RV 2014: Beyond Mobility: Corridor Planning for the Bigger Picture by Eric Engstrom

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Beyond Mobility: Corridor Planning for the Bigger Picture AICP CM 1.5 Transit can do more than move people and generate revenue. More and more, cities are investing in transit to transform their communities and deliver on more expansive city-building objectives. Traditional transit goals are expanding to address the promise of livable communities, environmental stewardship, economic development and improved public health. Hear how two cities -- Seattle and Portland -- are shaping development scale and character with transit investment. Both cities are using parcel-based, pro forma-based tools to quantify the potential impact of transit projects. Join us for an interactive discussion about the capabilities and limitations of these tools. Hear their stories and learn how to evaluate your own projects against a broader set of goals using technical and market-based analysis. Moderator: Catherine Ciarlo, AICP, Senior Project Manager, CH2M Hill, Portland, Oregon Katherine Idziorek, AICP, LEED AP ND, Urban Designer, VIA Architecture, Seattle, Washington Antonio Gomez-Palacio, Principal, DIALOG, Toronto, Ontario Eric Engstrom, Principal Planner, City of Portland, Bureau of Planning & Sustainability, Portland, Oregon

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Beyond Mobility Planning for the Bigger Picture

Eric Engstrom, AICP City of Portland, OR Rail~Volu>on 2014

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Expected Growth by 2035:

•  122,000 more households

•  140,000 projected new jobs

Comprehensive Plan

Comparing Different Growth Pa:erns

Default Growth Scenario Corridor Growth Scenario Hubs Growth Scenario

Comparing Different Growth Pa:erns

What makes a city healthy?

Safety

Basic Public Services

Social Connections Businesses & Amenities

Active Transportation Quality Housing

Healthy Food Parks & Nature

Watershed Health

Performance Measures Complete Neighborhoods Tree Canopy

Access to Frequent Transit Access to Family Friendly

Bike Network Watershed Health

Housing Mix Vehicle Miles Traveled Housing Affordability Mode Split Risk of Displacement/

Gentrification Carbon/GHG Emissions

Parks Access

City Shaping Tool

Distribu>on of New Housing (2010-‐2035)

Comp Plan Context – Form

Growth Strategy

What is the streetcar predic-ve model?

An analy>cal tool to predict real estate development that would be s>mulated by streetcar and related investments.

What the model tells us… 1.  Magnitude of new development

s>mulated by public investment 2.  How local regula>ons affect

development feasibility 3.  Es>mated fiscal and economic

benefits of development

About the PredicHve Model

• Considers ownership paSerns, zoning paSerns and codes, property values, local market data, and applica>on of suppor>ve public policy. • Models individual pro-‐forma decisions that developers make •  Spreadsheet-‐based • Developed by Johnson Economics • Peer reviewed • Requires economic exper>se to run

About the PredicHve Model

LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT MODULE

PREDICTED MAGNITUDE AND FORM OF DEVELPOMENT

SUPPORTABLE VALUE

CURRENT VALUE

PRICING

COST

RETURN ZONING

PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT/ REDEVELOPMENT

RESIDUAL PROPERTY VALUE MODULE

Research on cause and effect is limited

User inputs…