View
220
Download
5
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
15-day forecast skill during October-November-December
Todd Mitchell
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
University of Washington
Examine 15-day daily NOAA “reforecasts”
•Every day run the forecast model out 15 days.•Do this 15 times and take the mean.•Do this every day since 1979.
How useful are the 15-day October, November, December reforecasts for the Pacific Northwest?
• Examine skill in shorter forecasts.
• Skill in forecast for average of days 11-15.
• Skill in precipitable water forecasts
• Skill in warm, neutral, and cold ENSO
• Skill for phases of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (Madden and Julian oscillation)
Recommended