Power Supply Op-ons for Energy Security 

AllanC.Nerves,Ph.D.Electrical&ElectronicsEngineeringIns9tute

UniversityofthePhilippines,Diliman

Beyond2010:LeadershipfortheNextgenera9onAU.P.Academic’sCongress

MalcolmHall,UniversityofthePhilippines,DilimanFebruary16,2010

Objec9ves

•  Latestdataoncurrentandprospec9veuseofelectricity.•  Comparisonofenergygenera9onop9ons•  Overviewoftheissuesrelatedtoeachtechnologyandan

assessmentofthepoten9alofeachtechnologytobeacontributortothelong‐termgenera9onoutlookinthePhilippines.

3

2006PowerGridMap

2006PowerGridMap

2006PowerGridMap

2006PowerGridMap

ElectricityDemand

PeakDemand(MW)

DOEPowerSta9s9cs

ElectricityDemand

DOEPowerSta9s9cs

ElectricityConsump9onbySector(GWh)

Resources

•  Thepoten9alhydrocarbonenergyresourcesinthePhilippinesareverylimited,andwhilethereweresomenewcoalandnaturalgasdiscoveriesbetween2000and2005,itisunlikelytheirproduc9onwillmatchprojecteddemandgrowth.

•  U9lizingalterna9veenergysources,suchasgeothermal,biomassandhydro,willbecri9caltotheeconomymee9ngitsenergysupply–demandbalanceinthefuture,andtoavoidincreasingitsdependencyonimportedfuelsfurtherthanalreadyprojected.

•  AremarkablefeatureofthePhilippinesistheveryhighrateofu9liza9onofitsgeothermalresource–involumetheworld’ssecondlargesta^ertheUnitedStates.Todevelopitsgeothermalenergypoten9alfurthersoitcanreachtheprojectedtotalinstalledcapacityof3500MWby2030,theeconomywillneedtoimplementstrategiestoencourageexplora9onandincreaseu9liza9on,andalsoestablishapolicyframeworkthatsupportsinvestment.

Resources

EnergyReserves:•  Oil:24millioncubicmeters

•  Gas:107billioncubicmeters

•  Coal:399milliontonnes

•  Geothermal:4537MWpoten9al(1931MWexis9ngplants)

•  Solar,wind,biomass,ocean:250,000MWpoten9al

Genera9on

Genera9onMixDOEPowerSta9s9cs

Genera9on

Compara9veGenera9onbyResource(GWh)DOE,14thEPIRAImplementa9onStatusReport,April2009.

Genera9on

2008Installed&DependableCapacityDOE,14thEPIRAImplementa9onStatusReport,April2009.

Genera9on

•  CommicedPowerProjects:1354MW(600MW–Luzon,653.5MW–Visayas,100.5MW–Mindanao)(2010‐2014comple9on)

•  Indica9vePowerProjects:4135MW(2010‐2015comple9on)

DOE,14thEPIRAImplementa9onStatusReport,April2009.

Genera9on

UNESCAP,EnergySecurityandSustainableDevelopmentinAsiaandthePacific,2008.

ElectricityGenera9onOutlook(TWh)

Genera9on

PhilippineElectricityGenera9onMix

APERC,APECEnergySupply&DemandOutlook,4thEd.,EconomyReview,2009.

TransmissionNetwork

Substa9onCapacity(MVA)TRANSCOAnnualReports2002‐2008

TransmissionNetwork

TransmissionLineLength(ckt‐km)TRANSCOAnnualReports2002‐2008

TransmissionNetwork

SystemLoss(%ofNetGenera9on)TRANSCOAnnualReports2002‐2008

TransmissionNetwork

•  Usefulnewtransmissionlineso^enfacedifficultregulatoryobstacles,aswellascomplexlawsandrules.

BENEFITSOFPOWERGRIDEXPANSION

•  Powergridenhancementscanmakeelectricsupplymorereliablebyimprovingtheabilityofeconomiestocopewiththeoutageofspecificgenera9ngunitsortypesofgenera9ngunits,aswellasbylimi9ngthescopeofpoweroutages.

•  Enhancedpowergridscanlowerelectricitycostsbyreducingneedsforelectricgenera9ngcapacityandallowingcheaperfueltobesubs9tutedformoreexpensivefuel.Gridslowerneedsforgenera9ngcapacitybyallowingpeakdemandinoneareatobeservedinpartbysparecapacityinaneighbouringareawheredemandisnotatitspeak.Gridslowerfuelcostsbyallowinggenera9onfromnuclear,hydroandcoal‐firedpowerplantstodisplacegenera9onfromgas‐firedplants.

TransmissionNetwork

•  Extensionofpowergridscanbenefittheenvironmentbyallowingformsofpowergenera9onwithloweratmosphericemissionstoreplacetypesofgenera9onwithhigheremissions.Forexample,nuclearandhydropowerhavemuchloweremissionsthangas‐firedpower,whichinturnhasmuchloweremissionsthanconven9onalcoal‐firedpower.

TransmissionNetwork

•  Obstaclesrelatestothecomplexityofzoningandenvironmentalregula9ons,whichmaymakeitdifficulttoobtainapprovalfornewelectricpowerlinesinallthejurisdic9onsthroughwhichtheyrun.

•  Differentrulesandregula9onswhichareo^eninconsistentwitheachotheranddonotalwayspromoteinvestment.

Severalop9onsareavailabletostreamlinethesi9ngoftransmissionfacili9es:

•  Anopenplanningprocess,whichsolicitstheviewsofallinterestedpar9esonhowbesttoaddressatransmissionneed,reducesopposi9onintwoways.Itallowsallpar9estobesa9sfiedthattheirviewshavebeenconsidered.Italsoallowsthoseproposingnewlinestosuittheirproposalstoabroaderspectrumofinterests.

TransmissionNetwork

•  Considera9onofabroadrangeofop9ons,whichfocusesonhowbesttomeetpowerneedsratherthanongejngapar9cularprojectbuilt,canengagethepublictohelpthetransmissioncompanyfindasolu9onthatmeetseveryone’srequirements.Italsoallowstheapplicanttoshowthataprojectisthebestwaytomeettheneed.

•  Regionalplanningbodiescancreateanefficientreviewprocessforproposednewtransmissionlines.Allen99esthathavelegaljurisdic9onoversi9ngcanworkwiththesamedocumentsandestablishcommon9melinesforreviews,elimina9ngtheneedforduplicateapplica9onsandreviewmee9ngsacrossjurisdic9ons.

Environment

PhilippineCO2EmissionsbySector

APERC,APECEnergySupply&DemandOutlook,4thEd.,EconomyReview,2009.

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Life‐cycleairemissionsofelectricitygenera9onsInterna9onalEnergyAgency,BenignEnergy?TheEnvironmentalImplica9onsofRenewables,1998

Performancesummaryfordifferentfossilfuel‐firedplantsADB,ImprovingEnergySecurity&ReducingCarbonIntensityinAsiaandthePacific,2009

Environment

CurrentandfuturecarbonfootprintsParliamentaryOfficeofS&T,CarbonFootprintofElectricityGenera9on,2006.CCS=carboncapture&storage

Environment

RangeofcarbonfootprintsforEuropeanlowcarbontechnologiesParliamentaryOfficeofS&T,CarbonFootprintofElectricityGenera9on,2006

Genera9onCost

Electricitygenera9oncost,withoutemissionstradingR.Tarjanne&A.Kivisto,ComparisonofElectricityGenera9onCost,LappeenrantaUniv.OfTech.,2008.

Genera9onCost

Electricitygenera9oncost,withemissionstradingR.Tarjanne&A.Kivisto,ComparisonofElectricityGenera9onCost,LappeenrantaUniv.OfTech.,2008.

Wholesaleelectricitygenera9oncostBCHydro,IntegratedElectricityPlan,2004.

Long‐runmarginalcostofgenera9ontechnologies,A$/MWh,2008McLennan,Magasnik&Associates,Compara9veCostofElectricityGenera9onTechnologies,2009.

Ability of technologies to deliver base and peak load electricity

Canadian Electricity Association, Power Generation in Canada, 2006

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Poten9almeasurestoaddressenergysecurityADB,ImprovingEnergySecurity&ReducingCarbonIntensityinAsiaandthePacific,2009

UrgencyofinvestmentrequirementsADB,ImprovingEnergySecurity&ReducingCarbonIntensityinAsiaandthePacific,2009

Likelihoodoffuelchoicesforelectricitygenera9oninthefutureADB,ImprovingEnergySecurity&ReducingCarbonIntensityinAsiaandthePacific,2009

ThePathForward

•  Mee9ngthean9cipatedsignificantincreaseingenera9onrequirementsoverthenext20yearsentailsseriousfinancial,environmentalandsocialimplica9ons.

•  Supportcon9nuedfueldiversityandthepursuitofopportuni9esthatensureaffordableelectricity,whilemee9ngincreasinglydemandingobjec9veswithrespecttosecurity,powerquality,reliabilityandtheenvironment.

•  Theuseofeachresourcetoproduceelectricityresultsindifferentlife‐cycleenvironmentalimpacts,costsandopera9ngcharacteris9cs.EachofthesefactorsneedstobecarefullyconsideredandbalancedindevelopingfutureelectricityprojectsinthePhilippines.

•  Technologicalchangesanddevelopmentprac9ceswillhaveasignificantimpactonthecon9nueduseofconven9onalsourcesandthefeasibilityofusingemergingtechnologies.

ThePathForward

•  Needtodrawuponacombina9onofelectricitygenera9ontechnologies,aswellasdemand‐sidemanagement,toensureasustainableenergyfuture.

•  Onlywithagoodgraspofthetechnologiesandtheirrangeofimplica9onscanstakeholdersworkeffec9velytogethertomeetthesesignificantsupplychallenges,andcreatetherightcondi9onstofosterasustainableelectricityfuture.

THANK YOU.