suez Canal: Tanker breakdown blocked canal
Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia: Asian tsunami
U.S. Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Katrina
U.S. West Coast: Longshoreman strike
KEY SUPPLY CHAINDISRUPTION THREATS
Bosporus Strait, Malacca Strait, Panama Canal& Suez Canal: Terrorist attacks or maritime piracy
Brazil: Labour unrest and infastructure failures
China: Bird flu outbreak
China: Financial crisis causing supplier insolvency
India: Political instability
South Korea: War on Korean peninsula
Taiwan: China-Taiwan hostilities
Washington, D.C. and London:Restrictions on outsourcing
COMMODITY CRUNCHEXPOSURE MATRIXVolatility in global commodity prices in the 1970s and early 1980s contributed to political and economic instability in a number of countries. What countries are vulnerable in 2009 if commodity prices continue to fall, as some forecasters suggest?
VULNERABILITY INDICATORS
Angola
Argentina
Bahrain
Bolivia
Congo
Côte d’Ivoire
Ecuador
Guinea
Iran
Iraq
Kazakhstan
Nigeria
Norway
Pakistan
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Russian Federation
Saudi Arabia
Suriname
Tajikistan
Thailand
Trinidad and Tobago
Ukraine
Venezuela
Zimbabwe
Co
mm
odit
y C
run
chEx
pos
ure
Leve
l
Relia
nce
on
Co
mm
odit
yEx
por
ts
Exp
ort
Pric
eVo
lati
lity
Inst
abili
ty R
isk
SOVEREIGN DEFAULT RISKThe countries shown are of concern to political risk underwriters as being at potential risk of sovereign default in 2009. Selected indicators of default vulnerability are also shown.
VULNERABILITY INDICATORS
Argentina
Bolivia
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Georgia
Kyrgyzstan
Pakistan
Philippines
Romania
Tajikistan
Ukraine
Venezuela
Zimbabwe
An
alys
tC
on
cern
Exte
rnal
Deb
tO
blig
atio
ns
Cur
rent
Acc
ount
Defi
cit
Econ
omic
Polic
y Ri
sk
FOOD AND WATER INSECURITY INDEX
Angola
Argentina
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Brazil
China
Congo
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
Gabon
Gambia
Ghana
Guinea
India
Ivory Coast
Kazakhstan
Liberia
Libya
Nigeria
Pakistan
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Syria
Turkey
Uganda
Ukraine
Venezuela
Yemen
Ove
rall
Ran
kin
g
Wat
er In
secu
rity
an
d C
urre
nt
Stre
ss
Food
Inse
curi
ty
and
Cur
ren
t St
ress
Glo
bal
War
min
g
Vul
ner
abili
ty
Since 1990, global population growth has outpaced growth in global agricultural output. In the future, climate change may threaten both water resources and agricultural productivity. The Aon/Oxford Analytica Food and Water Insecurity Index assesses countries' vulnerability to disruptions in food and water supplies, combining 20 statistical indicators representing water insecurity, food insecurity, vulnerability to global warming, current levels of food/water stress and a country's capacity to react and adapt to unexpected food/water disruptions or shocks. The table below represents Aon's 'Top 30', based on those countries for which there has been the greatest number of requests for Political Risk insurance during 2009. It is not an exhaustive list; other countries for which Aon has seen a high demand for Political Risk cover include Afghanistan, Algeria, Benin, Bolivia, Colombia, Egypt, Georgia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Iraq, Kenya, Lebanon, Mexico, Peru, Philippines,Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.
48
135
39
156
163
69
95
119
137
102
4
81
131
45
146
140
42
8
97
41
91
104
3
105
33
70
134
54
88
17
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY SUPPLY RISK
Cocoa
Maize
Rice
Sugar Cane
Coffee
Sorghum
Wheat
Sugar Beet
Barley
Risk
Ran
kin
g
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Indonesia
China
Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, India
Pakistan, Thailand, China, India, Mexico
Ethiopia, Colombia, Uganda, Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Mexico, GuatemalaSudan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, China, India, Mexico
Pakistan, Russia, China, India
Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, China
Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, China, Spain
Sourcing Countries Most at Risk Other Primary Producers
Ghana
Brazil, USA
Brazil
Brazil
USA
France, USA
France, Germany, Poland, USASpain, France, Canada, Germany
Global agricultural supplies may be disrupted by many factors, including political violence, natural disasters, water insecurity and global warming. Aon and Oxford Analytica have developed assessments of supply disruption risk for more than 170 countries and nine agricultural commodities. Below, key commodities are ranked by the degree to which world supplies are concentrated in countries facing disruption risks. Also listed are other lower-risk 'Primary Producers' accounting for more than 5% of global production.
SOVEREIGN PAYMENT RISK PERCEPTIONSSOVEREIGN PAYMENT RISK PERCEPTIONSThese graphs display the shifts in market perceptions of sovereign payment risks for key
countries, based on conditions in trade credit and political risk insurance markets.
-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Dominican Republic
Latin America
MexicoBrazil
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Indonesia
Far East
Philippines
-180%-160%-140%-120%-100%
-80%-60%-40%-20%
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%180%
GhanaEgyptAngola
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Africa
-100%-90%-80%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Russian FederationRomania
Russia & CIS
KazakhstanAzerbaijan
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
PhilippinesIndonesia
Philippines Indonesia
Far East
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Romania Russian FederationKazakhstan
Russia & CIS
Azerbaijan
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Angola Egypt Ghana
Africa
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Brazil Mexico Dominican Republic
Latin America
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
20102009200820072006200520042003200220012000
Countries Region Election 1 typeElection 1
dateElection 2
typeElection 2 date
Election 3 type
Election 3 date
Election 4 type
Election 4 date
Algeria
Africa
Legislative 2012
Gambia Legislative 24/03/12
Guinea Bissau Parliamentary 2012
Sierra Leone Legislative Aug-12 Presidential 17/11/12
Angola Parliamentary Sep-12
Burkina Faso Parliamentary May-12
Cameroon Legislative Jul-12
Congo Braz-zaville
Legislative 2012
Equatorial Guinea
Parliamentary 2012
Ghana Presidential Dec-12 Legislative Dec-12
Kenya Presidential (First Round)
14/08/12 Parliamentary 14/08/12
Lesotho Parliamentary 2012
Madagascar Presidential (Tentative)
Mar-12 Parliamentary (Tentative)
Mar-12
Mali Presidential (First Round)
29/04/12 Presidential (Second Round)
13/05/12 Parliamentary (First Round)
01/07/12 Parliamentary (Second Round)
22/07/12
Senegal Presidential 26/02/12 Parliamentary 2012
Sudan Referendum (Postponed)
2012
Togo Parliamentary 2012
Zambia Referendum 2012
Zimbabwe Parliamentary (Tentative)
2012 Referendum (Tentative)
2012
Egypt
Middle East
Parliamentary 03/01/12 Legislative -- First Round
22/01/12 Presidential Mar-12
Syria Legislative (Tentative)
Feb-12
Iran Parliamentary 29/03/12
Palestine Presidential 04/05/12 Parliamentary 04/05/12
Yemen Presidential 21/02/12
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Africa & Middle East selected elections of interest
Region Country Election Election
Africa Angola Parliamentary – September 2012
Algeria Legislative – May 2012
Burkina Faso Parliamentary – May 2012
Cameroon Legislative – July 2012
Congo Brazzaville Legislative – 2012
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary – 2012
Gambia Legislative – 29 March 2012
Ghana Presidential – December 2012 Legislative – December 2012
Guinea Bissau Parliamentary - 2012 Presidential – April 2012
Lesotho Parliamentary – February 2012
Madagascar Presidential (Tentative) – March 2012 Parliamentary (Tentative) – March 2012
Mali Presidential – 29 April & 13 May 2012 Parliamentary – 1 July & 22 July 2012
Senegal Presidential – 26 February 2012 Parliamentary – 17 June 2012
Sierra Leone Legislative – November 2012 Presidential – 17 November 2012
Sudan Referendum (Postponed) – 2012
Togo Parliamentary – October 2012
Zambia Referendum – 2012
Zimbabwe Parliamentary (Tentative) – 2012 Referendum (Tentative) - 2012
Middle East Egypt Presidential – March 2012
Iran Parliamentary 29 March 2012
Palestine Presidential – 4 May 2012 Parliamentary – 4 May 2012
Syria Legislative (Tentative) – February 2012
Yemen Presidential – 21 February 2012 (Tentative)
Dates correct at time of print - January 2012
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