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AN EXAMPLECASE STUDY IN
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
TELKOM SCENARIOS
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TELKOM SCENARIOSDEVELOPMENT
PROCESS
ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING
INFORMATION WORKSHOP
ENVIRONMENT REPORTS
SCENARIO WORKSHOP
SCENARIO LOGICS WORKSHOP
SCENARIO REVISION
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ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING
PARTICIPANTS QUESTIONNAIRE
POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT
TECHNOLOGY ENVIRONMENT
NATURAL/PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT
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ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING
PARTICIPANTS QUESTIONNAIRE
WHAT CHANGES & TRENDS, IMPORTANTTO TELKOM AND ITS BUSINESS, DOYOU OBSERVE?
WHAT DRIVE THESE CHANGES? WHATFACTORS INTERACT TO PRODUCETHESE CHANGES?
WHAT IMPACT IS THIS LIKELY TO HAVEIN THE FUTURE? WHY ARE THEYIMPORTANT?
...MORE
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ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING
PARTICIPANTS QUESTIONNAIRE
WHICH HIGH IMPACT DEVELOPMENTSMAY UNFOLD IN FUNDAMENTALLYDIFFERENT DIRECTIONS, DEPENDINGON OUTCOME OF FUTURE EVENTS?(KEY UNCERTAINTIES)
WHICH OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE: -UNDER CONTROL OF TELKOM? -MAY BE INFLUENCED BY TELKOM? -NOT INFLUENCABLE NOR CONTROLLABLE? (RULES OF THE GAME)
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EXAMPLESOCIAL ENVIRONMENT
TRENDS IMPACT ON TELKOM
» IMPLICATIONS» SUGGESTED STRATEGIES
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EXAMPLESOCIAL ENVIRONMENT
TRENDS (E.G...): DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS
» GROWTH & COMPOSITION» OF POPULATION» GEOGRAPHIC
COMPOSITION/MOBILITY» LANGUAGES» LAND OWNERSHIP» URBANISATION
EDUCATION & TRAINING ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATISM LABOUR TRENDS ROLE OF CONSUMERISM SOCIO POLITICAL
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EXAMPLESOCIAL ENVIRONMENT
IMPACT ON TELKOM (E.G...) MORE MIDDLE CLASS AREAS INCREASED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE RANGE OF SERVICE TYPES DEMANDED INCREASED UNEMPLOYMENT .....
POSSIBLE SOCIAL STRATEGY (E.G...) INTERNAL MEDICAL SERVICES PROVIDE SERVICES IN OTHER LANGUAGES SUB-ECONOMIC SERVICE PROVISION .....
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ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING
PROCESS
QUESTIONNAIRE
WORKSHOP
ENVIRONMENTS REPORTS
PRESENTATIONS
KEY UNCERTAINTIES &RULES OF THE GAME
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KEY UNCERTAINTIESWORKGROUP SYNTHESIS
NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT?
....
SOCIO-POLITICAL STABILITY
....
ORIGIN, NATURE, STRENGTH, TIMINGOF FUTURE COMPETITION
ROLE OF REGULATORY BODY
....
(15)
SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
IN WORKGROUPS
KEY UNCERTAINTIES RULES OF THE GAME
INTERPRETATION
SCENARIOS 1,2 & 3
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SCENARIOSEACH SCENARIO:
BASIC SCENARIO DESCRIPTIONSTORY RELATING OUTCOMESOF KEY UNCERTAINTIES
CHAIRMAN'S REPORT FOR 1997UNDER SCENARIO
DAY IN THE LIFE OF:- KEY TELKOM EMPLOYEE KEY TELKOM STAKEHOLDERFOR 1997, UNDER SCENARIO.
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SCENARIOS
RESULTS
SKELETON, FRAMEWORK SCENARIOS
OWNERSHIP, CREDIBILITY,UNDERSTANDING, IDENTIFICATION
QUALITY: LOW
SCENARIO REFINEMENT
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TELKOM SCENARIO LOGICSFACTORS SHAPING CHANGE
DEGREE OF STABILITY INSOCIO POLITICAL SPHERE: SCENARIO 1: HIGHER SCENARIO 2: LOWER
NEW GOVT. SOCIO-ECON.MNGMNT PHILOSOPHY: S1: OPEN & ENLIGHTENED S2: CLOSED & SOCIALISTIC
DEGREE OF REGULATION INTELECOM. INDUSTRY: S1: LESS REGULATED S2: STRONGLY REGULATED MORE...
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TELKOM SCENARIO LOGICSFACTORS SHAPING CHANGE
...MORE:
METHOD OF EXACTING SATISFACTIONOF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT NEEDS: S1: HANDS OFF, INDIRECT S2: FORCED AND DIRECT
TELKOM'S ABILITY TO COPEWITH CHANGE: S1: COMPETENT S2: RESTRICTED
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TELKOM SCENARIO LOGICDERIVED FROM SKELETON SCENARIOS
1. Degree of socio-political stability
2. Degree of philoso-phical enlightenment
4. Degree of directnessof exacting needsatisfaction
3. Degree of industryregulation
5. Competence incoping with change
O
O
O
O
S
S
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REVISED SCENARIOS
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS
SOCIO-POLITICAL STABILITY
GOVERNMENT'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC PHILOSOPHY
TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY
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REVISED SCENARIOSSCENARIOS (2)
STABILITY IN SOCIO-POLITICAL SPHERE
NEW GOVERNMENT'S SOCIO-ECONOMICMANAGEMENT PHILOSOPHY
TELECOMMUNICATIONS REGULATORYSCENE
METHOD OF SATISFYING SOCIALDEVELOPMENT NEEDS
TELKOM'S COPING WITH CHANGE
HANDS OFF, LOW GEAR; REVERSE GEAR SCENARIOS
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TELKOM SCENARIOSTHE RATIONALE FOR SCENARIOS
....THE PROBLEM WITH FORECASTS, NOMATTER HOW COMPLEX OR SOPHISTI-CATED, IS THAT THEY FAIL INANTICIPATING MAJOR SHIFTS INTHE ENVIRONMENT. ....
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TELKOM SCENARIOSTHE RATIONALE FOR SCENARIOS
....UNCERTAINTY TODAY IS NOT JUSTAN OCCASIONAL TEMPORARY DEVIATIONFROM PREDICTABILITY, IT IS ABASIC STRUCTURAL FEATURE OF THEBUSINESS ENVIRONMENT. ...
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TELKOM SCENARIOSTHE RATIONALE FOR SCENARIOS
END
....PLANNERS MAY WELL ACCEPT ITAND CONCENTRATE ON A BETTERUNDERSTANDING OF THE FORCESAT WORK AND BETTER TESTINGOF UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS.....
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And the point is?
Impact: Feeling good Round two: “The demise of Telkom” –
Feeling very worried Impact & participation Participation & scenario quality
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