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Power Supply Op-ons for Energy Security
AllanC.Nerves,Ph.D.Electrical&ElectronicsEngineeringIns9tute
UniversityofthePhilippines,Diliman
Beyond2010:LeadershipfortheNextgenera9onAU.P.Academic’sCongress
MalcolmHall,UniversityofthePhilippines,DilimanFebruary16,2010
Objec9ves
• Latestdataoncurrentandprospec9veuseofelectricity.• Comparisonofenergygenera9onop9ons• Overviewoftheissuesrelatedtoeachtechnologyandan
assessmentofthepoten9alofeachtechnologytobeacontributortothelong‐termgenera9onoutlookinthePhilippines.
3
2006PowerGridMap
2006PowerGridMap
2006PowerGridMap
2006PowerGridMap
ElectricityDemand
PeakDemand(MW)
DOEPowerSta9s9cs
ElectricityDemand
DOEPowerSta9s9cs
ElectricityConsump9onbySector(GWh)
Resources
• Thepoten9alhydrocarbonenergyresourcesinthePhilippinesareverylimited,andwhilethereweresomenewcoalandnaturalgasdiscoveriesbetween2000and2005,itisunlikelytheirproduc9onwillmatchprojecteddemandgrowth.
• U9lizingalterna9veenergysources,suchasgeothermal,biomassandhydro,willbecri9caltotheeconomymee9ngitsenergysupply–demandbalanceinthefuture,andtoavoidincreasingitsdependencyonimportedfuelsfurtherthanalreadyprojected.
• AremarkablefeatureofthePhilippinesistheveryhighrateofu9liza9onofitsgeothermalresource–involumetheworld’ssecondlargesta^ertheUnitedStates.Todevelopitsgeothermalenergypoten9alfurthersoitcanreachtheprojectedtotalinstalledcapacityof3500MWby2030,theeconomywillneedtoimplementstrategiestoencourageexplora9onandincreaseu9liza9on,andalsoestablishapolicyframeworkthatsupportsinvestment.
Resources
EnergyReserves:• Oil:24millioncubicmeters
• Gas:107billioncubicmeters
• Coal:399milliontonnes
• Geothermal:4537MWpoten9al(1931MWexis9ngplants)
• Solar,wind,biomass,ocean:250,000MWpoten9al
Genera9on
Genera9onMixDOEPowerSta9s9cs
Genera9on
Compara9veGenera9onbyResource(GWh)DOE,14thEPIRAImplementa9onStatusReport,April2009.
Genera9on
2008Installed&DependableCapacityDOE,14thEPIRAImplementa9onStatusReport,April2009.
Genera9on
• CommicedPowerProjects:1354MW(600MW–Luzon,653.5MW–Visayas,100.5MW–Mindanao)(2010‐2014comple9on)
• Indica9vePowerProjects:4135MW(2010‐2015comple9on)
DOE,14thEPIRAImplementa9onStatusReport,April2009.
Genera9on
UNESCAP,EnergySecurityandSustainableDevelopmentinAsiaandthePacific,2008.
ElectricityGenera9onOutlook(TWh)
Genera9on
PhilippineElectricityGenera9onMix
APERC,APECEnergySupply&DemandOutlook,4thEd.,EconomyReview,2009.
TransmissionNetwork
Substa9onCapacity(MVA)TRANSCOAnnualReports2002‐2008
TransmissionNetwork
TransmissionLineLength(ckt‐km)TRANSCOAnnualReports2002‐2008
TransmissionNetwork
SystemLoss(%ofNetGenera9on)TRANSCOAnnualReports2002‐2008
TransmissionNetwork
• Usefulnewtransmissionlineso^enfacedifficultregulatoryobstacles,aswellascomplexlawsandrules.
BENEFITSOFPOWERGRIDEXPANSION
• Powergridenhancementscanmakeelectricsupplymorereliablebyimprovingtheabilityofeconomiestocopewiththeoutageofspecificgenera9ngunitsortypesofgenera9ngunits,aswellasbylimi9ngthescopeofpoweroutages.
• Enhancedpowergridscanlowerelectricitycostsbyreducingneedsforelectricgenera9ngcapacityandallowingcheaperfueltobesubs9tutedformoreexpensivefuel.Gridslowerneedsforgenera9ngcapacitybyallowingpeakdemandinoneareatobeservedinpartbysparecapacityinaneighbouringareawheredemandisnotatitspeak.Gridslowerfuelcostsbyallowinggenera9onfromnuclear,hydroandcoal‐firedpowerplantstodisplacegenera9onfromgas‐firedplants.
TransmissionNetwork
• Extensionofpowergridscanbenefittheenvironmentbyallowingformsofpowergenera9onwithloweratmosphericemissionstoreplacetypesofgenera9onwithhigheremissions.Forexample,nuclearandhydropowerhavemuchloweremissionsthangas‐firedpower,whichinturnhasmuchloweremissionsthanconven9onalcoal‐firedpower.
TransmissionNetwork
• Obstaclesrelatestothecomplexityofzoningandenvironmentalregula9ons,whichmaymakeitdifficulttoobtainapprovalfornewelectricpowerlinesinallthejurisdic9onsthroughwhichtheyrun.
• Differentrulesandregula9onswhichareo^eninconsistentwitheachotheranddonotalwayspromoteinvestment.
Severalop9onsareavailabletostreamlinethesi9ngoftransmissionfacili9es:
• Anopenplanningprocess,whichsolicitstheviewsofallinterestedpar9esonhowbesttoaddressatransmissionneed,reducesopposi9onintwoways.Itallowsallpar9estobesa9sfiedthattheirviewshavebeenconsidered.Italsoallowsthoseproposingnewlinestosuittheirproposalstoabroaderspectrumofinterests.
TransmissionNetwork
• Considera9onofabroadrangeofop9ons,whichfocusesonhowbesttomeetpowerneedsratherthanongejngapar9cularprojectbuilt,canengagethepublictohelpthetransmissioncompanyfindasolu9onthatmeetseveryone’srequirements.Italsoallowstheapplicanttoshowthataprojectisthebestwaytomeettheneed.
• Regionalplanningbodiescancreateanefficientreviewprocessforproposednewtransmissionlines.Allen99esthathavelegaljurisdic9onoversi9ngcanworkwiththesamedocumentsandestablishcommon9melinesforreviews,elimina9ngtheneedforduplicateapplica9onsandreviewmee9ngsacrossjurisdic9ons.
Environment
PhilippineCO2EmissionsbySector
APERC,APECEnergySupply&DemandOutlook,4thEd.,EconomyReview,2009.
Env
ironm
enta
l im
pact
s of
ele
ctric
ity g
ener
atio
n te
chno
logy
C
anad
ian
Ele
ctric
ity A
ssoc
iatio
n, P
ower
Gen
erat
ion
in C
anad
a, 2
006
Life‐cycleairemissionsofelectricitygenera9onsInterna9onalEnergyAgency,BenignEnergy?TheEnvironmentalImplica9onsofRenewables,1998
Performancesummaryfordifferentfossilfuel‐firedplantsADB,ImprovingEnergySecurity&ReducingCarbonIntensityinAsiaandthePacific,2009
Environment
CurrentandfuturecarbonfootprintsParliamentaryOfficeofS&T,CarbonFootprintofElectricityGenera9on,2006.CCS=carboncapture&storage
Environment
RangeofcarbonfootprintsforEuropeanlowcarbontechnologiesParliamentaryOfficeofS&T,CarbonFootprintofElectricityGenera9on,2006
Genera9onCost
Electricitygenera9oncost,withoutemissionstradingR.Tarjanne&A.Kivisto,ComparisonofElectricityGenera9onCost,LappeenrantaUniv.OfTech.,2008.
Genera9onCost
Electricitygenera9oncost,withemissionstradingR.Tarjanne&A.Kivisto,ComparisonofElectricityGenera9onCost,LappeenrantaUniv.OfTech.,2008.
Wholesaleelectricitygenera9oncostBCHydro,IntegratedElectricityPlan,2004.
Long‐runmarginalcostofgenera9ontechnologies,A$/MWh,2008McLennan,Magasnik&Associates,Compara9veCostofElectricityGenera9onTechnologies,2009.
Ability of technologies to deliver base and peak load electricity
Canadian Electricity Association, Power Generation in Canada, 2006
Sea
sona
l ava
ilabi
lity
of p
ower
from
var
ious
tec
hnol
ogie
s C
anad
ian
Ele
ctric
ity A
ssoc
iatio
n, P
ower
Gen
erat
ion
in C
anad
a, 2
006
Poten9almeasurestoaddressenergysecurityADB,ImprovingEnergySecurity&ReducingCarbonIntensityinAsiaandthePacific,2009
UrgencyofinvestmentrequirementsADB,ImprovingEnergySecurity&ReducingCarbonIntensityinAsiaandthePacific,2009
Likelihoodoffuelchoicesforelectricitygenera9oninthefutureADB,ImprovingEnergySecurity&ReducingCarbonIntensityinAsiaandthePacific,2009
ThePathForward
• Mee9ngthean9cipatedsignificantincreaseingenera9onrequirementsoverthenext20yearsentailsseriousfinancial,environmentalandsocialimplica9ons.
• Supportcon9nuedfueldiversityandthepursuitofopportuni9esthatensureaffordableelectricity,whilemee9ngincreasinglydemandingobjec9veswithrespecttosecurity,powerquality,reliabilityandtheenvironment.
• Theuseofeachresourcetoproduceelectricityresultsindifferentlife‐cycleenvironmentalimpacts,costsandopera9ngcharacteris9cs.EachofthesefactorsneedstobecarefullyconsideredandbalancedindevelopingfutureelectricityprojectsinthePhilippines.
• Technologicalchangesanddevelopmentprac9ceswillhaveasignificantimpactonthecon9nueduseofconven9onalsourcesandthefeasibilityofusingemergingtechnologies.
ThePathForward
• Needtodrawuponacombina9onofelectricitygenera9ontechnologies,aswellasdemand‐sidemanagement,toensureasustainableenergyfuture.
• Onlywithagoodgraspofthetechnologiesandtheirrangeofimplica9onscanstakeholdersworkeffec9velytogethertomeetthesesignificantsupplychallenges,andcreatetherightcondi9onstofosterasustainableelectricityfuture.
THANK YOU.
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