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8/13/2019 2003 Real World Outage Planning
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
2003 Primavera User Con ference
Real World Outage
Planning and Control
presented by
Mike Stonew/ Professional Project Management Services
Copyright 2002 Primavera Systems, Inc.
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Session Rules
Ask questions when confused.
Only one person can talk at a time.
Everyone participates.
No such thing as a dumb question.
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Heres What Were Going to Tell You!
Define your work in detail
Estimate resources and durations
Assign work to individuals not groups
Track hours and cost
Work every minute that is available
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Your Job is Not Simple!
1styoure going to plan how youre going
to develop your plan
Then, you have to plan the outage
Manage and control the work
Report the status to your bossMost importantly, you have to manage
peoples expectations
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Defining Phase Objectives /
Goals
You have to know the real objectives for
this seasons outage.
Absolute shortest time? Absolute lowest cost?
Maximum production?
Best economic advantage to the plant?
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Outage Economics 101
Everysystem has an economic value.
Everyproject can be accelerated.
Nominally, the marginal daily profit of a
system is the maximum acceleration
cost you should be willing to expend
for a day of acceleration.
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Maximize Benefits
Time vs. money
Faster projects increase cost of work.
Faster projects decreases lost productionrevenues.
You must find the equilibrium betweenthe speed and the additional cost.
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Construction Cost vs. Time
Project Cost
All jobs have a point where the
lowest possible cost has a time
associated with that cost.$
Time
Cost
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Cost Benefit Analysis
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Long Outages Cost More
Total Cost of Long
DurationGoal is to work
in this area!!!
Out of Pocket
Costs
Opportunity
Costs
Lowest
Cost
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Real Life Example
13,734
4,578
2,671
1,717
1,259954
736572 483 412 354 305 264 229 206 186 168 153 133 120 10 9 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 11 1 11 1 11
-$3,000,000
-$2,000,000
-$1,000,000
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Time
Value
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
No.
Men
Cummulative
Labor Cost
OpportunityCost
Number ofPeople
Real Costof Outage
Break Even Point
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Shorten Outage by Eliminating Work
There are three work phases to every
outage: Work that can be done pre-outage
Work that can only be done during the outage
And work that can be done post-outage
Eliminating any work that can be done in
a non-outage situation is critical.
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Simplify Scope Definition w/ Excel
WBS for Construction of a Small Building OBS / Responsibility
1 Foundations
1.1 Clear Site
1.2 Excavate for Foundations
1.3 Pour Concrete
1.3.1 Piers
1.31.1 Survey locations for piers A-1 Surveying
1.3.1.2 Drill piers - place steel - pour Real Deep Drilling Co.
1.3.1.3 Tie steel cages for piers Bob's Re-Bar Service1.3.2 Footings
1.3.3 Slab
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Estimating
For every task-identified estimate: Resources required
Equipment
Materials
For every task, estimatethe duration
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Duration = Work / Productivity
You can not estimate durations without
making assumptions about which resources
will be available and their productivity
period!
Work To Be Performed
Productivity Rate = Duration
Productivity per Man x No. of Men = Productivity Rate
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Estimating
Develop a
worksheet for
each activity
identified
No exceptions
Task : Remove Brick From Kiln 4/18/2002 Task No. 001
Scope : Quantity : 2,187.0 SFProductivity : 550.0 SF / Day
Duration : 4.0 D ays
Work Day : 10.0 Hours
LABOR
Qty Description Days Hours Rate Total Unit Cost
1 Foreman 4 40.00 28.75 1,150.00 0.53Machinist 4 22.50Welder 4 26.00
6 Laborers 4 240.00 16.00 3,840.00 1.7644
44
7 Totals. 280.00 17.82 4,990.00 2.28
LABOR BURDEN Total Labor $$ Burden Rate Total Unit Cost
Burden = Taxes, Fringes, Insurance, HOOH, etc. 4,990.00 43.50% 2,170.65 0.99
EQUIPMENT
Qty Description Days Hours Rate / Price Total Unit Cost
0.5 Forklift 4 20.00 45.00 900.00 0.41
1 Air Compressor 4 40.00 45.00 1,800.00 0.820.2 Front-end loader 4 8.00 45.00 360.00 0.161 Dump Truck 4 40.00 45.00 1,800.00 0.82
4 45.00
2.7 Totals. 108.00 45.00 4,860.00 2.22
MATERIALS
Qty Description Rate Qty Unit Price Total Unit Cost
Totals.
TOOLS / SUPPLIESQty Description Rate Qty Unit Price Total Unit Cost
1 Cutting torch 40 40.00 8.00 320.00 0.15
1 Totals. 40.00 8.00 320.00 0.15
SUBCONTRACTORS
Qty Description Days Hours / Qty Rate Total Unit Cost
44444
Totals.
TOTAL COSTS .. $12,340.65 $5.64
Remove brick from kiln; approximately 58' of brick from the burning zone.Diameter = 12' x 3.142857 x 58 = 2187 sf of brick to be demo'd - includes removalthrough loading wasted bricks into dump trucks for disposal.
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Scope / Productivity =
Duration
Task or Activity
Name
Date estimate
was made
Schedule ID
Number
Task : Remove Brick From Kiln 4/18/2002 Task No. 001
Scope : Quantity : 2,187.0 SF
Productivity : 550.0 SF / Day
Duration : 4.0 Days
Work Day : 10.0 Hours
Remove brick from kiln; approximately 58' of brick from the burning
zone. Diameter = 12' x 3.142857 x 58 = 2187 sf of brick to be
demo'd - includes removal through loading wasted bricks into dump
trucks for disposal.
Detailed scope
information
Qty / Productivity /
Duration Basis
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
LaborThe Biggest Variable
LABOR
Qty Description Days Hours Rate Total Unit Cost
1 Foreman 4 40.00 28.75 1,150.00 0.53Machinist 4 22.50
Welder 4 26.00
6 Laborers 4 240.00 16.00 3,840.00 1.76
4
4
4
4
7 Totals. 280.00 17.82 4,990.00 2.28
LABOR BURDEN Total Labor $$ Burden Rate Total Unit Cost
Burden = Taxes, Fringes, Insurance, HOOH, etc. 4,990.00 43.50% 2,170.65 0.99
Crew make-up Crew costsDays / hours
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Sequence the Activities
Place the activities in the most logical
sequence Only consideration is physical constraint
Dont worry about who will do the work
Dont worry about rolling crews, etc.
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
CPM Schedule
If you are not scheduling using a CPM
scheduleyoure not scheduling
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Does Anyone Know What This Is?
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Topological Construction Schedule
24 July 1957
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Sequencing
The right sequence is much more
important than the planned dates
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
If You Have a Good Sequence!
A schedule with good logic has a very
good chance of working properly, evenif all of the estimated durations are
wrong.
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
If You Have a Bad Sequence!
A schedule with bad logic has virtually
no chance of working correctly, nomatter the accuracy of duration
estimates!
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Some Simple Rules
Every activity (except the first and last)
MUSThave a predecessor andsuccessor activityperiod.
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Keep Activities Small
Activities need to be broken into small
enough portions that they can besequenced in relation to other tasks
and areas of the project easily.
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Accountability
Activities need to be broken into small
enough pieces so that only one personis responsible for the activity.
C iti l R d
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Critical Resources and
Resource Leveling
Critical resources are not craftsman or
equipment.You can get more with a phone call and
money!
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Critical Resources
SUPERVISORS
The most critical resource is the number
of responsible people that can be
assigned and held accountable to
complete tasks
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Assign Every Task to a Responsible Person
Accountable for Its Completion
When you run out of names, youve
reached the limit of what will get done in
that day.
On most outages, a lead person or
foreman can not oversee more than
about three tasks per day.
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Resource Leveling
Reassign activities to
uniformly spread the
work for each lead
person over the
outage and eliminate
non-work periods
and over subscribedperiods.
Bob
BobDont Stack Activities
Do String Activities
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Band by Person
Band by person
Color by person
Look for blankspace or for
stacked activities
2001 2002
DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
31 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6
Mike N. Ooopsie 0181 4,51
MOTOR GROUNDSAND INSPECTIONS
0149 2,57
MOTORGROUNDS
0150 1,57
KILN HOODCAMERA
0151 2,58
KilnThermocouples
Nunzio O. Pokieman 0155 4,59
CALIBRATESWITCH GEAR
0172 1,69
OXYGENANALYZER
Paul Q. Redowork 0154 2,39
WARMUP KILN
0143 0,37
EMPTYFEED TANK
0144 0,37
BURNKILN OUT
Quincy R. Sleepsonthejob
0187 10,71
COAL MILL ROLLSAND INTERNALS
Raul S. Takeabreak 0173 1,66
INSPECTFEED TANK
0185 2,44
DRAGCHAIN
0174 1,66
DUSTELEVATOR
0175 2,66
FEEDSCREW
0171 1,63
DUSTSCREWS
0176 1,63
FEEDTANK D.C.
0178 0,65
EMERGENCYAIR DAMPERS
Steve T. Unmotivated 0184 3,38
CLINKERBREAKER
0182 2,54
COOLERFANS
0145 1,37
PULLKILN HOOD
0191 1,71
TRIPLEGATE VALVES
0056
#2 COOLERDRAG
0166 6,62
REPLACE BAGS -3 COMPARTMENTS
0152 6,57
REPLACE CHAINAS NEEDED
0153 0,39
CLOSE HOOD &INSTALL BURNER PIPE
0147 3,60
REPAIR HOODSEALS SHROUD
0168 3,64
FLUIDDRIVE
0167 1,69
I.D.FAN
0170 1,69
MULTICONES
0169 1,64
REVERSEAIR FAN
0177 1,64
FEEDBLOWERS
0180 9,39
GRATES AND BEAMS
0183 3,53
COOLERDRIVE
0146 1,37
REPLACE NOSECASTINGS
0148 2,62
KILNREPAIRS
Tommy U. Viaduct 0192 0,89
MOTOR GROUNDSAND INSPECTIONS
0188 4,71
COALMILL FAN
0189 2,71
REPAIR COALMILL CYCLONE
0190 1,71
COAL MILL CYCLONETIPPING GATE
Xenia Y. Lazyone 0157 1,37
TEAR OUTBRICK
0159 2,37
BRICK KILN -contractor
0160 2,37
REFRACTORYPATCHES IN KILN
0158 1,37
CLEANOUT KILN
0164 3,59
BRICKMATERIAL COSTS
0161 1,37
POURNOSE
0163 1,37
REFRACTORYPATCHES IN KILN
0162 2,38
POUR REFRACTORYIN COOLER
P l ot D at e 1 8FEB02D a t a D a t e 1 3 J AN 0 2Project Start 5JAN02Project Finish26APR02
(c) Primavera Systems, Inc.
Activity Bar/Early Datesa c t id r d t f
Critical ActivityProgress BarMilestone/Flag Activity
Date ApprovedCheckedRevision
Lead Person
Q u in c y R. S le e ps o nt h ej o b R a ul S . Ta ke a br e ak
T omm y U . V iad uct Mi ke N. Ooop sie
N un zi o O . P ok ie ma n P au l Q . R ed ow or k
X en ia Y. La zy on e S te ve T. Un mo ti va te d
TL-01 Lead Person on Kiln 2
Lone98
Lone Star IndustriesLS 03 S hee t 1 of 1
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Band by Person (cont.)
Band by person
Color by person
Look for blankspace or for
stacked activities
JA N5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3
0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 18 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 18 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 18 0 6 1 2 18 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 18 0
T e s t S a f e t y V a l v
O p e n I n s p e c t i o n D o o r s
C h a n g e O i l i n P r e h e a t e r B e a r i n g
S c a f f o l d R e h e a t e r S e c t i o
L u b r ic a t e V a l v e s a n d R e p a i r G a s V a l
L u b r i c a t e A i r S h a f t
C h e c k B u r n e r s
R e p a c k V a l v e
F i r e B o i l e r
C o n n e c t A c i d P i p i n g a n d A c i d C l e a n B o i
I n s p e c t A i r D u c t
R e p a i r R e h e a te r T u b e s a n d P e e p h o l e G a s
R e m o v e a n d C l e a n P i p i n
I n s p e c t A i r P re h e a t e r s a n d F a n B e a r i
R e p a i r B l o w d o w n L i n e
r e c t S a n d b l a s t S t r u c t u
R e m o v e L a g g i n
R e m o v e E x h a u st H D .
R e m o v e E x h a u s t H o o d a n d I n n e r S h e l l B o l t i
R e m o v e I n n e r S h e
S a n d b l a s t S p i n d l
C l e a n B o l t s a n d S h e l l J o i n
M a g n a f l u x S p i n d l
B o i l e r U n i t
Wil l iam F . S imon - B o i ler maker /Mech S uper visor
K ath leen M. B lack - O per at ions Manage r
Micha el S . R eese - P ipef i tt er S upe r visor
John R . D aly - Welder S uper in tendent
T u r b i n e G e n e r a t o r
Wil l iam F . S imon - B o i ler maker /Mech S uper visor
P ri m a v e r a S y s t e m s , I n c .
Sta rt Da te 0 5 J AN 0 0 0 0 :0 0
F i n i s h Da te 2 2 JAN 0 0 1 2:5 9
Da ta Da te 0 8 J AN 0 0 0 0 :0 0
Ru n Da te 2 6 FEB 0 2 0 4 :3 8
E a r l y B a r
P r o g re s s B a r
C ri t i c a l A c t i v i t y
O UTG
Northeast Utilities Co.
Demons trationOutage Project
Grouped by Subproj&&Responsibility
Sheet 1of 3
Da te Re vis io n e ck Ap pro ve d
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Work All of the Time!
168 hours in a week
Most projects, even
acceleratedprojects, use less
than 40% of the
available time.
5x8s 40 hrs 24%
5x10s 50 hrs 30%
6x12s 72 hrs 43%
7x12s 84 hrs 50%
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Night Shift Syndrome
Poor productivity
Caused by least skilled workforce
Caused by poor supervision
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Night Shift Solutions
Solve by assigning more senior
supervisors and craftsmen to night
shifts
Be prepared to pay a shift differential
Project managers have to work nights,
too!
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Anticipate Productivity Loss
Only 75% productivity 1st
week of 7x12s
Only 70% productivity
2
nd
week of 7x12s
Only 65% productivity 3rd
week of 7x12s
7x12s will produce less
than hours of productive
work by week 6
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Anticipate Non-Work Periods
Dont plan outages that will go through
major holidays
If you must, anticipate loss in
productivity or a loss in attendance
Also high probability of non-delivery by
suppliers
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Plan on multiple shifts
Increase critical resources
Means more supervision Assistant project managers
Superintendents
Foreman
Lead craftsmen
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Bag and Tag
Pre-package nuts/bolts/gaskets for
particular tasksminimize time
looking for parts Palletize parts
Use bins
Piles as a last resort
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Organize Laydown Areas by Task
B2
B4
B6
B8
B10
B1
B3
B5
B7
B9
A2
A4
A6
A8
A10
A1
A3
A5
A7
A9
O i L d A b F
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Organize Laydown Area by Foreman
or by Equipment / System
Crusher
PH Twr
Clinker Dome
Silos
Conveyors
Kiln
Cooler
Pan Conv
Finish
Mill
Raw Mill
Bob
David
Frank
Hank
Jack
Andy
Charles
Ed
George
Inez
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Walkdowns
Prior to finalizing schedule and duration
estimates, have each responsible
person walk down their list of items.
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Negotiations with Lead People
After walkdowns have been completed,
get 100% buy-in from each person.
I can depend upon you to complete
your tasks in the assigned time
correct?
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Negotiations with Lead People (cont.)
If there is any hesitation, negotiate to
supply more resources, lengthen the
duration, or make other changes
beforeyou finalize the plan.
Do notgo into the outage without 100%
buy-in from every lead person for
his/her portion of the work.
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Resource and Cost Loading
Only two resources are necessary to
measure status and progress Cash value
Hours
Everything else is just extrakeep it
simple.
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Earned Value
If youre not measuring progress and
performance using earned value
youre not measuring progress or
performance.
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Earned Value (cont.)
Cash allows earned value measurements
on the dollar values Can be skewed by major equipment deliveries
Can be skewed by materials / erection equipment
Project managers often dont have control over the
price of materials, etc.
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Earned Value (cont.)
Hours allows earned value measurements
on the actual effort plus provides a
basis for job population counts.
Project managers have control over Labor
Amount of labor available
Application of labor
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Performance Measurement and Reporting
If it seems to complicated, simplify it to fit
your projects.
Remember, during an outage updates
and progress reporting must be done
daily or even with every shift change.
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Earned Value
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Days
Manhours
BCWS
BCWP
ACWP
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HoursDaily amd Cumulative
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Days
Daily
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Cummulative
Daily Plan
Cumm Act
Daily Act
Cumm Plan
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One Page Status Summaries
Consider multiple
small graphs all
using the sametime scale
Allows reviewer
to get the bigpicture quickly
Competitor Cement - Michigan Day 8 of 17Annual Maintenance Outage Status Summary - Spring 2002
Number of Men
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 2 1 2 3
Days
Men
Planned
Actual
Raw Manhours Planned vs Expended
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Days
Daily
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Cummulative
Planned
Act. Daily
Cumm. Plan
Act. Cumm.
Completed Work Orders
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Days
Daily
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Cummulative
DailyPlan
DailyAct.
Cumm. Plan
Cumm. Act.
WORK ORDERS ARE
TAKEN TO STATUS 90 AND
HELD TO FACILITATE ANY
ADDITIONAL PARTS TO BE
ORDERED!!!!!!!!!!!
NO MEASUREMENT!!!!!!
Schedule Tasks Completed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Days
Daily
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Cummulative
Daily Plan
Daily Act.
Cumm. Plan
Cumm. Act.
Earned Value - Manhours
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 1 5 17
Thousands
Days
Manhours
BCWS
BCWP
ACWP
Performance Indices
0.0000
0.2500
0.5000
0.7500
1.0000
1.2500
1.5000
1.7500
2.0000
1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 21 2 3
Days
CPI
SPI
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Heres What We Told You!
Define the work
Plan your work
Assign every task to someonePerform walkdowns in advance
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Heres What We Told You! (cont.)
Negotiate for 100% buy-in
Measurereport by person
Organize parts / materials logically
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Two Most Important Points
Most critical resource is supervision
Work all of the time that is available
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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.
Questions?
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Contact Us!
Mike Stone
Professional Project Management Services
P.O. Box 546
Richmond, TX 77406
281 / 343-0712
mikestone@cpmguru.com
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