US wholesale marketplace mapping for brown shoes

US WHOLESALE MARKETPLACE

MAPPING FOR MID-RANGE BROWN

SHOE BRANDS

AUTHOR: BEN COHEN-LEADHOLM

DATA SOURCE: NPD GROUP, 2008-10

CONTENTS

Total market

• Overview with historic trends

Men’s market

• Channel-specific views vs. LY

Women’s market

• Channel-specific views vs. LY

Author: Ben Cohen-Leadholm

Data source: NPD Group, 2008-102

TOTAL MARKET

WHOLESALE SIGNIFIES 90% OF $30.5 BILLION BROWN

SHOE MARKET

$30.5B

$27.5B

10% ($3.0B)

Full Price ($2.0B)

Outlet ($1.0B)

$30.5B Mono Brand Breakout

Total Wholesale Mono-brand

Retail

US Brown Shoe Channel Distribution

Channel share of Total brown shoe sales in 2010

% change

vs. LY

+5.2% +4.2% +14.4%

% Mens 34% 33% 40%

% Womens 66% 67% 60%

Gender

RELEVANT WHOLESALE CHANNELS SIGNIFY $15.5 BILLION

MARKET

Wholesale

Dept. store Moderate Field Internet /

catalog

$12.0B$12.0B

$15.5B

$27.5B (100%)

RELEVANT WHOLESALE

Relevant US Brown Shoe Channel Distribution

Apparel specialty

Athletic footwear specialty

Discount/Mass merchant

Off-price

Pro shop

Sporting goods

Warehouse clubs

2005-10

+3.3% -0.8% +4.8% +10.8%+1.6% +0.5%

% Mens 33% 19% 32% 29%37% 39%

% Womens 67% 81% 68% 71%63% 61%

Gender

ADDRESSABLE WHOLESALE MARKET VALUED AT

$10.1 BILLION

Relevant

Wholesale

catalog

$10.1B

Non-Addressable

Market

$1.9B 21%

$15.5B (100%)

ADDRESSABLE

MARKET($40-160 AUR)

32% of addressable market

% change

vs. LY

+5.2% -1.8% +11.2% +9.6% +5.7%

% Mens 34% 20% 44% 34%42%

% Womens 66% 80% 56% 66%58%

Gender

Addressable US Brown Shoe Channel Distribution

3851.4

2372.1

1463.2

850.2720.2

3785.9

2632.8

1492.8

909.4763.9

4078.3

2697.6

1555.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

3500.0

4000.0

4500.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET (MEN’S +

WOMEN’S) UP IN $60-$119 PRICE SEGMENTS

$ addressable

market

$9.3B (2008)

$9.6B (2009)

$10.1B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

Borderline price

segment

MEN’S

WHOLESALE SIGNIFIES 89% OF $10.3 BILLION MEN’S

BROWN SHOE MARKET

$10.3B

11% ($1.2B)

Full Price ($0.7B)

Outlet ($0.4B)

$10.3BMono Brand Breakout

Total Wholesale Mono-brand

Retail

Channel share of Men’s brown shoe sales in 2010

% change

vs. LY

+5.3% +3.6% +20.1%

MEN’S MARKET

Wholesale

catalog

$4.7B$4.7B

$9.2B (100%)

RELEVANT WHOLESALE

Apparel specialty

Off-price

Pro shop

Sporting goods

Warehouse clubs

2005-10

+1.1% -3.6% +1.6% +7.0%+0.6% -0.03%

ADDRESSABLE MEN’S WHOLESALE MARKET VALUED AT

$3.4 BILLION

Relevant

Wholesale

catalog

Non-Addressable

Market

$0.8B 21%

$4.4B (100%)

ADDRESSABLE

MARKET($40-160 AUR)

% change

vs. LY

+4.2% -2.8% +4.3% +14.9% +0.6%

1249.1

1156.7

1241.4

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

MEN’S ADDRESSABLE MARKET UP IN ALL PRICE

SEGMENTS

$ addressable

market

$3.4B (2008)

$3.2B (2009)

$3.4B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

Borderline price

segment

75.669.6

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

MEN’S DEPT. STORE UP AT $60-79 AND

$120-160 PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$0.76B (2008)

$0.68B (2009)

$0.67 (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

23%2008

Borderline price

segment

37.3 28.6

54.423.8

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

MEN’S MODERATE UP AT MULTIPLE

PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$1.21B (2008)

$1.16B (2009)

$1.21B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

% Δ in $

vs. LY

5% 38%

17.48.7

21.1 18.45.1

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

MEN’S MODERATE: NATIONAL CHAIN UP

AT $60-79 PRICE SEGMENT

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$0.49B (2008)

$0.49B (2009)

$0.49B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

Borderline price

segment

48% 36%

19.9 19.9

36.018.7

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

MEN’S MODERATE: SHOE CHAIN UP AT

MULTIPLE PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$0.72B (2008)

$0.67B (2009)

$0.72B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

Borderline price

segment

41% 31%

189.9198.2

116.9111.6

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

MEN’S FIELD UP AT $80-160 PRICE

SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$0.81B (2008)

$0.68B (2009)

$0.78B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

% Δ in $

vs. LY

6% 42%

181.9 180.4

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

MEN’S INTERNET/CATALOG UP AT

$100-119 PRICE SEGMENT

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$0.65B (2008)

$0.72B (2009)

$0.72B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

% Δ in $

vs. LY

48.643.8

116.7120.8

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

MEN’S INTERNET UP AT $60-79 AND

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$0.35B (2008)

$0.40B (2009)

$0.41B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

Borderline price

segment

64.060.2

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

MEN’S CATALOG UP AT $100-119 PRICE

SEGMENT

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$0.30B (2008)

$0.32B (2009)

$0.32B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

Borderline price

segment

12% 15%

WOMEN’S

WHOLESALE SIGNIFIES 91% OF $20.1 BILLION WOMEN’S

BROWN SHOE MARKET

$20.1B

$18.4B

9% ($1.8B)

Full Price ($1.3B)

Outlet ($0.5B)

$20.1BMono Brand Breakout

Channel share of Women’s brown shoe sales in 2010

% change

vs. LY

+5.1% +4.6% +11.0%

WOMEN’S MARKET

Wholesale

catalog

$7.3B7.3B

$11.0B

$18.4B (100%)

RELEVANT WHOLESALE

Apparel specialty

Off-price

Pro shop

Sporting goods

Warehouse clubs

2005-10

+4.3% -0.1% +6.6% +12.6%+2.2% +0.9%

ADDRESSABLE WOMEN’S WHOLESALE MARKET VALUED AT

$6.7 BILLION

Relevant

Wholesale

catalog

Non-Addressable

Market

$1.1B 21%

$11.0B (100%)

ADDRESSABLE

MARKET($40-160 AUR)

% change

vs. LY

+5.7% -1.5% +17.1% +6.2% +8.4%

2602.2

1414.2

510.6444.2

2629.3

1705.4

586.7523.9

2836.9

1760.9

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

3000.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

WOMENS ADDRESSABLE MARKET UP IN

$60-$119 PRICE SEGMENTS

$ addressable

market

$5.8B (2008)

$6.3B (2009)

$6.7B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

Borderline price

segment

317.5352.8

786.6750.8

321.8357.5

413.8385.1

1000.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

WOMEN’S DEPT. STORE UP AT $100-119

PRICE SEGMENT

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$2.61B (2008)

$2.65B (2009)

$2.61B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

% Δ in $

vs. LY

20.4.0 .0

75.734.1 20.8

1030.8

25.9 23.5

1000.0

1200.0

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

WOMEN’S MODERATE UP AT $60-99

PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$1.09B (2008)

$1.34B (2009)

$1.57B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

% Δ in $

vs. LY

24% 13%

.0 .0 .0

13.3 13.3

23.214.1

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

WOMEN’S MODERATE: NATIONAL CHAIN

UP AT MULTIPLE PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$0.25B (2008)

$0.28B (2009)

$0.35B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

Borderline price

segment

75% 6%

20.4.0 .0

20.8 20.8

11.8 18.8

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

WOMEN’S MODERATE: SHOE CHAIN UP

AT $60-99 PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$0.84B (2008)

$1.06B (2009)

$1.22B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

Borderline price

segment

43% 9%

96.582.7

108.190.1

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

WOMEN’S FIELD UP AT $80-160 PRICE

SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$0.98B (2008)

$1.04B (2009)

$1.10B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

% Δ in $

vs. LY

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

WOMEN’S INTERNET/CATALOG UP AT

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$1.14B (2008)

$1.32B (2009)

$1.43B (2010)

Borderline price

segment

% Δ in $

vs. LY

304.4311.3

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

WOMEN’S INTERNET UP AT MULTIPLE

PRICE SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market

$0.72B (2008)

$0.80B (2009)

$0.97B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

Borderline price

segment

16.58.3

$40-59 $60-79 $80-99 $100-119 $120-160

WOMEN’S CATALOG DOWN AT ALL PRICE

SEGMENTS

% addressable

market (2010)

$ addressable

market (2009)

$0.41B (2008)

$0.51B (2009)

$0.46B (2010)

% Δ in $

vs. LY

Borderline price

segment

US wholesale marketplace mapping for brown shoes

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